Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                   

• ‘Sloppy’ US Talk on China’s Threat Worries Some Skeptical Experts.
• US, Taiwan Plan In-Person Trade Talks as China Tensions Simmer.
• US Chip-Gear Makers Told to Wait for Relief From China Curbs.   
• Trudeau Vows 2% Tax on Buybacks, Boosts Clean-Tech Credits.
• RBA Signals More Rate Hikes as Prices, Wages to Accelerate.
  
• Bank of England Chief Says Shocks Hitting UK Worse Than in 1970s.  
• Europe Faces Widening Natural Gas Shortfall Next Year, IEA Says.
  
• Stocks Face More Selling Amid Recession Concern: Markets Wrap.
• US, Partners Opt to Set Fixed Crude Price For Russia Oil Cap.
• Oil Holds Losses With Slowdown Fears Overshadowing Tight Supply.  
• Instead of Phasing Down Coal the World Is Burning More Than Ever.  
• Carvana Sinks on Earnings Miss, Bleak Outlook on Used-Car Demand.  
• Blackstone’s $70 Billion Real Estate Fund for Retail Investors Is Losing Steam.
• Apple Pause, Lyft Layoffs Herald New Phase of Tech Austerity.  
• Twitter Advertiser Pause Widens as General Mills Taps the Brakes.
  
• Chipotle Shut Down Maine Restaurant to Defeat Union, Labor Board Alleges.  
• NYC Mayor Says Can’t Make Vaccine Exception for Kyrie Irving.

Wall Street Journal:

•   Doctors Should Prescribe Opioids for People in Pain, CDC Says.
•   The Messy Unwinding of the New World Order—in Charts.
•   Tiger Global Halts New Chinese Equities Investments.
•   Republican Opposition to Helping Ukraine Grows.
•   Bank of England Raises Key Interest Rate by 0.75 Point.

Fox News:

• Gunfire strikes child-filled family home of Republican who campaigns in bulletproof vest.
• Nancy Pelosi addresses husband's 'assault' by illegal immigrant suspect.

CNBC.com:

• Inflation to dampen holiday spending, retail trade group forecasts.
• Amazon pauses hiring for corporate workforce.
• Twilio tumbles after issuing a soft quarterly revenue projection.
• Starbucks U.S. sales climb as customers spend more on pricey drinks.
• U.S. Commerce Secretary presses plan to restrict American companies, and citizens, from making chips for China.
• Musk orders Twitter to cut infrastructure costs by $1 billion, sources say.
  

MarketWatch:           

• Atlassian stock drops 25% after earnings, potentially wiping away more than $10 billion in valuation.
• Cloudflare stock drops more than 10% after results, outlook top Street view.  
• Hedge fund giant Elliott warns looming hyperinflation could lead to ‘global societal collapse’  
• PayPal earnings forecast heads higher, but revenue outlook sends the stock lower yet again.  
• Block stock rockets higher after earnings as Square parent beats on profit.  
• Coinbase prepares for likely worse 2023, Q3 revenue drops more than 50%.  
• Funko stock plunges 20% as earnings shrink and holiday forecast calls for no growth.  
• Why the countdown to a recession begins now, according to these bond market signals.  
• DoorDash orders hit all-time records as growth continues; stock shoots higher.   
• The number of houses listed for sale soared in October — but a closer look reveals a housing market that’s cooling rapidly.

Zero Hedge:

