Tuesday, November 15, 2022

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Diminished Earnings Outlook Fears, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume:  Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.8 +8.8%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.99%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 48.3 -1.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.3 -.63%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 -.8%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.9 +3.9% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 +5.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .79 -9.2%
  • NYSE Arms .99 -13.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.9 -.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 361.55 -.41%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 406.0 -71
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.60 -2.7% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 328.8 -1.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 195.0 basis points -8.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 141.64 -1.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 240.66 -1.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.7 +.8%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 33.25 basis points -2.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 42.75 basis points -2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -52.25 basis points -1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  146.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 132.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.22 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.55 -.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.15% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -57.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.1 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 121.5 euros/megawatt-hour +6.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.8 +2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.6 +5.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.4 -3.7 points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.71 -.16:  Growth Rate +11.4% -.2 percentage point, P/E 17.3 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.87 -10.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.0% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.02% unch.: CPI YoY +7.60% -2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 50.7%(+3.2 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 47.7%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
US Covid-19:
  • 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -84.4%(+.6 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +45 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +57 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -94 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/commodity/industrial/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long

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