Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                      

• G-20 Statement in Doubt as US, Russia Fail to Agree at Asean.  
• Global Banks Are Quietly Cutting China Jobs as Big Bang Fizzles.
  
• China’s Covid Zero and Housing Slump Drag on Growth Engines.
• China Plans Property Rescue as Xi Surprises With Policy Shifts.
• Turkey’s Erdogan Finds Himself a Surprise G-20 Power Broker.
• UK Home Sellers Slash Asking Prices After Mortgage Rates Jump.
• SoftBank Falls 9% After Loss and No New Buyback Program.
• Asian Stocks to Rise on China Policy; Dollar Gains: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Extends Gain on China Demand Optimism as Market Tightens.
• FTX Falls Into Bankruptcy So Fast Court Papers Get Left Behind.
  
• FTX Latest: Dim Picture for Customers; Criminal Probe Possible.  
• Big Investors Are Giving Up on Crypto Markets Going Mainstream.
• Big Tech Loses Sway as S&P 500 Becomes More Exxon, Less Amazon.  
• Fed’s Waller Says There’s a ‘Ways to Go’ Before Rate Hikes Done.
• Dollar Climbs as Fed’s Waller Pushes Back on Dovish Rate Bets.
• Wall Street Managers Are Pushing Back on Easing Inflation Hopes.

Wall Street Journal:

• Investors Question Whether Big Tech’s Rebound Can Last.
• Dozens of Americans Are Barred From Leaving China, Adding to Tensions.
• GOP Weighs Leadership Choices, Looks for Answers.
• Biden’s Missing Taiwan Strategy. As he meets with Xi Jinping, the President lacks a credible trade agenda for the Pacific.
• JPMorgan Dodges a Buyout-Loan Bullet.
• The Classic 60-40 Investment Strategy Falls Apart. ‘There’s No Place to Hide.’.
• G-20 Discord Threatens Efforts to Prop Up Global Economy.
• Deadly Explosion Hits Busy Istanbul Pedestrian Street.
• Inflation, Supply-Chain Woes Hit Medical-Device Makers.
• Labor Market Mystery: Where Are the Older Gen Z Workers?
• China’s Global Port Investments Give Rise to Security Worries.

CNBC:

• Sam Bankman-Fried’s Alameda quietly used FTX customer funds without raising alarm bells, say sources.
• FTX halts trading and withdrawals, moves assets to cold wallet after $477M suspected hack.
• Ford vs. GM: Same industry, two increasingly different companies.
• ‘Huge regime shift’: Active managers see boost from the energy trade.

Zero Hedge:

• FTX Facing Criminal Probe By Bahamas Authorities, But Musk Counters There Will Be "No Investigation" Of "Major Democrat Donor" SBF.
• Exxon Mobil Makes First Oil Discovery In Angola In 20 Years.
• "We're Facing The Collapse Of Everything" - Michael Snyder Warns Of "The End-Times".
• Goldman, TS Lombard Confirm Fed Inflation Target Hike Now Inevitable.
• "Hints Of Many Crises - Lehman, Enron, MF Global - But No Lender Of Last Resort... Like Banking In The Late-1800s".
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Ghislaine Maxwell Befriends Double-Murderer, Becomes Prison Darling.
• Zelensky And Bush To Give Joint Pro-War Presentation. 
• Stanford Racial Discrimination: 'Wakanda Forever' Tickets, Bus-Seats Reserved For Black Students.
• Six Dead, 53 Injured After "Bomb Attack" Rips Through Busy Istanbul Street.
• Democrats Seal Control Of Senate, AZ Governor Race Still Tight.
• The Missing Factor In Britain's Economic Recovery Plan.
• COVID-19 Mortality In England "Extremely Rare" Among Under-20s: Official Study..
• A Cold Winter For Europe: Blame Strategic Blindness.
• The Decline of the West: Spengler In Today's World.
• Eerie Similarities Between Democratic Party And Chinese Communist Party Lingo.

MarketWatch.com:    

• Tom Brady, Steph Curry and Kevin O’Leary set to lose big from FTX bankruptcy filing.

NewsMax:

• Nevada Dem Win May Spell Doom for McConnell. 
• Dems Aim to Raise Debt Ceiling Before GOP Controls House.
• Kari Lake Bashes Arizona Election Process as a 'Laughingstock'.
• Nevada Demo Win May Spell Doom for McConnell.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried Admits FTX Was a Crypto Laudromat for Ukrainian Government. 
• Maricopa County Election Judge Believes the Machines Were Programmed to Reject Ballots on Election Day.
• EXCLUSIVE: The Cause of Arizona’s Machine Tabulator Failure Identified – Ballots Larger than Printer Parameters – Willful Incompetence?
• WAYNE ROOT: You’ve Been Gaslighted.
• Behind Closed Doors: More on Runbeck Election Services in Maricopa County and the Scanning of Ballot Envelopes.
• 10,000 Votes Dropped on Friday Morning Giving Maryland US House Seat to the Democrats.
• Here’s a Close Look at Adrian Fontes and His Path of Destruction in Arizona Politics.
• The Number of House Seats Continues to Dwindle As GOP Leaders Remain Silent and Ignore Reality.
• Chuck Schumer: Midterms a “Vindication” for Democrats’ Agenda After Clinching Senate Majority.
• Communists Play Smash-Mouth: Laxalt Announced Dem Opponent Would Have to Get an Impossible 63% of Remaining Ballots to Win – THE NEXT DAY SHE GETS 63%.
• Lauren Boebert Pulls Ahead in Colorado, Which Could Mean Weeks of Recounts.
• Once Again… Another Democrat Takes the Lead After 4 Days of Delayed Ballot Counting – And Race Is Immediately Called.
• UPDATE: Gateway Pundit Files Federal Civil Rights Lawsuit Against Maricopa County Officials – READ IT HERE!

The Epoch Times: 

• China’s COVID-19 Quarantine Facilities Like ‘Concentration Camps:’ Resident.
• Biden’s Climate Change Policies Work More in China’s Interest: Ex-NSA Officer.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 894,850 Reports(+3,243 from prior week) Through November 4th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.5 -15.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 74.5 -5.5 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 50.5 +1.5%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.87 +8.0 basis points. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.7 +.8%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.34%.
• S&P 500 futures -.14%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.23%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (TSEM)/.61
• (TSN)/1.72
  

After the Close:

• (JJSF)/.91
• (SJR)/.36
• (VVV)/.56
  

Economic Releases 

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Brainard speaking, Eurozone Industrial Production report and the Deutsche Bank Industrials Conference could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.