Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +13.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.8 -.8
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 66.1% of Issues Advancing, 31.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.2 +20.6%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$128.0M
  
• 159 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
• 60.4% (+2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 -1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.8 -1.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 141.3 +.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,301.3 +.05%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 78.0 (Extreme Greed) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 9.6 -26.4%
  
• Vix 13.6 -2.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .96 +13.0%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• China Militia Presence Increases in South China Sea, Report Says.
• Asia Stocks Echo US Drop, Bitcoin Extends Rally.
• Oil Extends Decline as Build-Up in US Inventories Spurs Caution.
• AI Is Already Changing How the US Wages War.
• Fed Officials Emphasize Data to Guide Pace of Interest-Rate Cuts.
• AMC Theaters Cuts CEO’s Target Pay by 25% After a Dismal 2023.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia.

Zero Hedge:

• "I'm Ringing The Alarm Bell, Because Flood Of Illegals Is Crushing The Country!".
• Mitch McConnell - Longest Serving Senate Leader In US History - To Step Down From Position In November.
• Leftists Argue That Hijacking Planes Is A Legitimate Form Of Protest.
• Biden Admin Tax Policy Proposals Hurt US Competitiveness.
• Japan's Demographic Implosion: Live Births Crash To Record Low, 12 Years Ahead Of Forecast.
• Leaked Gaza Ceasefire Proposal Is US 'Psychological Warfare', Hamas Says.
• In Blow To Special Counsel Smith, SCOTUS Agrees To Hear Trump Immunity Appeal.
• A Moment Of Truth: Five Questions For Hunter Biden.
• Rural America Set To Be Transformed By Up To 55 Million-Acre Federal Solar Plan.
• 3rd Pipe Bomb Camera Deliberately Turned Away From DNC Headquarters On J6.
• US stocks were pressured and bond were underpinned ahead of PCE data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Vitalik: The Application Of Blockchain In Democracy, Consensus, & Government Governance.
• GOP Senators Sound Alarm Over CBDCs, Propose Bill To Ban Them.
• Stocks sold and bonds bought as eyes turn to PCE - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Google CEO Pledged To Use AI To Counter "Fake News", Racism, & Populism After Trump Victory.
• The State Of Commercial Real Estate, In Charts.
• Congressional Leaders Announce Deal To Avert Shutdown.
• Stocks Slip As Crypto Rips & Dips On Record ETF Volumes.

Wall Street Journal:

• Supreme Court to Decide on Trump Immunity Claim.
• The Fed Governor Who Proved Larry Summers Wrong.
• Musk Says Long-Delayed Tesla Roadster Coming Next Year.
• Detroit Warned Apple About Making a Car. It Had to Learn the Hard Way.
• U.S. Limits Sales of Americans’ Personal Data to China, Other Adversaries.

CNBC.com:

• Coinbase users see $0 balance after crypto-trading app suffers glitch.
• Water scarcity threatens chipmakers and could push prices higher: S&P.
• Google CEO tells employees Gemini AI blunder ‘unacceptable’.

Reuters:

• UnitedHealth hackers say they stole 'millions' of records, then delete statement.
• Electronic Arts to lay off 5% of workforce, reduce office space.

MarketWatch.com:   

• Okta’s profit push is paying off as earnings send the stock soaring.
• Jamie Dimon says New York officials ‘don’t want business’ but Texas does.
• Snowflake’s stock plunges after earnings, with CEO switch a ‘massive surprise’.
• Salesforce’s disappointing guidance overshadows earnings beat, stock slips 4%.
• C3.ai’s stock pops after earnings show growth accelerating.
• Keep cool when parsing PCE inflation reading: economist.
• Duolingo’s stock soars more than 20% after ‘record’ bookings, quarterly profit.
• 10 stocks you can bet on being inflation-proof.

Newsmax:

• McConnell Stepping Down as Senate GOP Leader.
• Ronna McDaniel Announces Resignation as RNC Chair.

