Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AXP)/2.81
• (ALV)/1.41
• (AN)/5.91
• (CMA)/1.86
• (IPG)/.61
• (RF)/.59
• (SLB)/.71
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases  

7:00 am EST

• Bloomberg July US Economic Survey.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK Retail Sales report and the (VTEX) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• VC Firms Investing in China’s Tech Companies Draw US House Panel Investigation.
• Russia Could Attack Civilian Grain Ships in Black Sea, US Warns.
• Brazil’s All-Powerful Sugar Industry Is Souring the Country on EVs.
• Japan Trade Balance Swings to Surprise Surplus in June.
• Musk Says Tesla to Spend Over $1 Billion on Dojo Supercomputer.
• Musk Bets the House of Tesla on Low Prices and Razor-Thin Margins.
• Elliott Builds Stake in Catalent to Push for Changes.
• Goldman Profit Tumbles on Real Estate Hits, Dealmaking Slide.
• 'Apple GPT' Is Being Developed to Challenge OpenAI and Google's Bard.
• Nadella’s Microsoft Payouts Top $1 Billion on 1,000% Stock Boom.

Zero Hedge:

• 'Most Contemptible Song Of The Decade': Country Music TV Bans Jason Aldean's "Try That In A Small Town" Video
• Biden DoD Lets Transgender Service Members Skip Deployments, Receive Indefinite Physical Fitness Waivers: Confidential Memo.
• The Collapse Of The "Risk-Free" Delusion: Implications For The $133 Trillion Bond Market.
• 'No Way To Escape Haze': Canadian Wildfire Smoke Pours Into North Florida While African Dust Approaches From South.
• The Django Syndrome: What The Latest Racist Attacks On Clarence Thomas Say About Our Rage Politics.
• Bumps Appear In Surfing's Gender Equality Wave.
• US General Mark Milley Claims Ukraine Counter Offensive 'Far From Failure'.
• Taiwan Says It Detected A Record 16 Chinese Warships Around Island.
• Wheat Prices Soar As Russia Considers Ships Heading To Ukraine As "Carriers Of Military Cargo".
• Shrinkflation: You're Paying More And Getting Less.
• Watch: National Security Head Says UFOs Having 'Real Impact' On USAF Pilots.
• US stocks were choppy as participants digested data, earnings and tech-related headlines - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Meta's Threads 'Bombs' As Daily Active Users Halved.
• "This Year Is The Worst": SF Walgreens Store Suffers 20 Thefts A Day, Chains Up Freezer Section.
• Illinois Delegated Control Over Its "Ban On Book Bans" To Self-Described Marxist.
• There is always a squeeze somewhere.
• Stocks and bonds chop on mixed earnings, underwhelming AI updates, and soft economic data - Newsquawk US Market Wrap. 
• Another Day, Another Short-Squeeze For Stocks; Yield Curve Yells 'Recession'.

Wall Street Journal:

• A Once Unpaved Stretch of Highway Is One of Florida’s Hottest Rental Markets.
• Homeowners Don’t Want to Sell, So the Market for Brand-New Homes Is Booming.
• Stanford President Resigns.

CNBC.com:

• IBM reports earnings beat, but misses on revenue.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Netflix, Tesla, IBM and more.
• What could crush a growing bull market? Cramer lays out potential hazards.
• House committee takes aim at U.S. venture capital firms for investments in Chinese A.I.
• Oddity starts trading with a 35% debut pop — here’s what the beauty and tech company does.

MarketWatch:  

• United Airlines earnings: Even higher 2023 profit expected despite last month’s meltdown.
• Carvana’s stock has roared back from the brink. This chart shows its meteoric surge.
• Netflix seems immune (so far) from Hollywood’s shutdown.
• Tesla reports 47% rise in sales for its second quarter, but profitability shrinks.
• Disney lacks easy fixes to its numerous challenges, analyst warns.
• Investors are the most bullish on stocks since before the 2022 bear market, says Vanguard.

Newsmax:

• GOP Doctors Slam CDC Trans 'Chestfeeding' Guidance.

Fox News:

• Federal prosecutor who donated to Biden 'refused' to charge Hunter: whistleblower.
• Woke rush to 'cancel' Jason Aldean over anti-crime song seems to have opposite effect.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• ‘At Least 25-30’ IRS Agents in Tactical Gear Raid Business in Stuart, Florida.
• Emmy Award-Winning CBS Meteorologist Dies Suddenly at 51.
• America Last! Biden Regime to Send Another $1.3 Billion of Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine.
• BACKFIRE: Liberal Has-Been Singer Sheryl Crow Gets Obliterated After Sending Snarky, Clueless Tweet to Jason Aldean Over His Music Video -“Try That In A Small Town” SOARS to Number 1 on iTunes (VIDEO).
• Nigel Farage On “Chinese Social Credit System”: “They Revoked my Bank Account Over “Stasi-Style” Report on Brexit, “Racism” and Meeting Tennis Star Novak Djokovic.
• Orwellian France: Parliament Approves Legislation Opening Door to Mass Surveillance, Making It Easier for Authorities to Spy on Electronic Devices.

The Epoch Times:

• US Venture Capital Firms Are Supporting China’s Military: House Panel.

Twitter: 

• @songpinganq - China's 'social credit score system' monitoring social media and web use to make it ''hard for the discredited to take a single step''. Will it come to the West? Has it, already? (video)
• @TheEconomist - Bud Light is being dethroned by Modelo Especial.
• @JackPosobiec - CMT is owned by Paramount, the same network that makes Yellowstone. Can’t make this up. (video)
• @NewsMax - Senator @RandPaul lays out the case for prosecuting Dr. Fauci for lying to Congress. "I want to know when Merrick Garland is going to prosecute him." (video)
• @acemaxx - #China's share of US #imports has been declining as American firms have diversified their manufacturing base to countries like #Vietnam and #Taiwan — with plans to bring capacity back to the US as well. (graph)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 969,243 Reports(+2,348 from prior week) Through June 30th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.0 +.75 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 61.75 +1.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 113.2 USD/Metric Tonne +2.6%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.6 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 64.0 +.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .45 -3.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.0 +.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.07%.

• S&P 500 futures -.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.44%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Financial/Telecom Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.5 +1.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .69%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 64.2 +.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 165.0 +.31%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 +1.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.4 +3.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 163.0 +48.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .80 +1.3%

• NYSE Arms .91 -22.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.0 +.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 341.7 +.16%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 388.0 -9.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.4 -.9% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 260.18 -.85%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 164.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.7 -.94%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 203.97 +.98%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.6 -.84%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 18.25 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.5 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 718.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 77.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.6 +.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.41% +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 112.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.9 euros/megawatt-hour  -.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 63.7 -4.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -121.9 +6.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.1 +.1 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(48 of 500 reporting) +9.0% -2.0 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.59 +.09:  Growth Rate +3.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.8 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.17% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 217.74 +.77: Growth Rate +43.1% +.5 percentage point, P/E 38.0 +.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .43 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.19 +13.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -100.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.42% +3.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.19% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 87.9%(+3.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 73.5%(+4.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -46 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -38 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +100 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABT)/1.05
• (AAL)/1.58
• (BMI)/.65
• (BX)/.93
• (DHI)/2.83
• (FITB)/.83
• (FCX)/.36
• (GPC)/2.34
• (JNJ)/2.62
• (KEY)/.32
• (MAN)/1.62
• (MMC)/2.12
• (NEM)/.41
• (PM)/1.50
• (POOL)/6.17
• (SAP)/1.29
• (SNA)/4.58
• (TRV)/2.05
• (TFC)/1.00
  

After the Close: 

• (OZK)/1.42
• (COF)/3.26
• (CSX)/.49
• (ISRG)/1.33
• (KNX)/.55
• (PPG)/2.13
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 240K versus 237K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1725K versus 1729K prior.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for July is estimated to rise to -10.0 versus -13.7 in June.
  

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for June is estimated to fall to 4.2M versus 4.3M in May.
• Leading Index for June is estimated to fall -.6% versus a -.7% decline in May.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The PBOC interest rate decision, Japan CPI report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (AIR) investment day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +11.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.4 +.2
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 61.6% of Issues Advancing, 35.6% Declining
• 142 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 60.1%(+2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 69.0 +3.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.1 -.02%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,737.5 -.4%
• 1-Day Vix 9.8 +2.2%
  
• Vix 13.5 +1.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .78 -1.3%
• TRIN/Arms .97 -17.1%
  

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.25 -1.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 60.5 -1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 112.3 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.5 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 64.1 -.15%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .38 +2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.5 -.23%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.14%.

• S&P 500 futures -.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.