Tuesday, June 20, 2023

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.0 +.25 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 59.25 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 111.5 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.2 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 62.5 +.8%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .20 -4.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.5 -.15%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.23%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, China Economic "Hard-Landing" Worries, Technical Selling, Commodity/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.1 -.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .85%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.9 -3.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 162.2 -.53%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8. -.34%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.8 +6.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 -6.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .83 -28.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.54 +71.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.6 +.27%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 374.4 +1.2%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 396.0 -7.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.2 +.93% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 291.9 +.45%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.0 basis points unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.7 +.13%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 217.5 +1.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.4 -.64%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.5 basis points unch.
  • TED Spread 29.25 basis points -3.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.5 +1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 159.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 726.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 81.0 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.2 -.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.22% +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 111.1 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 38.7 euros/megawatt-hour  +10.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.2 +8.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -93.1 -.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.4 +1.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +2.7% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.10 n/a:  Growth Rate +3.4% n/a, P/E 18.9 n/a
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.23% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 208.75 n/a: Growth Rate +37.2% n/a, P/E 36.9 n/a
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .22 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.17 -13.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -97.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.77% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.22% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 66.6%(-1.9 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 66.6%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -208 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -104 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +159 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -1.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -3.7% 2) Social Media -2.7% 3) Energy -2.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CLB, PANW, BA, STLA, CNQ, QURE, PLTR, NNOX, BALL, VTLE, CROX, TM, ATAT, GPK, SMCI, PGEN, PLNT, NETI, AMCX, WB, RCEL, CSIQ, VRDN, HPK, ACLX, JKS, OVV, ABCM, ENVX, HPK, ENPH, OLN, SYM, MAG, EH, PDD, SEDG, DRD, UPST, CIVI, EDU, BILI, PKST, LMND and OPRA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FDX 2) HPE 3) SPCE 4) COHR 5) SMG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) EGIO 2) ACLX 3) EGIO 4) BYND 5) XPEV
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Homebuilding +.8% 2) Gambling +.6% 3) Medical Equipment -.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DICE, VERA, LITE, VYGR, GNRC, HCC, CRNC and DNLI
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) DFLI 2) ORGN 3) GNRC 4) SPCE 5) BOTZ
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SRDX 2) SPCE 3) DICE 4) VERA 5) EVLO

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (PDCO)/.70
  • (WGO)/1.80
After the Close: 
  • (KBH)/1.33
  • (SCS)/.01
Economic Releases   
  • None of note

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell testifying to House, Fed's Mester speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, 20Y T-Bond auction, Canadian CPI report, JPMorgan Energy/Power/Renewables Conference and the (DLTR) investor conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running +14.1% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.7 +4.9
  • 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
  • 26.0% of Issues Advancing, 71.2% Declining
  • 46 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
  • 51.4%(-1.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.0 -9.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.9 -3.0%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,466.4 +.45%
  • 1-Day Vix 8.8 -29.4%
  • Vix 14.5 +18% 
  • Total Put/Call .78 -32.8%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.98 +117.7%