Fox News: 

• President's son faces backlash for claiming his father was not involved in business deals.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Landmark Victory for Texas AG Ken Paxton as Court Strikes Down Biden’s $1.7 Trillion Spending Bill – Unconstitutional. 
• New York AG Letitia James Files Lawsuit Against Worlds Largest Beef Producer for ‘Misleading Public’ About its Impact on Climate.
• BREAKING: O’Keefe Media Group Confronts Total Creep New York Judge Arthur Engoron After Sources Tell Him Engoron Frequently Goes to Gym and is “Creeping Girls Out” – Engoron Wears Revealing Sweatpants and No Underwear? (VIDEO).
• Biden Cracks a Joke About His Age After Refusing to Mention Georgia College Student Killed By One of His Illegal Aliens (VIDEO).
• Biden Regime Announces to Partnership with “Voting Rights Groups” to Register Voters for 2024 Election – Plan includes Paying College Kids to Register Voters.
• Newsom Exempts Panera Bread From California’s New $20 Minimum Wage Law Because Its CEO Donates to His Political Campaigns.
• “You’re a Liar…You Have Blood on Your Hands!” – Athens, Georgia Residents Rip Apart Woke Mayor After He Lies About Role in Illegal Alien Murderer of Beloved College Student (VIDEO).
• Former GOP Congressman Peter King Calls On Republican Senate Nominee Mike Sapraicone to Step Down After It Is Revealed He Donated to Letitia James – GP’s CARA CASTRONUOVA IS NEXT IN LINE AND NEEDS YOUR HELP!
• U.S. Air Force Member Who Set Himself on Fire, Social Media Account Discovered, Was an Anarchist Who Advocated to Disarm the Military, Gossiped About Colonels, and Told Jesus to **** Off.
• Joe Biden’s America: Honduran Illegal Arrested For Raping 14-Year-Old Girl, Stabbing Man in the Face Multiple Times.
• “So That’s a Wow!” – CNN Reacts After Joe Biden Loses to “Uncommitted” in Dearborn Michigan Democrat Primary (VIDEO).
• The Health Care Cyber Attack That is Still Disrupting Operations May Be a Test Run for a Bigger Event (VIDEO).
• Lee Zeldin Drops a Truth Bomb on CNN Following Michigan Primary – Trump Beat ALL Democrats Combined (VIDEO).
• Michigan Presidential Primary: Trump CRUSHES Nikki Haley Again! – Trump 68% Haley and Her Democrat Voters 26%.

The Epoch Times:

• Why Chinese Consumers Feel so Blue.
• Global Markets Brace for Major Depreciation of Yuan Against Dollar.
• CCP Releases Chinese New Year Holiday Consumption Data; Experts Say China’s Economy Entering Depression.

NBC News:

• Trump allies have knives out for Sen. Thune as he embarks on re-election bid. (1/13/22) The No. 2 Republican in the Senate is a close ally of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and has clashed with Trump.

X:

• @libsoftiktok
  

• Sick! Democrats in Colorado shot down a bill that would’ve mandated harsher punishment for pedos who bought and sold children for s*x. Why would anyone want to protect pedos? (video)
• BREAKING: LGBTQ youth advocacy organization @TYEFofficial offers to secretly send 13-year-old a chest binder behind her parents’ backs. We posed as a teen girl and they encouraged her to choose another family, get a job to pay for s*x change surgery, and bashed her Trump supporter parents as “brainwashed.” This is grooming 101. Cut out the parents, isolate the child, and coax the kid into turning against their parents. 
• Kelly Girtz (D), the Mayor of Athens, Georgia, where Laken Riley was m*rdered by an illegal says illegal immigration and crime aren’t connected. He then blames Trump for being mean to illegals. (video)

• @JunkScience
  

• Biden's Inflation Reduction Act will wind up subsidizing Communist China's domination of us: "Chinese EV maker BYD is exploring opportunities to invest in plants in Mexico that would enable it to enter the US market by exploiting provisions in the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) that would allow it to avoid heavy US tariffs on imports of Chinese-made cars."

• @FinanceLancelot

• Steven A. Cohen's highest % ownership appears to be mostly in clinical stage cancer therapeutic companies & healthcare. (pic)

• @bennyjohnson

• Democrat activist reverend TURNS on Democrat Party, goes FULL-MAGA after reality of Democrat plan RED-PILLS him: (video)

• @WallStreetApes 

• US Attorney Joshua S. Levy Confirming A Commercial Sex Ring For The Ultra Wealthy. Clients Include US Elected Officials, Politicians, Accountants, Lawyers, Professors & Also “Executives at high-tech companies and pharmaceutical companies. They're military officers, government contractors, professors, scientists. Pick a profession. They're probably represented in this case.”

• @benshapiro

• Following our investigation, Duke Medical School has taken down videos in which one of its doctors, Vignesh Raman, admitted to "abandoning ... all sort[s] of metrics" in hiring surgeons for the sake of DEI. Unfortunately for Duke, we saved copies.

