Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Nonsensical US Election Results, Crypto Crash, China Hard-Landing Fears, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.9 +1.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 47.8 -3.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 151.5 unch.

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 -.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 50.4 -.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 -12.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.63 +54.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 90.8 +2.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 374.1 +3.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 474.0 -4.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 117.14 +2.6% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 363.9 +2.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 212.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 183.79 -3.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 276.27 +2.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.0 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 35.25 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 39.5 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -57.25 basis points -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  165.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 130.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.19 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.0 -.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.19% +5.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -48.25 basis points (2s/10s) +5.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 85.8 USD/Metric Tonne -3.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 110.4 euros/megawatt-hour -6.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.5 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.0 -.5 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.5 +.7 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.32 +.10:  Growth Rate +11.9% -.1 percentage point, P/E 16.3 -.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.90 unch.
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.0% +40.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.16% unch.: CPI YoY +8.09% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 -5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 50.6%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 45.1%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.7%(+0.0 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -196 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -86 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -52 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial/tech/commodity/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long