Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.6 +.6
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 52.4% of Issues Advancing, 44.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.2 +82.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$168.9M
  
• 135 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 59.9% (-1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 unch.
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.2 -1.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 140.6 +.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,262.7 -.58%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 79.0 (Extreme Greed) +3.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.0 +3.2%
  
• Vix 13.6 +1.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .76 -20.8%

Wednesday Watch

X:

• @elonmusk 

• And this is from Bloomberg! Venezuela getting safer as criminals, single men and gangs flee to other countries. 

• @KanekoaTheGreat 

• This is the Professor Emeritus in Epidemiology at Yale School of Public Health and Medicine, saying COVID-19 is a bioweapon. It's being covered up to protect the U.S. bioweapons industry. (video)

• @UngaTheGreat 

• Bret Weinstein: Every Public Truth-Seeking Institution Is Under Simultaneous Assault. Dr. Bret Weinstein’s message is a wake-up call. “In every single institution dedicated to public truth-seeking, there is a state of collapse,” he asserts, highlighting a disturbing pattern of systemic attack on the very fabric of societal enlightenment. (video)

• @LivePDDave1 

• Meet Jeff DiSantis -- the Biden Administration's "plant" inside Fani Willis' office and who has been "pulling the strings" of the entire Trump prosecution, according to a bombshell new Breitbart report. Check out these explosive quotes from today's Breitbart investigation (full story linked below): 

• @TheChiefNerd  

• Lara Logan Calls Out How the U.S. Government Funds NGO's to Be Their Political Assassins. (video)

• @TuckerCarlson 

• So a CIA-backed Ukrainian intel official is now telling us that, actually, Navalny died of natural causes. You’ve got to wonder what’s going on here. It’s pretty obvious.

• @DC_Draino 

• “I could not in good conscience vote against impeachment b/c I believe President Trump is guilty of wrongdoing” -Tulsi Gabbard (video)

• @benshapiro 

• 1/ DEI in medicine means that even if doctors injure patients, they might still be protected (even promoted). It means that top hospitals are abandoning key metrics when hiring surgeons. And it means research by whites may be disregarded. Here’s what I've found…

• @drawandstrike 

• Are we allowed to ask if the CIA building 12 secret bases on the Ukraine border with Russia still means the Russian invasion was unprovoked? Our own government, the UN and NATO lied about:

• @Julio_Rosas11 

• A law enforcement source has confirmed to me the man who recently shot three DC police officers, Stephen Claude Rattigan, also known as James Claude Julius, is in the US illegally.

• @WallStreetApes 

• NEW: Man Is Early Voting In Tennessee Local Election & It’s Looking Rigged. He Was Asked If He Was Republican Or Democrat Those Walking In Saying Democrat Are Just Handed A Ballot After Identifying As A Republican He Needed Photo ID, Voter Registration Card, They Attempted To Deny Voting For Switching Apartments At The Same Address & He Was Hassled. Listen To This: 
• This Is An EXTREMELY IMPORTANT & Informative Speech About What’s Happening Globally & Our Future. The Goal Is To Make Everyone “Global Citizens”. (video)
• More Government Tyranny & Surveillance Headed To California. NEW Starting 2025, California Will Implement Merchant Category Codes On Purchases. This Will Allow Your Purchases To Be Reported To The Government “You're gonna be categorized as potentially being a an extremist”. (video) 
• Woke Is Being Snuck Into Very Popular Home School Books. Spectrum Curriculum Books Have Updated Their Content To Reflect They/ Them/ Theirs Pronouns As Singular & More. All Over America Parents Use These Books For Home School, Used In Classrooms & Parent Buy Them To Help Their Child Get Ahead.
  

• @BGatesIsaPsycho 

• “The Anti-Vaxxers Won”. “You won, you won completely - I did not end up in the right place”. “The right place would be natural immunity no vaccination”. “The thing they don’t have to worry about is the thing I have to worry about - what will happen in say 5 years”. (video)

• @JimFergusonUK 

• WEF Orders U.S. Electors To Not Certify Trump’s 2024 Election Win. The World Economic Forum has reportedly issued guidance to U.S. electors, suggesting they withhold certification of the presidential election results should Trump emerge victorious. An article released by a WEF-associated publication on Friday, titled “How Democrats Could Disqualify Trump If the Supreme Court Doesn’t,” proposes a strategy for Democrats to challenge the election outcome if it does not favor them. (video)

• @TonyClimate

• Arctic sea ice extent has been higher than 2005 every day this year. #ClimateScam. (graph)

• @houmanhemmati 

• IS CALIFORNIA DELIBERATELY CAUSING "CLIMATE CHANGE" OR AS THEY CALL IT "WEATHER MODIFICATION" USING CO2 & SILVER IN THE AIR IN THE NAME OF MORE RAIN? This is the cover sheet from the California Dept. of Water Resources report outlining the systematic plan to perform "precipitation enhancement" AKA "cloud seeding" or "weather modification" (which sounds awfully like "climate change" to me) in hopes of creating more rain.

• @USMortality

• The New Zealand data makes it clear: Unvaccinated people were never the driver of the pandemic! (graph)

• @WallStreetSilv

• See if you can spot the differences in security. (video)

• @myLetrinh123 

• In a stunning turn of events, the United Kingdom may emerge as the forefront in cracking down on criminal activities at the highest levels of government in relation to the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. (video)

• @songpinganq

• In China, if you can't pay back bank loan on time, not only you will get blacklisted by Social Credit System, but also you will get arrested twice a year, 15 days on time. The social credit system is so harsh that it is hurting China's economy. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,003,176 Reports(+2,451 from prior report) Through January 26th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.5 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 66.0 +1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 116.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.34%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.22 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.8 +.7%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.0 +.01%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Retail/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.6 -1.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .53 -6.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 73.2 +1.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 176.6 -.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.2 -2.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 15.7 -2.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 200.0 +60.0
  

• Total Put/Call .95 -2.1%

• NYSE Arms .65 -35.6% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$6.3M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.2 -.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 300.1 +.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 266 +1
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.1 +1.7% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 209.1 +1.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 144.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.3 +2.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 168.6 +.48%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 120.5 +1.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 -.3%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.5 basis points +3.5 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.5 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.5 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 158.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 828.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 66.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.2 +.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 24.4 euros/megawatt-hour +1.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.3 -3.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 47.1 +2.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.3 +2..5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(465 of 500 reporting) +7.4% +.3 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 247.52 +.22:  Growth Rate +11.0% +1.0 percentage point, P/E 20.5 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +57.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 314.74 +.56: Growth Rate +47.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 31.9 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.14 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .92 -2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -39.5 basis points (2s/10s) +4.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.3% +.4 percentage point
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 51.3% -.9 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.12% +1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 84.2%(-3.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 51.7%(-2.1 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +61 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +17 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +47 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my biotech/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AAP)/.21
• (BIDU)/17.55
• (DCI)/.74
• (EME)/3.55
• (ODP)/.74
• (PDCO)/.60
• (TJX)/1.12
• (VIPS)/5.03
• (WRBY)/.01
  

After the Close: 

• (AMC)/-.57
• (AI)/-.28
• (DUOL)/.04
• (FWRD)/.98
• (HPQ)/.81
• (JAZZ)/5.18
• (MYRG)/1.50
• (OKTA)/.51
• (CRM)/2.27
• (SNOW)/.18
• (SQM)/1.09
• (DLTR)/2.66
• (NTES)/12.19
• (WB)/.50
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• 4Q GDP revisions.
• Advance Goods Trade Balance for Jan. is estimated to widen to -$88.5B versus -$87.9B in Dec.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.8% gain in Dec.  
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +2,563,400 barrels versus a +3,514,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -2,347,000 barrels versus a -293,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,385,800 barrels versus a -4,008,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +1.2% versus unch. prior.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Collins speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (RYN) investor day, (AAPL) general meeting, (LPX) investor day, (DE) annual meeting, BofA Ag/Materials Conference, Susquehanna Tech Conference and the BMO Metals/Mining/Critical Minerals Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.0 -1.1
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 59.0% of Issues Advancing, 38.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .69 -31.7%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$59.4M
  
• 138 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
• 60.8% (+2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 -1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.8 +1.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 140.2 +.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,365.1 -.19%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 76.0 (Extreme Greed) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 8.4 -14.8%
  
• Vix 13.6 -1.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .97 unch.

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.75 +2.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.0 +1.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 115.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.1 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.2 +2.0%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.3 +.34%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.18%

• S&P 500 futures -.1%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.