Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Diminishing Fed Rate Cut Hopes, Technical Selling, Utility/Gambling Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.8 +.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .32 -32.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 72.1 -.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 176.9 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.3 -1.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.2 -1.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 158.0 +2.0
  

• Total Put/Call .94 -1.0%

• NYSE Arms .72 -39.5% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$115.6M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.2 +1.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 295.69 +.29%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 265 +11
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.98 +1.11% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 206.7 +.18%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 145.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.5 +.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 167.35 +.48%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 118.6 -.44%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 -.04%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -14.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 10.5 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 159.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 825.0 -11.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 66.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.2 -.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.41% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.1 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 24.0 euros/megawatt-hour +4.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.2 -1.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 44.7 +2.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.8 -1.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(453 of 500 reporting) +7.1% +.3 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 247.28 +.20:  Growth Rate +10.9% -1.0 percentage point, P/E 20.6 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +57.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 314.18 +1.03: Growth Rate +47.3% +.5 percentage point, P/E 31.9 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.14 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .94 +3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -44.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.9% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 52.2% +1.6 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.11% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 83.9%(+7.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 51.4%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +182 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -23 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +52 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -2.1% 2) Gold & Silver -2.0% 3) Regional Banks -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SQ, PODD, TMDX, DOCN, GOOG, TFX, MGPI and SGRY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MTUM 2) WDAY 3) DOCN 4) FND 5) KDP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LUNR 2) FFIE 3) NOVA 4) FDP 5) BNTX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Digital Health +2.3% 2) Disk Drives +2.1% 3) Cyber Security +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• KRYS, ROOT, MARA, RCM, ALT, SKYT, RIOT, CLSK, ITRI, CLDX, WEAV, FRPT, SNBR, LI, SKYT, MSTR, HCP, AMR, ELF, METC, VRT, ARM, FYBR, LMND, PANW, ALVO, PPC, VICR, RIVN, DFH, HOOD, DPZ, FLNC, NU, MU, MNDY, IOVA, ACMR, DELL, PBPB, ALXO and EVER
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DPZ 2) FIS 3) RBA 4) CPRT 5) GT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KRYS 2) AGTI 3) RCM 4) ALT 5) FRPT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AEP)/1.26
• (AMT)/2.23
• (AZO)/26.3
• (CRI)/2.61
• (CBRL)/1.36
• (FSS)/.66
• (SJM)/2.27
• (JLL)/3.71
• (M)/1.98
• (NCLH)/-.12
• (PRGO)/.83
• (SEE)/.64

After the Close: 

• (A)/1.22
• (AMBA)/-.33
• (BYND)/-.89
• (SAM)/-.29
• (CAVA)/.00
• (EBAY)/1.03
• (FSLR)/3.14
• (MYGN)/.01
• (PAAS)/-.07
• (RDFN)/-.21
• (SPLK)/1.98
• (URBN)/.73
• (LOW)/1.68

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for Jan. is estimated to fall -5.0% versus unch. in Dec.
• Durables Ex Transports for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.5% gain in Dec.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Dec.
  

9:00 am EST

• The 4Q House Price Purchase Index QoQ.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.15% gain in Nov.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to -9.0 versus -15.0 in Jan.
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 115.0 versus 114.8 in Jan.
• The Richmond Fed Business Conditions Index for Feb.
• Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q update, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, KBW Fintech Payments Conference, BofA Ag/Materials Conference, BMO Metals/MIning/Critical Minerals Conference, UBS Financial Services Conference, (CSCO) business update call, (WHR) investor day and the Bernstein Tech/Media/Telecom Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.1 -.5
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 40.0% of Issues Advancing, 57.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .76 -36.1%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$58.0M
  
• 156 New 52-Week Highs, 30 New Lows
• 59.7% (-.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 67.0 -2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.6 +.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 139.8 +.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,417.8 +.32%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 77.0 (Extreme Greed) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 9.0 -12.9%
  
• Vix 13.8 +.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .89 -63%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China’s Quant Clampdown Risks Damaging Fragile Markets for Years.
• China’s Weak Local Borrowing Raises Hope for More Central Aid.
• Bolsonaro Rallies Supporters in Brazil Amid Police Probes.
• Stocks in Asia Trade Mixed After US Rally Stalls.
• Oil Holds Decline After Prices Retreat Below Key Moving Average.
• Yen Volatility Set to Fall as Dueling Forces Curb Trading Range.
• US Shutdown Risk Remains With Spending Deal Elusive, Schumer Says.
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week.

Zero Hedge:

• A Blue State Exodus: Who Can Afford To Be A Liberal.
• Koch Brothers Pull Out Of Haley After South Carolina Skewering.
• Illinois Bill Wants Make It "Child Abuse" For Parents To Object To Gender-Transitioning Of Kids.
• With The S&P At Record Highs, Hedge Funds Are Again Dumping Stocks, Shorting Tech At A Furious Pace: Goldman Prime.
• 5 Takeaways From The South Carolina Republican Primary.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Fani Scrambles: Fulton DA Demands Judge Reject Cellphone Evidence.
• What Is A Christian Nationalist?
• Trump Easily Defeats Haley In Her Home State Of South Carolina.
• The Game Of "Chicken" In Today's World.
• Yale Reinstituting Standardized Tests For Admission.
• Why Central Bank Digital Currencies Are Unnecessary And Dangerous.
• From CIA To 'Trust & Safety': The Silicon Valley-US Intel Revolving Door Is Bigger Than You Thought.
• Media TDS Kicks Into High Gear; Costas Says Trump Supporters In 'Toxic Cult'.
• Ukraine's New Defense Chief & The Untold Half Of The Zaluzhny Story.
• Are You Ready For Neo-Collectivism?
• Leaked Documents Expose China’s Hacking Capabilities, Targets.
• The Shot That Will Be Heard Round The Halls Of Congress.
• The last of us.
• Pharmacies Across The US Report Outages After Cyberattack.

Wall Street Journal:

• Trump Tightens Hold on GOP, Crowding Out Even Popular Rivals.
• Israel’s Netanyahu Won’t Agree to Hostage Deal Until Hamas Backs Down on Demands.
• How a Shifting AI Chip Market Will Shape Nvidia’s Future.
• Mexico’s ‘Hugs, Not Bullets’ Crime Policy Spreads Grief, Murder and Extortion.
• When High-Yield Savings Accounts Come With an Asterisk.
• EV Startups Struggled to Build Cars. Now They Struggle to Sell Them.

CNBC:

• Smartphone giants like Samsung are going to talk up ‘AI phones’ this year — here’s what that means.
• Billionaire-backed Koch network halts Nikki Haley campaign funding after South Carolina loss.

Reuters:

• AT&T to credit customers a full day of service for Thursday outage.

MarketWatch.com:

• Should stock-market investors stop worrying about the Fed and just keep loving AI?
• Alcoa offers $2.2 billion in takeover bid for Australia’s Alumina.
• Clothing and electronics retailers report earnings this week, offering insight on consumer spending.

NewsMax:

• Victorious Trump: Never Seen Republicans So Unified.
• Gizzi: Super Tuesday Looks Bleak for Nikki Haley.

Fox News:

• First lady became ‘full-fledged’ Biden after husband Joe's second aneurysm, book says.
• Conservative-friendly comedian takes a dig at 'SNL' in opening monologue.
• Wife of suspect in Georgia student murder speaks out after ICE confirms illegal status, prior NYC arrest.
• One of our nation’s greatest freedoms falls by the wayside as American beliefs targeted.
• Major investor will ‘immediately discontinue’ working in NYC over Trump verdict.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• “It Doesn’t Make Sense!” – CNN Panel Has Epic Meltdown After Trump Gets Double the Number of Votes Ever Received in South Carolina (VIDEO).
• Robert Hur Couldn’t Determine Who Had Access to Biden’s Stolen Classified Docs Because Security at Penn Biden Center DELETED All Visitor Logs From 2017-2021.
• Disney’s New X-Men ‘97 Cartoon Will Feature ‘Non-Binary’ Character.
• Surprise! Court Makes ‘Commonsense’ Ruling on Woke Critical Race Theory.
• Study Finds Almost Half of College Graduates are Working High School Level Jobs.
• BRAZIL AWAKENS: Hundreds of Thousands Congregate in São Paulo’s Streets To Join Bolsonaro in Largest Protest Since Elections (VIDEOS).
• Transgender Killer Sentenced to 22 Years on ‘Manslaughter’ Charge for Brutal Stabbing of Portland Cab Driver.
• Privacy Experts: ‘We Should be Worried’ About Coming Spy Threat.
• West Virginia Lawmakers Seek to Remove ‘Suicide Risk’ Exemption from Ban on Transgender Hormones for Minors.
• ‘Skyrocketing’: Number of Attacks on Christians and Churches Explodes.
• First it Was Plastic Straws, Now Lib State Moves to Ban ‘Single-Use’ Cups From Chain Restaurants.
• “Blueprint” Reveals How Radicals are Infiltrating Government to Push Abortion, Transgender Agenda.
• Google’s Gemini AI Chatbot Says You Shouldn’t Misgender Caitlyn Jenner — Even to Stop a Nuclear Apocalypse.
• Medicine Now Diagnoses the Non-White ‘Oppressed’ With an Oppressive Case of ‘Weathering.
• Graham Met with Chorus of Boos at Trump Victory Speech in South Carolina (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times: 

• China’s Central Bank Slashes Key Loan Interest Rate to Boost Property Market, Chinese Public Skeptical.

X:

• @elonmusk 

• Given that the Gemini AI will be at the heart of every Google product and YouTube, this is extremely alarming! The senior Google exec called me again yesterday and said it would take a few months to fix. Previously, he thought it would be faster. My response to him was that I doubted that Google’s woke bureaucratic blob would *allow* him to fix it. Unless those who caused this are exited from Google, nothing will change, except to make the bias less obvious and more pernicious. (pic)

• @KelliKayK

• Armed FBI agents storm into Chris Kuehne’s home for being at J6. Kuehne is a decorated war veteran. He helped Capitol police clean up trash. He did nothing wrong, yet here they are treating him like a terrorist. Meanwhile illegals are MURDERING Americans. (video) 

• @MarioNawfal 

• ILLEGAL MIGRANTS SERVED $31 MEALS IN MASSCHUISTTES HOTELS. "Records obtained show the state has 17 contracts for housing totaling more than $116 million. Hotels are collecting money from the state for three meals a day. $16 for breakfast, $17 for lunch, and $31 for dinner." (video)

• @TonyClimate

• China's CO2 emissions are skyrocketing and are about the same as North America and Europe combined #ClimateScam. (graph)
• Arctic sea ice extent has increased 5% over the past six years. This is not consistent with claims of disappearing ice or record heat. #ClimateScam.

• @TheRustler83

• 70% of NHS Staff are ‘Anti-Vaxxers’. Latest report from UK Health Security Agency confirms that 70% of Frontline health care workers REFUSED the COVID-19 Booster-vaccine in 2023/24. (graph)

• @TuckerCarlson

• What's Barack Obama up to these days? Working to make people hate each other, as usual. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• Joe Biden’s John Podesta WikiLeaks Problem Explained. John Podesta Was Hillary Clinton’s Campaign Manager, Before That Worked For Barack Obama’s White House & Was Joe Biden’s Senior Advisor. John Podesta Was Caught Emailing A Billionaire For “A Slice Of Pizza”. Code For Child Trafficking For Sex Is What Many Believe. Later It Was Found WikiLeaks Reveals John Podesta Pockets $7,000 a Month from Major Clinton Donor, The Same Billionaire. (video)
• SCARY: UK Gov Being Accused Of Seizing Homes Supposedly For Illegal Migrants. “In the UK, the government can offer to buy your property & if you decline they can just purchase it anyway & kick you out. & they have certain areas like certain towns that are for migrants only.” (video)
• What’s Happening In America? Texas Woman Has Her 2 Year Old Child Taken Away For Being Hesitant About The Medication Doctors Were Recommending. (video)
  

• @shellenberger

• The media say there's no evidence President Biden was involved in his son's business, but there is. And now, a new whistleblower has come forward revealing that, at the heart of Biden family influence peddling was an effort by China to control U.S. oil and gas resources.

• @SaltyGoat17

• They are having to put ballots in a bin in South Carolina due to machines not working because... Wait for it.... THE INTERNET IS DOWN!!! How many times have we been told that the machines can't connect to the internet?!? (video)

• @VigilantFox

• TUCKER CARLSON: “How can world governments kill more than 10 million people and leave some large undetermined number disabled for life? And not say a word about it. Not apologize. Not work to fix it. Not work to make the families whole. I mean, just leave it by the side of the road like a corpse and keep marching. I don’t understand that. How can that happen? STEVE KIRSCH: “Believe me, I’m surprised, as well. You know, I can’t get an audience with anybody in the United States Congress. Except for Senator Ron Johnson. Like, I can’t have a dialogue. They won’t talk to me. Nobody wants to know. They don’t want to know the truth. 
• Steve Kirsch Tags the COVID Jab as the ‘Most Dangerous Vaccine of All Time’. The VAERS system has identified 770 safety signals related to the COVID-19 vaccine. “That is mind-blowing. That is not a three-alarm fire. That is a 770-alarm fire.” So, what did the CDC do? “They said nothing.” (video)
  

• @KobeissiLetter

• Over the last 4 years alone, total US debt is officially up $11 trillion and counting. At the current rate, we will see $40 trillion in US debt by 2026 and that assumes a "soft landing." Just imagine what would happen if we entered a recession. (graph)

• @WallStreetSilv

• Update On The Lahaina, Maui Fire Devastation Zone In Hawaii: "5 months after the fire" "Nothings been done". "People still have to pay their mortgages". But we can send hundreds of billions to Ukraine to line up the pockets of the military industrial complex?(video)
• This Iranian illegal migrant at the US border says he likes to see Trump become president even if it means he'd get deported. "If I was a governor here I would be afraid". "Because all of these people are military age". "Even myself, I'm of military age". "If an incident between US and China occur in Taiwan what will these people do?"

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• During the WW2 bombing blitz 40,000 UK Civilians died. Since the mRNA vaccine roll out the UK has had 100,000+ excess deaths. The UK Government has given more ‘air-time’ to a dead Russian Political figure known to lead Nazi rallies than these 100,000 deaths. Read that again. (video)

• @CollinRugg

• NEW: President of Argentina Javier Milei will be introducing a bill to Congress to jail any Central Bank official who orders the Central Bank to print money to cover Argentina's deficits. Epic. (video) 
  

• @ChuckCallesto 

• BOMBSHELL REPORT: Judge who ruled Donald Trump defamed E Jean Carrol and ordered him to pay $83 MILLION in damages identified as THE SAME JUDGE who DISMISSED SEX-UAL ABUSE CHARGES OF A MINOR against Prince Andrew.. PAYING ATTENTION NOW.. (video)
  

• @stillgray

• The truth is no longer permitted by the woke. • Thomson Reuters' former director of data science Zac Kriegman claimed he was fired after sharing his research on race and police killings with colleagues

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,003,176 Reports(+2,451 from prior report) Through January 26th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.5 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 63.5 +2.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 118.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.1 -.24%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.5 +.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.5 +.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.27%.
• S&P 500 futures -.23%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.32%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.