• Gold Market Roiled As Mystery Buyer Waves In 300 Tonnes.
• 20-Pound Turkeys Will Be In Shorty Supply Ahead Of Thanksgiving, Warns US Gov't.
• China, Russia, And Iran Seek To Influence 2022 Midterm Elections: Cybersecurity Chief.
• "If You Believe...".
• Destroying Western Values To Defend Western Values. 
• "Here We Go Again:" Out-Of-Control Chinese Rocket Expected To Crash On Friday.
• Beauty Pageant's Rejection Of Transgender Women Is Legal, Appeals Court Rules.
• Chinese EV Battery Giant CATL Is Making A Global Expansion Push.
• US Stocks Remain At Risk While China Holds Tech Back.
• TME Daily: Post Powell - (s)lower for longer.
• White Suburban Women Running Back Into GOP's Arms, Leftist Elites Enraged.
• Former US Capitol Police Officer Found Guilty Of Obstructing Jan. 6 Investigation.
• US stocks and bonds declined following recent rate hikes - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• China Says 'Comrade' Vietnam Agreed To Never Allow US Bases On Its Soil.
• Victor Davis Hanson: The Left Were The Mad Scientists – We Were Their Lab Rats.
• Netanyahu & Far Right Coalition Win Big, PM Lapid Concedes Election.
• Fed-induced outflows extend ahead of NFP while Dollar soars - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• The Profit Recession Is Now Here... And The Worst Is Yet to Come.
• Watch: Alleged Iran-Linked Telegram Post Simulates Attack On Saudi Oil.
• No Relief From Powell's Hawkish Hangover: Tech Wrecks, VIX Vexed, Yield Curve Crushed.

Newsmax:  

• Polling Pro McLaughlin to Newsmax: GOP Has Expanded Voter Base.  
• Rep. Babin: Is Biden Expecting Mules to Deliver Ballots?   
• Economist Jordan: Companies Bolting From Calif.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• This J6 Political Prisoner Was Denied Mental Health Treatment On Suicide Prevention, Left Completely Alone In Filthy Conditions For Days: ‘The Pit of Hell’.
• NPR Plays Shocking Audio of Woman Getting Abortion.
• Daily Recap Podcast 11-3-22: Bolsonaro Will Fight, Dark Brandon Returns, and Dems Flip on Being the “Anti-War” Party.
• Here We Go: Pfizer and BioNTech Begin Phase 1 Study of Combined mRNA-Based Vaccine for COVID-19 and Influenza.
• Joe Biden Says Hardworking Americans Who Oppose His Unconstitutional Student Loan Bailout Are “Wrong” and “Hypocritical” (VIDEO).
• BREAKING: FAR-LEFT MI Supreme Court Rules Poll Challenger Rules Created By Michigan’s SOS That Prevents Them From Doing Their Jobs Can Be Used In Nov Election. 
• The View’s Sunny Hostin: White Suburban Women Voting Republican Are ‘Almost Like Roaches Voting for Raid’.
• Shepard Smith’s CNBC Show Canceled.
• BREAKING: Deputy Director of Milwaukee Election Commission FIRED for Sending Out Fake Military Ballots to State Residents –UPDATE: Rep Brandtjen Responds.
• Matt Tyrmand Shows More Massive Crowds in Brazil Gather to Support Bolsonaro as Military and Police Join In Support.
• Dr. Peter McCullough On What Is Really Happening When People “Die In Their Sleep”.
• CHANGE: Tens Of Thousands Of Pennsylvanians Are Leaving The Democrat Party, Becoming Republicans.
• Democrat Supporters Begin Shouting at Fetterman After He Rambles Incoherently About Playing Football in 1986 (VIDEO).
• University of Chicago Plans Winter Class “The Problem of Whiteness”.

The Epoch Times: 

• EXCLUSIVE: DeSantis Calls Out Chinese Firm’s Purchase of Florida Land for Primate Breeding Facility.
• Huawei Lobbyist Gives Thousands to Democrats’ Midterm Campaigns.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 887,564 Reports(+3,505 from prior week) Through October 21st, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 223.75 +3.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 120.0 +4.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.3 unch.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 48.5 -1.4%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.06 -2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.2 +.32%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.17%.

• S&P 500 futures -.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ACMR)/.23
• (AMCX)/1.78
• (AXL)/.24
• (CAH)/.97
• (CBOE)/1.65
• (D)/1.08
• (DKNG)/-1.05
• (DUK)/1.85
• (FLR)/.42
• (HSY)/2.10
• (LAMR)/1.35
• (MGA)/1.12
• (PPL)/.42
  

After the Close:

• (SJR)/.36
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Oct. is estimated at +198,000 versus +263,000 in Sept.
• The Unemployment Rate for Oct. is estimated to rise to 3.6% versus 3.5% in Sept.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Sept.
• The Labor Force Participation Rate for Oct. is estimated at 62.3% versus 62.3% in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.