• @OvertonLive

• Fifth Suspect Arrested in Tragic Murder of 2-Year-Old Jeremy Poou Caceres, Identified as Illegal Alien. (video)

• @WallStreetSilv

• The Democrats are replacing their own voters. They are going all in on illegal aliens (fake refugees). They are getting to the front of the line now for government jobs. 100% sure they will also be receiving ballots in the mail and they will be counted. (video)
  

• @Cancelcloco

• The lawsuits against Diddy are stacking up. Spent the morning reading through the court documents. It’s looking like this is the Epstein of the rap industry. (video)
  

• @EndWokeness

• Thousands of unaccompanied minors who crossed the border are missing. These children were placed by the Biden Administration into sponsor homes. Now nobody knows where they are. Culpeper is a small town near D.C with a population of just 20k. 21 of them went missing just in that one tiny town. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,003,176 Reports(+2,451 from prior report) Through January 26th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.5 +1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 66.25 +.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 115.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.53%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.2 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.1 +.8%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.2 -.16%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on China Economy Worries, Sector Rotation, Technical Selling, Biotech/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.8 +2.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .51 -2.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 72.0 -1.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 176.7 +.04%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.3 +.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.2 +3.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 158.0 -7.0
  

• Total Put/Call .82 -14.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.19 +88.9% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$200.3M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.6 +1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 304.3 +1.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 279 +13
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.04 -.08% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 209.5 +.18%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 143.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.2 +.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 168.18 -.27%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 120.2 -.27%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 -.04%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 9.5 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.5 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 156.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 826.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 64.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.2 -.17%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 115.15 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 25.6 euros/megawatt-hour +5.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.8 -.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 35.2 -11.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.8 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(476 of 500 reporting) +7.7% +.3 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 246.97 -.55:  Growth Rate +10.8% -.2 percentage point, P/E 20.6 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +57.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 314.63 -.11: Growth Rate +47.5% -.1 percentage point, P/E 31.8 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .92 unch.
  
• US Yield Curve -38.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.3% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 52.4% +.9 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.12% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 80.7%(-3.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 52.8%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -145 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +43 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers -1.8% 2) Gold & Silver -1.6% 3) Biotech -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PWSC, FTDR, EDR, UNH, KVYO, PUBM, DV, RIOT, TMDX, DO, VTRS, HRZN, ATEC, JAMF, KTB, ACAD, SHC, IART, CLSK, JANX, URBN, CNXC, BMBL, WRBY, XNCR, RXRX, PGNY, AMR and LMND
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DV 2) BYND 3) AG 4) APLT 5) EBAY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LMND 2) WRBY 3) URBN 4) NVAX 5) UNH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.3%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) REITs +1.3% 2) Gambling +1.0% 3) Telecom +.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BAND, ACMR, BYND, EDIT, TGTX, RVLV, BGS, FLYW, AXON, COCO, GTLS, VIPS, MSTR, AGO, SKYT, BWXT, SRCL, PRKS, IMAX, ARWR, LTH, EME, FOUR, TREE, RYAN, CEG, EBAY, CPNG, PHAT, CRNX, AAP, ODP, ROOT, JXN, GOGL, ALC, XHR, JL, AVDX, DCI, FLNG, MARA, SUPN, ARRY, TWLO, CIVI, YETI, CRDO, OVV, FSLR, PWP, VST and DY
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EDIT 2) EBAY 3) BCS 4) FLYW 5) VIPS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ACMR 2) LFST 3) BYND 4) FLYW 5) COCO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BBY)/2.52
• (DOLE)/.07
• (FRO)/.51
• (GDRX)/.07
• (HRL)/.34
• (NTES)/12.40
• (PZZA)/.72
• (TD)/1.43
  

After the Close: 

• (AMWD)/1.28
• (ADSK)/1.95
• (COO)/.78
• (HPE)/.45
• (MTZ)/.45
• (NTAP)/1.69
• (ZS)/.58
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for Jan. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.
• Personal Spending for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.7% gain in Dec.
• The PCE Core Deflator MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Dec.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 210K versus 201K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1874K versus 1862K prior.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Feb. is estimated to rise to 48.0 versus 46.0 in Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.5% versus an +8.3% gain in Dec.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for Feb. is estimated to rise to -2 versus -9 in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Schmid speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q update, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Susquehanna Tech Conference, BofA Ag/Materials Conference, (PFE) investor day and the BofA Animal Health Virtual Summit could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST