Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CHKP)/2.02
• (JKS)/10.51
• (MCD)/3.00
• (ON)/1.34
• (WDC)/-1.91
• (XPO)/.64
  

After the Close: 

• (ANET)/1.58
• (BCC)/3.42
• (CHGG)/.17
• (CWK)/.21
• (FWRD)/1.12
• (LSCC)/.52
• (PSMT)/.85
• (PSA)/4.19
• (QGEN)/.48
• (SPG)/2.97
• (THC)/1.20
• (RIG)/-.24
• (TREX)/.50
• (VFC)/.65
• (AMG)/3.74
• (SANM)/1.45
  

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for Oct. is estimated to rise to -16.1 versus -18.1 in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 3/6 Month T-Bill auctions and the Gabelli Funds Auto Symposium could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.6 -.8
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 40.4% of Issues Advancing, 56.5% Declining
• 16 New 52-Week Highs, 201 New Lows
• 25.5%(-1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 31.0 -5.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.3 -.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,860.4 +1.3%
  
• 1-Day Vix 15.5 -17.0%
  
• Vix 20.9 -2.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .93 -17.7%
• TRIN/Arms 1.34 +59.5%
  

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 138.75 +2.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 84.25 +.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 116.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.77%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.22 +.01%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.3 +2.60%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.30 +1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.2 -1.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.07%.

• S&P 500 futures +.41%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.61%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Mid-East Regional War Fears, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tightening US Financial Conditions, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.6 +2.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .92% +9.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 64.4 -.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 169.4 +.06%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.44 +.48%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 32.3 +1.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 +15.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.05 -12.5%

• NYSE Arms .87 +22.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.4 +.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 3711.53 +1.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 342 +13
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.09 +2.4% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 297.60 unch.
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 201.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 138.6 +3.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 238.8 +.03%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 144.17 +1.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 19.25 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.5 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 188.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 932.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 93.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 +.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.45% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.21%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.81 euros/megawatt-hour +1.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.2 +8.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -42.6 -1.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.4 +3.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(209 of 500 reporting) +11.1% +2.6 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.09 -.17:  Growth Rate +9.2% -.1 percentage point, P/E 17.3 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.11% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(4 of 10 reporting) +22.8% +43.7 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.39 +.24: Growth Rate +58.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 27.4 -.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.25 -8.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.04 +5.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -16.5 basis points (2s/10s) +9.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.41% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.32% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 72.9%(+3.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 67.1%(+6.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +94 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +33 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +69 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my utility/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -3.6% 2) Computer Hardware -2.1% 3) Oil Service -1.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NVST, XRAY, LTH, VRE, AEM, META, MSTR, SHOP, TRU, INVH, TSCO, SAVE, MAA, ZLAB, UPS, PRG, MA, PINS, VMC, CHX, BMY, HZO, WCN, EH, WEX, MAT, IGT, HOG, MO, CMCSA, ANET, TAK, TTD, OII, WST, ALSN, WU, WDC, STVN, CLS, HAS, RTO, PRTA, WHR, XPRO, MXL and ALGN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) VNQ 2) HAS 3) ALGN 4) ALK 5) VNET
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ALGN 2) HAS 3) WHR 4) CLS 5) HOG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Regional Banks +2.8% 2) Computer Services +2.8% 3) Steel +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BPMC, EDR, PI, ITGR, SRRK, FCN, SAH, FLEX, OLMA, AMT, MAS, LII, ORLY, TROX, PEGA, EXEL, NOW, IBM, UCTT, FAF, CNMD, VC, NTRS and LEA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EDR 2) GT 3) XP 4) ETRN 5) MAT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BPMC 2) WTW 3) SAH 4) FLEX 5) FCFS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume