Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (FCEL)/-.08

After the Close: 

• (CASY)/3.36
• (ORCL)/1.15
  

Economic Releases  

11:00 am EST

• The NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Italy Industrial Output report, 3Y T-Note auction, Piper Sandler Frontiers Conference,  Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference, Barclays Financial Services Conference and the BofA AI Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -19.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.9 +1.4
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 60.1% of Issues Advancing, 36.2% Declining
• 39 New 52-Week Highs, 64 New Lows
• 43.7%(+.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.0 +2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.0 -.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,687.3 +.03%
• 1-Day Vix 8.7 -21.7%
  
• Vix 13.7 -4.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .96 -12.7%
• TRIN/Arms 1.08 -10.7%
  

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.5 +1.0 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 72.25 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 113.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.29%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.2 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 71.5 +.5%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 39.0 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.5 +.07%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures unch.

• S&P 500 futures +.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on China Economy Worries, Dollar Strength, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.7 +1.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .61%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.9 -1.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.07 -.54%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 +1.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.7 +.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 +17.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.03 -16.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.25 +33.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 +.11%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 313.98 +.47%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 344.0 -10
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 82.95 -.2% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 270.45 +.41%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 173.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.3 +1.59%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 201.39 -2.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.88 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 21.25 basis points -2.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 170.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 807.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 73.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.2 -.12%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.45% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.76 euros/megawatt-hour +5.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.2 +2.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -78.0 -5.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.5 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) -5.8%  unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 238.41 +.06:  Growth Rate +8.4% unch., P/E 18.7 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +25.4% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 245.64 -.03: Growth Rate +48.1% -.1 percentage point, P/E 31.4 -.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .42 -5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .21 +8.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -69.5 basis points (2s/10s) +4.0 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.58% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.03% unch.: CPI YoY +3.82% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 53.6%(+.7 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 53.3%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -291 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -114 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/transport/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware -2.8% 2) Digital Health -2.6% 3) Disk Drives -2.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SAIC, AAN, OSTK, PDD, VSH, ROL, ODD, INTA, FMC, TNDM, STX, SUM, PODD, ABM, TTC, AMKR, VRNT, PHR, MEI and VFS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) STX 2) CHPT 3) AMX 4) PATH 5) FE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AI 2) SPWH 3) YEXT 4) CHPT 5) VRNT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Pharma +1.5% 2) Homebuilders +1.3% 3) Utilities +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GIII, BASE, DBI, PATH, CBAY, APPN, GH, RARE, ASAN, HSAI, CNC, GTLB, HRMY, WRK, GCT, GNL, PEN, MORN and TMUS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RENT 2) BHP 3) CME 4) CME 5) BAX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ACFN 2) GIII 3) CVGW 4) CNC 5) CBAY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume