Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:               

• China’s Bank Loans Lowest Since 2017 as Economy Slows.  
• ‘Value Annihilation’ Haunts Investors in China Property Bonds.
• Asian Equities, US Futures Extend Post-CPI Rally: Markets Wrap.
• FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried Faces SEC Probe as His Empire Crumbles.
  
• FTX Implosion Rattles Retail Investors Who Fear Their Money Is Gone.
  
• FTX Latest: SEC Probes Bankman-Fried as Bahamas Freezes Assets.
• Twitter’s Cybersecurity Chief Is Leaving the Social-Media Company.  
• Apple’s $191 Billion Single-Day Surge Sets Stock-Market Record.
  
• US Inflation Finally Offers Relief, But There’s Still a Long Way to Go.

Wall Street Journal:

• Rise in Consumer Prices Slowed to 7.7% in October.
  
• Before the Midterms, Biden Abused the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its purpose was to protect national security, not to reduce gasoline prices in a political campaign.
• The FTX Crypto Fiasco. Another lesson in the risks of joining a mania in speculative assets.
• Amazon Launches Cost-Cuts Review.
• Juul Secures Financing to Avoid Bankruptcy, Plans to Cut 30% of Jobs.
• Home-Price Growth Slows Under Tide of Rising Mortgage Rates.
• FTX Tapped Into Customer Accounts to Fund Risky Bets.
• Biden, Xi to Meet Monday in Indonesia.
• Silicon Valley Poured Money Into FTX, With Few Strings Attached.
• Apple Supply Crunch on Premium iPhone Threatens to Derail Record Sales Run.

Fox News:

• EXCLUSIVE:Kari Lake lays out odds of being Arizona's governor as vote count continues.
• 4 key races still in limbo that will decide balance of power in Senate.
• Biden's student loan handout dealt major legal blow.

CNBC.com:

• Fed officials welcome inflation news but still see tighter policy ahead.
• Elon Musk tells Twitter staff he sold Tesla stock to save the social network.
• Carl Icahn says he still thinks we are in a bear market despite Thursday’s rally.
• Nearly 2% of healthy infants hospitalized with RSV before first birthday, study finds.
• United gives pilots 5% raises early, citing return to profitability.
  

MarketWatch:              

• Curb your enthusiasm — Thursday’s explosive rally in stocks likely means the bear market is alive and well.
  
• ‘Bedazzled by money’: Democratic ties to Sam Bankman-Fried under scrutiny after FTX collapse.
  
• The rise in food prices slowed in October, but some items increased by up to 43%. So what’s going on?

Zero Hedge:

• Bankman-Fried Faces SEC Probe, FTX Assets Frozen By Bahamas Regulator.
• Loan Demand For Mortgage Loans Crashes To Depression Levels.
• The Election Won't Change Much In DC. The Real Battle Is Now In The States.
• Lawyer For Canadian Commission Investigating Trucker Protests Collapses During Proceedings.
• Conservative Candidates Take Note – DeSantis Dominated In Florida For These Reasons.
• Blizzard Pounds Plains, Midwest; "Polar Vortex" To Unleash Chill Nationwide.
• "Difficult Times Ahead": Musk Says Twitter Bankruptcy Possible As FTC Expresses "Deep Concern".
• Max pain market can't get enough.
• JPMorgan Warns FTX Collapse Will Spark "Cascade Of Margin Calls".
• LA's 'Soros DA' Gets Charges Dropped Against Election Software CEO. 
• SBF Issues Mea Culpa: "I'm Sorry... I F**ked Up" As Alameda Research Winds Down Trading.
• Biden Boasts Ukraine Aid To Keep Flowing Even Through GOP-Led House.
• US stocks rocketed and yields dropped by the most since 2009 after softer-than-expected US CPI data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Arizona's Maricopa County To Take Until "Early Next Week" To Process 400,000 Ballots.
• US Consumers Will Be Spending Much Less This Holiday Season Because Many Of Them Are Already Tapped-Out.
• CPI Miss Sparks 3rd Biggest Short Squeeze Ever: Stocks, Bonds, Gold Soar As Dollar Crashes.

Newsmax:  

• Warnock, Walker Pivot to Overtime in Georgia's Vital Senate Contest.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Brazil’s Ministry of Defense Twitter Issues Statement on Audit Report: “It is not possible to guarantee that the programs that were executed in the electronic voting machines are free from malicious insertions”.
• Maricopa County Now Admits That Over 30% Of Polling Locations Were Affected By Machine Failures, NOT 20% As Previously Stated – But They Want Us To Believe Only 17,000 Ballots Transported For Tabulation.
• EXCLUSIVE: Interview with Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai on Social Media Censorship and the Deep State’s “Limited Hangout” Response and Cover Up.
• That Was Quick… PA Governor-Elect Josh Shapiro Vows to Crackdown on Fracking and Energy Sector in State – Affecting Thousands of PA Jobs (VIDEO).
• Bolton Mocks the First Amendment While Having Reporter Dragged From Event for Questioning Him on WikiLeaks, Iraq, Afghanistan (VIDEO).
• Breaking: Maricopa County Begins Processing Election Day Drop-off Ballots… Still Slow-Walking Ballots – Like a Banana Republic.
• WTH? Sheriff’s Deputies Surround Maricopa County Tabulation Center, Perched On Roof, Barricades and Fence Set Up Around Perimeter.
• Supreme Court Justice Sotomayor Rejects Emergency Appeal From NYC Workers Who Lost Their Jobs Due to Mayor Adams’ Covid Vaccine Mandate.
• RAV’s Ben Bergquam Banned from Maricopa County Press Room After TGP’s Conradson Was Banned from Room – Real News Not Allowed! (VIDEO).
• Emerald Robinson and Mike Lindell Show More “Drop and Roll” Activities in Key 2022 Races.

The Epoch Times:

• Book Review: ‘Spies and Lies: How China’s Greatest Covert Operations Fooled the World’: Unmasking China’s Secret Intent.
• CCP’s Budget Deficit Reaches Nearly $1 Trillion.

Twitter: 

• @songpinganq - Thread - Chinese government spending billions of US dollars to continuously build massive quarantine camps all over the country. Here are some: 1st Shangdong province. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 891,607 Reports(+4,043 from prior week) Through October 28th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +1.75% to +2.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 165.0 -22.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 80.0 -16.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.37 +.06%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 46.9 +2.33%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.87 +13.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.0 +1.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.03%.

• S&P 500 futures +.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AQN)/.16
  

After the Close:

• (SJR)/.36

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 59.5 versus 59.9 in Oct.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations for Nov. is estimated at +5.1% versus a +5.0% gain in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The (ASML) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.