Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:               

• China Property Crisis Imperils $1.6 Trillion of Local State Debt.   
• Japan’s Credit Ratings May Hinge on BOJ Policy Changes, S&P Says.  
• Yen Speculators Bow to Japan’s Stealth Strategy as CPI Looms.
• Asian Stocks Fall Amid Crypto Slump Before CPI: Markets Wrap.  
• Alaska’s Pricey Crude Is Pushed Out of China by Russian Oil.
• FTX Warns of Bankruptcy Without Rescue for $8 Billion Shortfall.
• US Justice Department Looking Into FTX Turmoil During SEC Probe.  
• Short Seller Jim Chanos Warns the Crypto Crackdown Is Coming Now.   
• Carney Says ‘Significant’ US Inflation May Spur Fed to Do More.
• Shrunken Mississippi River Slows US Food Exports When World Needs Them Most.  
• Numbed Treasury Market Takes an Ugly 10-Year Auction in Stride.
• A Klimt Sells for $105 Million, Setting a New Auction Record.
• Cezanne Painting Sells for a Record $138 Million at Auction.   
• Apple Taps Facebook Veteran as Information Chief After Departures.  
• Tech IPO Candidates Leap Ahead of Bigger Peers in Cutting Jobs.  
• A Tiny Lab Finds Danger on Drugstore Shelves While the FDA Lags Behind.  
• Disney Drop Sends Media Stocks Toward Worst Decline in 30 Years.

Wall Street Journal:

• Senate Control Up in Air as Georgia Race Heads to Runoff.
• Arizona Races Remain in Flux.
• Election Live Updates.
• Crypto Prices Fall Further.
• Heard on the Street: Crypto Has Reinvented Bank Runs.
• Russia Orders Withdrawal From Kherson, Only Regional Ukrainian Capital It Held.
• Redfin Shuts Home-Flipping Business, Cuts 13% of Staff.
• Brittney Griner Is Moved to Russian Penal Colony.
• Under Xi Jinping, Women in China Have Given Up Gains.
• Some Investors Bet Fed Could Lift Rates to Two-Decade High.
• Carvana’s Earnings Crash Spurs Bond Selloff.

Fox News:

• WATCH:Biden vows to do 'nothing' different even as majority say US is heading in the 'wrong direction'.

CNBC.com:

• Binance backs out of FTX rescue, leaving the crypto exchange on the brink of collapse.
• Bitcoin falls to its lowest level in nearly two years as Binance abandons FTX deal.
• Wall Street layoffs pick up steam as Citigroup and Barclays cut hundreds of workers.
• Here’s a rundown of tech companies that have announced layoffs in 2022.
• Beyond Meat reports wider-than-expected loss, falling revenue.
• Cryptocurrencies tank as FTX fallout continues to roil markets: CNBC Crypto World.
  

MarketWatch:            

• Biden suggests no pivot after midterm elections: ‘I’m not going to change anything’.
  
• Binance CEO in internal memo: ‘I had very little knowledge of the internal state of things at FTX’.  
  
• Investors fear potential FTX bankruptcy spilling over to reeling crypto, stock markets.  
• Dow sheds nearly 650 points as stocks suffer worst day after any election in a decade.  
• Housing market should brace for mortgage rates hitting 10% in 2023, investment banker says.

Zero Hedge:

• Regardless Of Who's Elected, Imperial Corruption Rules The Nation.
• "Beyond Our Ability To Help" - Binance Abandons FTX Deal; SBF Admits $8 Billion Shortfall, Bankruptcy Likely.
• Midterms Post-Mortem: Comprehending GOP's Underwhelming Performance.
• World's Top Chipmaker To Build Another US Plant In Arizona.
• Doug Casey On The WEF's Plan For Mankind And What Comes Next.
• Midterms And Markets: The Good News And The Bad News.
• India Pledges To Buy More Russian Oil, Mulls Joint Weapons Production.
• Here Are All The Funds That Are About To Lose Billions In FTX.
• Beijing Insists On Zero-COVID Policy But Blames Local Governments For Excessive Measures.
• From Riches To Rags: Peloton Co-Founder Starts A Rug Company.
• Biden's Inner Pluskat: How The Loss Of Control Of Either House Could Impact The President.
• Watch Live: President Biden Takes 'Un-Victory' Lap After Midterms.
• US stocks declined amid crypto contagion - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• SBF killed the "mid-term" rally....
• Stocks sold and Dollar bid as crypto crash deepens into US CPI - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• 'Meh' Midterms & FTX Fiasco Spark 'Red Wave' Across Stocks & Crypto.

Reuters:

• Fed's Kashkari: any talk of pivot is 'entirely premature'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• AZ State Representative-Elect Austin Smith In Victory Speech: “What Happened In Maricopa County Is CRIMINAL” – “Get Rid Of These STUPID Dominion Voting Machines”.
• Publius 2.0: It Feels Like We Are Watching the First Wholly Manufactured Election in Our History. 
• “I Seriously Feel Like We Are Watching the First Wholly Manufactured Election in Our History” – Roger Stone on the 2022 Election.
• We Caught Them Again: TGP Catches Late-Night Operatives Moving Van-Loads of Suspicious Ballots Way After Legal Deadline in Detroit, Michigan.
• Ten Reasons Why Kevin McCarthy Should NEVER Be Republican Speaker of the House.
• Here’s Zuckerberg’s Letter to the 11,000 Facebook (Meta) Employees He Fired As Holidays Approach.
• It’s Time for Mitch McConnell to Go – GOP Senate Votes to Keep Him Leader on November 16.
• Project Veritas: Ballot Box Keys Left Unattended on Top of Philadelphia Ballot Drop Box on Election Night (VIDEO).
• Democrat Pennsylvania State Rep Wins Reelection Despite Being Dead.
• Don’t Feel Alone – 7 Out of 10 Americans Are Unhappy with the State of the Union – We Are the Tide.
• Georgia Update: Herschel Walker Is Only GOP Candidate Not to Win Outright.

The Epoch Times:

• China’s Market Environment Deteriorates as Foreign Investment Confidence Drops to New Low.
• ‘Industrial Sabotage’: Former Army Pilot Sentenced for Spying for China.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 891,607 Reports(+4,043 from prior week) Through October 28th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 187.5 +6.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 96.0 +11.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.02 unch.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 46.7 -.91%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.93 -2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.0 -.01%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.72%.

• S&P 500 futures +.18%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (MT)/1.45
• (AZN)/1.51
• (BDX)/2.74
• (DDS)/4.87
• (RL)/2.08
• (RBC)/1.66
• (TPR)/.76
• (WRBY)/.01
• (WE)/-.44
• (YETI)/.59
  

After the Close:

• (BZH)/2.06
• (FLO)/.29
• (POSH)/-.28

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in Sept.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in Sept.
• The CPI YoY for Oct. is estimated to rise +7.9% versus an +8.2% increase in Sept.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Oct.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 220K versus 217K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1487K versus 1485K prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for Oct. is estimated at -$90.0B versus -$165.1B in Sept.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams, Fed's George speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, UK GDP report, 30Y T-Note auction and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.