Sunday, February 18, 2024

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:

CNBC:

NewsMax:

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

Epoch Times:

X:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Saturday, February 17, 2024

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (LHX) and (DBRG).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

Epoch Times:

X:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Friday, February 16, 2024

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, China Stimulus Hopes, Technical Buying, Commodity/Pharma Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.0 +.1%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .52 -24.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 73.3 +1.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 175.0 +.24%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.7 -.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.3 +.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 124.0 -18.0
  • Total Put/Call .96 +6.7%
  • NYSE Arms .90 -15.1% 
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$123.2M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.7 +.04%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 303.88 -.53%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 294 -12
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.3 -1.5% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 211.3 -.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 148.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.9 -1.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 176.14 unch.
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 115.4 +.8%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 -.12%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.5 basis points -1.75 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.5 basis points +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 +.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 159.0 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 833.0 -9.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 66.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.4 -.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 130.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 24.8 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.4 -5.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 34.7 +.1
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.1 +.3 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(396 of 500 reporting) +5.0% +.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 245.81 -.03:  Growth Rate +11.0% -.1 percentage point, P/E 20.5 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.20% -3.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +44.2% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 306.94 +.20: Growth Rate +43.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.08 unch.
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .89 +4.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -36.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.9% -.5 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 54.3% -1.9 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.06% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 66.2%(+4.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 52.2%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +73 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +142 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +63 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/industrial/transport sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AWI)/1.04
  • (CHH)/1.35
  • (FLR)/.57
  • (HD)/2.77
  • (LGIH)/2.54
  • (MDT)/1.26
  • (TPH)/1.18
  • (VC)/2.09
  • (WMT)/1.64
After the Close: 
  • (ANDE)/.99
  • (CZR)/-.04
  • (CHK)/.71
  • (CYH)/.05
  • (CWK)/.40
  • (FANG)/4.70
  • (FLS)/.60
  • (LZB)/.72
  • (PANW)/1.30
  • (PAAS)/.09
  • (PSA)/4.14
  • (RNG)/.82
  • (SEDG)/-1.34
  • (TDOC)/-.22
  • (TOL)/1.78
  • (BCC)/2.58
  • (CAMT)/.53
  • (DDS)/12.34
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for Feb.

10:00 am EST

  • The Leading Index for Jan. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.1% decline in Dec.  

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Citi Industrial Tech/Mobility Conference, Consumer Analyst Group of NY Conference, (HXL) investor day and the BofA Financial Conference could also impact global on Tuesday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.2 -2.1
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 41.9% of Issues Advancing, 55.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .91 -14.2%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$104.8M
  • 169 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
  • 62.1% (-1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 67.0 +3.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 73.5 +2.1%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 139.3 -.09%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,351.5 -.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 77.0 (Extreme Greed) +4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 10.5 -19.0%
  • Vix 13.9 -.7%
  • Total Put/Call .95 +5.6%

Thursday, February 15, 2024

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.75 -.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 64.5 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 129.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.04%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.3 -.11%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.7 +1.0%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.1 +.21%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.36%
  • S&P 500 futures -.09%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.