Tuesday, March 05, 2024

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -2.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Software -3.7% 2) Electric Vehicles -2.9% 3) Cyber Security -2.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BL, HIMS, MKTX, XEL, ALKT, XMTR, TBBK, INTA, ACIC, ELF, COIN, HLNE, ZS, DELL, SNOW, TWLO, NARI, CRWD, CLSK, DUOL, MP, IOT, BBIO, POWL, ROOT, ACMR, TNDM, ALB, MSTR, SEMR and GTLB
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) GTLB 2) JETS 3) JWN 4) TGT 5) INDA
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ALB 2) AS 3) NOVA 4) JOAN 5) CART
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Regional Banks +4.3% 2) Banks +1.7% 3) Energy +1.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • APGE, AVAV, RGNX, TGT, PHUN, FMS, VIAV, SYRE, HOG, KRYS, CRGY, DVA, NFE, CHH, MGEE, NRG, HPE, IMNM, EGO, BHVN, TS, SAIA, VST, JANX, CCOI, AL and FA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ELAN 2) SOVO 3) AXP 4) TGT 5) OCEA
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AISP 2) DAVE 3) APGE 4) DTSS 5) AVAV

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ANF)/2.83
  • (BF/B)/.56
  • (CPB)/.77
  • (FL)/.32
  • (JD)/4.81
  • (KFY)/.99
  • (THO)/.67
  • (UNFI)/-.02
After the Close: 
  • (VSCO)/2.46
Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

  • The ADP Employment Change for Feb. is estimated to rise to 150K versus 107K in Jan.

10:00 am EST

  • The JOLTS Job Openings for Jan. is estimated to fall to 8850K versus 9026K in Dec.
  • Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.7% gain in Dec.

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,720,250 barrels versus a +4,199,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,059,750 barrels versus a -2,832,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -331,500 barrels versus a -510,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +1.0% versus a +.9% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

  • The Fed's Beige Book report.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Daly speaking, Fed's Powell speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, BofA Power/Utilities/Clean Energy Conference, Cowen Health Care Conference, KeyBanc Emerging Tech Summit, RBC Financial Institutions Conference, (TDG) annual meeting and the Morgan Stanley Tech/Media/Telecom Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +20.4% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.3 +3.2
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 51.9% of Issues Advancing, 46.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .99 +12.5%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$174.9M
  • 129 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
  • 60.3% (-.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 68.0 -2.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.4 -2.8%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.0 +.2%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,031.3 -1.5%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 75.0 (Extreme Greed) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 10.4 +22.3%
  • Vix 14.3 +5.6%
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 +23.5%

Monday, March 04, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.25 +2.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 65.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 115.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.04 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.9 +.8%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.1 +.33%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.14%
  • S&P 500 futures -.15%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.27%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Thursday, February 29, 2024

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.75 -.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 65.25 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 117.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.1 -.12%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 71.7 -.18%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.1 unch.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.39%
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.