Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Oct. is estimated to fall -2.9% versus a +2.8% gain in Sept.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UBS TMT Conference, Jefferies Cyber Security Summit, Raymond James TMT Consumer Conference, (SLG) investor meeting and the (AFRM) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +15.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.0 unch.
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 82.9% of Issues Advancing, 15.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .95 +46.2% 
• Non-Block Money Flow +$204.8M
  
• 134 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 50.0%(+6.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 74.0 +5.0

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.2 -3.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,325.6 -.77%
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.8 -14.1%
  
• Vix 12.7 -2.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .83 -6.7%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.75 +.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 59.5 +2.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 130.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.32%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.7 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 63.9 +2.8%.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .52 +6.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 13.8 +.31%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.18%.

• S&P 500 futures -.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Close at Session Highs on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Healthcare/Road & Rail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.0 -.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .52% +76.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 62.3 +1.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 172.8 -.05%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.8 +1.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.7 +1.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 -38.0
  

• Total Put/Call .87 +10.1%

• NYSE Arms .80 -27.9% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$153.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.88 -.25%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 335.04 -.81%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 330 +3.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.18 +1.1% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 238.21 -1.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 178.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.79 +.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 188.19 +.94%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 115.11 +.38%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.4 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -18.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 24.0 basis points -1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 153.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 946.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 91.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.7 -.33%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 129.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.29%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.1 euros/megawatt-hour +1.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.8 +1.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -30.6 -16.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.0 +1.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(490 of 500 reporting) +4.5% +.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 242.01 +.08:  Growth Rate +9.3% unch., P/E 18.8 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.13% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +50.6% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 284.0 +.14: Growth Rate +33.2% -.2 percentage point, P/E 28.9 -.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .52 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .18 -6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -36.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +1.77% -33.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 57.2% -.8 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.46% -9.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.04% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st FOMC meeting: 87.9%(-5.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 20th meeting: 51.1%(+3.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +38 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -2 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +67 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/utility/transport sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -2.3% 2) Semis -1.0% 3) Video Gaming -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SSL, FRO, CPNG, CRDO, GME, CBRL, AAOI, ARVN, PSTG and ARWR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) UMC 2) IMGN 3) PSTG 4) NTNX 5) NAT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CBRL 2) MOV 3) FSR 4) PSTG 5) EXPR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.6%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +1.7% 2) Healthcare Providers +1.7% 3) Biotech +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• IMGN, SWTX, VSCO, CABA, BMEA, LZB, EVER, CRM, XENE, PVH, SNOW, NVRO, SNAP, ERJ, OLMA, PSX, XMTR, IMCR, RILY, MRUS, WWD, TAL, GFL, CYTK, SBLK, EDU, NTNX, ARGX and UBS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PSTG 2) IMGN 3) MOR 4) LVS 5) OKTA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) IMGN 2) REX 3) CRM 4) SNOW 5) ZUO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume