Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CAG)/.60
• (STZ)/3.37
• (LW)/1.08
  

After the Close: 

• (LEVI)/.27

Economic Releases  

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Sept.
  

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for Aug. is estimated to shrink to -$59.8B versus -$65.0B in July.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 210K versus 204K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1671K versus 1670K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, Eurozone trade data report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (DELL) analyst meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -6.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.1 -1.0
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 55.6% of Issues Advancing, 41.6% Declining
• 6 New 52-Week Highs, 210 New Lows
• 31.5%(-1.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 24.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.1 +.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,949.1 +1.16%
  
• 1-Day Vix 13.5 -19.2%
  
• Vix 18.9 -4.5%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.15 +1.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.23 +14.0%
  

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Ray Dalio Says US-China Relations Are on the ‘Brink of Red Lines'.
• Hong Kong Banks Struggle to Sell Foreclosed Homes Even at 20% Discount.
• Dollar, China Imperil Asia Stocks’ Stellar Fourth-Quarter Record.
• Yen Surges From Weakest Level in a Year Amid Intervention Talk.
• Asia Stocks Under Pressure as Wall Street Slides: Markets Wrap. 
• Oil Steadies Ahead of OPEC+ Review and US Stockpiles Update.
• McCarthy Ouster Means More Turmoil as Next Shutdown Fight Looms.
• Here Are the Republicans in the Mix to Replace Kevin McCarthy. 
• Short Fast Food Credit Because of Ozempic, Barclays Says.
• Ford Sweetens Wage Offer in Proposal to Striking UAW Workers.
• Credit Markets Wobble as Fed Speak, Data Fan Rate-Hike Angst.
• Investors Find Little Reason to Buy Stocks as Rates Fears Spread.
• Panic Creeps Up as VIX Curves Invert for First Time Since March.

Zero Hedge:

• McCarthy Won't Seek Speaker Position In Re-Vote; Trump Nominated By Nehls
• "We're In The Middle Of A Revolution" - Victor Davis Hanson Warns Tucker: "The Next 12 Months Will Be The Most Explosive In History"
• Goldman Finally Admits The US Fiscal Horror, Warns Of Explosive Increase In Government Interest Costs
• IRS Hits MyPillow With Five Audits: Mike Lindell.
• Trump Campaign Asks RNC To Cancel All Future Debates.
• Mexico President Blasts US Billions To Ukraine As "Irrational" - Says Focus On Latin America.
• NY Judge Issues Gag Order After Trump Targets Clerk.
• Fatal NYC Stabbing Of Social-Justice Activist Caught On CCTV.
• Bankman-Fried Shows Up For Jury Selection Leaner And With A Haircut.
• Copper's Price Curve Hasn't Looked Like This In Decades.
• US stocks and bonds were sold after a spike in job openings - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Ford, GM Layoff Another 500 Workers As Strikes Ripple Across Heartland. 
• The Geopolitical Forces Driving Today's Oil Market.
• India Orders 41 Canadian Diplomats Expelled In Latest Escalation.
• The 5 Stages Of America.
• WTI Holds Gains After API Reports Surprise Crude Draw, Cushing Build.
• Stocks and bonds tumble after surge in job openings precedes suspected Yen intervention - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Goldman, JPMorgan Pull The Alarm: As Yields Soar "Risks Are Growing Of A Sharp, Impulsive, Negative Feedback Loop... There Will Be A Financial Accident".
• Please Stop Telling Us Everything Is Fine With The Economy; It Is Not.
• Juicy Jobs Data Slams Stocks, Sparks Bond Bloodbath & VIXplosion.
  

Wall Street Journal:

• Amazon Used Secret Algorithm to Raise Prices.
• Patrick McHenry of North Carolina Is Speaker Pro Tem.
• Republican leader falls after removal effort by party dissidents.
• Dow’s 2023 Gains Wiped Out as Bond Yields Rise.
• Ecuador Was a Retirement Paradise for Americans. Then the Drug Gangs Arrived.
• Tougher Return-to-Office Rules Aren’t Filling Buildings.
• Netflix Plans to Raise Prices After Actors Strike Ends.
• Americans’ Growing Reluctance to Quit Jobs.
• Wall Street Thinks America’s Homes Are Overvalued.

CNBC.com:

• Popular 30-year mortgage rate races toward 8% after hitting a high not seen since late 2000.
• Bond yields could race through 5% in next couple of weeks, Jim Bianco warns.
• Novavax updated Covid vaccine wins FDA, CDC backing, paving way to reach Americans within days.
• Bill Gross says the 10-year Treasury yield could test 5% in the short term.
• United Airlines buys 110 additional Boeing, Airbus jets with delivery slots scarce.
• Something is breaking in financial markets — Here’s what’s behind the sell-off.

MarketWatch.com:

• How Treasury market upheaval is rippling through global markets, in 4 charts.
• Banks are bracing for a recession as Treasury yields surge.
• U.S. dollar hits strongest level in nearly a year, heaping more pressure on stocks.
• Intel to spin off programmable solutions business in IPO over next few years.
• ‘Just like in 1987.’ Here’s what could deliver a ‘devastating blow’ to stocks, says SocGen strategist Albert Edwards.
• Supreme Court case on CFPB funding could have wider ramifications for mortgage borrowers.
  

Newsmax:

• Rep Luna: I'll Only Support Speaker Who Backs Biden Impeachment.
• McCarthy Out as Speaker, Won't Make an Attempt to Win Back the House Post.
• With McCarthy Out as Speaker. Here's What's Next.

Fox News:

• Aaron Rodgers gives Travis Kelce a new nickname after tight end teams up with Pfizer
• ‘Shell-shocked’ McCarthy confirms he will not run for speaker after ouster
• Tennis legend slams Biden admin's video with drag queen: 'Is this a joke?'

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• “I Think This Represents the Ripping Off of the Bandaid – To Get Back on Track” – Rep. Matt Gaetz Delivers Remarks Following Kevin McCarthy’s Removal as House Speaker (VIDEO).
• Lesbian Marxist Laphonza Butler of Maryland Sworn in to Replace Feinstein as California’s Newest Senator (VIDEO).
• BREAKING UPDATE: Kevin McCarthy REMOVED as Speaker of the House…. Here Are the Republicans Who Voted to Oust McCarthy
• BREAKING: Far-Left NY Judge Engoron Issues Gag Order in Trump Fraud Trial.
• UPDATE: Disturbing Video Released Showing the Tragic Fatal Stabbing of Leftist Activist Ryan Carson on NYC Street, Girlfriend Witnessed the Horror.
• Karine Jean-Pierre Blames Republicans After Democrat Congressman Carjacked in Democrat-Run DC (VIDEO).
• General Mike Flynn Warns 2024 May Be the Last Election We Have As a Republic.
• Tucker Carlson’s Story About the Russian Revolution Is Terrifying – Are We Living in a Similar Time?
• Democrat Rep. Henry Cuellar, Victim of Recent Carjacking, Previously Voted for Measures to Make it Easier to Defund Police – He Also Supported the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act.
• Pentagon Official Exposed: Department of Defense Deputy Chief Arrested for Running Dogfighting Ring for Over 20 Years.
• Here We Go: Marc Elias and National Democrats Sue Wisconsin to Block Absentee Voter Witness Requirements – Anything to Steal an Election!

The Epoch Times:

• Communist China's Orwellian 'Global Community With a Shared Future'.
• US Treasury Issues Sanctions Targeting China-Backed Fentanyl Entities, Individuals.
• CCP Threat in the Digital Space.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 986,103 Reports(+2,130 from prior week) Through September 15th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.0 +2.25 basis points

• China Sovereign CDS 87.75 +3.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 115.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.96%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 -.03%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 71.5 -.01%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.08 -4.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.7 -.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Substantially Lower into Final Hour on Diminishing US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Surging Long-Term Rates, Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.9 +13.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.24% +42.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.6 -2.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 165.96 -.63%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.67 +.93%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 28.9 +7.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 86.0 -8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.08 -.92%

• NYSE Arms .76 -29.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.6 +4.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 350.77 +4.0%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 349 +4
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.09 +3.1% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 319.90 +2.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 197.0 basis points +9.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.36 +1.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 242.2 +4.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.75 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.75 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 16.5 basis points -4.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.5 +4.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 182.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 915.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 81.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.3 -.5%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.48% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 115.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.92%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.9 euros/megawatt-hour -6.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.0 -1.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -50.6 -.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.7 +.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +1.4% -.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.67 +.17:  Growth Rate +9.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 17.6 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% +2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 264.45 +.14: Growth Rate +59.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 27.8 -.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.03 -15.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.12 -6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -34.75 basis points (2s/10s) +8.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.87% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.73% unch.: CPI YoY +3.69% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 53.6%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 53.6%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -498 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -112 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +126 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/industrial/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -2.7% 2) Homebuilding -2.7% 3) Software -2.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• OCSL, CWEN/A, BUR, FSK, PARA, PAGP, AY, AWK, BEPC, TREX, SPHR, CSWC, AKR, ENPH, TCOM, ROIV, CVBF, BHVN, GME, VLO, ASAN, OMF, ALGM, SNDX, NVO, AES, ABNB, ARR, SNDX, SMCI, RUN, BALY, LPG, MRUS, NXT, GRPN, NEP,. W, ELF, HASI, MKC, ARRY and ENVX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ASHR 2) ARKG 3) SABR 4) ZION 5) ANF
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SDC 2) EHAB 3) WE 4) APLD 5) MKC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.0% 2) Road & Rail +.5% 3) Oil Service unch.

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PNT, KYMR, MORF, LNTH and WRBY
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) URTY 2) CAG 3) COMM 4) CNK 5) SDC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SCU 2) SYNA 3) OMH 4) SLE 5) JCSE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume