Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.4 -1.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .41 -9.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.9 +.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 175.5 -.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.3 +.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.6 -7.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 139.0 -8.0
  

• Total Put/Call .90 -14.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.27 +18.7%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$304.5M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.0 -1.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 298.0 -1.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 287 +6
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.2 -2.0% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 196.2 -5.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.8 -.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.8 -.72%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 121.1 +.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.1%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.5 basis points unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 147.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 827.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 63.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.0 +.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 115.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.0 euros/megawatt-hour -2.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 24.9 -.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.1 -7.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.4 +.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(494 of 500 reporting) +7.9% +.7 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 247.60 +.07:  Growth Rate +11.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.82% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +57.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 315.75 +.12: Growth Rate +31.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.6 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.03 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .92 -3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -42.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.5% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 57.7% -1.1 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.72% unch.: CPI YoY +3.12% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 76.3%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 55.7%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +52 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +11 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +53 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/transport/biotech/consumer discetionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Networking -.5% 2) Airlines -.2% 3) REITs -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• VET, CWAN, SLNO, STVN, CRGY, ANF, CCOI, GPCR, PSFE, HPK, CIEN, HDSN, VKTX, VSCO, MEI and SWIN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) VSCO 2) EOSE 3) HPE 4) XEL 5) BURL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VSCO 2) CDMO 3) LUXH 4) BIVI 5) CMI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.3%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +3.7% 2) Digital Health +2.8% 3) Homebuilding +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OSPN, RTO, KRO, CC, ARHS, AGR, OPRA, TNDM, ASX, IONQ, CRGX, NVO, KR, PHUN, DV, BURL, BJ, PRGO, IMNM, TSM, ARCB, QCOM, SHAK, PHR, NVEI, SHAK, SILK, SA, MUR, MU, CMPS, PAAS, DLO, SKYT, PLTR and WCC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TRTX 2) FOXA 3) MNMD 4) SPHR 5) KR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OSPN 2) HNST 3) BYRN 4) BJ 5) BURL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AQN)/.14
• (CRMT)/-1.09
• (GCO)/2.97
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Feb. is estimated to fall to 200K versus 353K in Jan.
• The Unemployment Rate for Feb. is estimated at 3.7% versus 3.7% in Jan.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.6% gain in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking and the Alzheimer/Parkinson Diseases Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +13.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.7 -.2
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 70.9% of Issues Advancing, 26.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.38 +29.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$278.9M
  
• 253 New 52-Week Highs, 13 New Lows
• 61.6% (+2.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 72.0 +2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.8 +.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 142.8 +.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,219.6 +.8%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 75.0 (Extreme Greed) unch.
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.4 -.5%
  
• Vix 14.4 -.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .93 -11.4%

Thursday Watch

X:

• @elonmusk 

• In less than 10 years, the US Dem Party will be actively antisemitic as its mainstream view. Mark these words.

• @_aussie17

• Press Conference out of South Korea - COVID Vaccine Victims demands accountability! (video)

• @libsoftiktok
  

• This was posted to the official Kansas City, MO page. A bunch of elected officials including the Mayor (D) read a book to kids for 'National Reading Day.' The book is about a young kid who decides to be transgender and changes his name. The book encourages kids to explore gender stereotypes and gender identity. This is what elected leaders are pushing onto young kids. (video)
  

• @JunkScience

• @ExxonMobil CEO dumps on climate idiocy:

• @TheChiefNerd  

• “The study, published by emissions data firm Emission Analytics…found that brakes and tires on EVs release 1,850 times more particle pollution compared to modern tailpipes, which have ‘efficient’ exhaust filters, bringing gas-powered vehicles’ emissions to new lows.

• @kylenabecker

• Handy Guide to Determine When Photo IDs are Racist. (pic)

• @seanmdav
  

• The exit polls about Nikki Haley's voters' views on Biden and the economy are WILD. These results, which are from Virginia, show that 92 PERCENT of Haley's voters approve of Joe Biden's performance as president, and 87 PERCENT of Haley's voters say they're satisfied with how things are going in America right now. Haley's voters aren't just Democrats. They're the most rabid, left-wing, delusional, anti-Trump members of the Democrat party's already left-wing and delusional base.

• @KobeissiLetter 

• Home ownership costs have DOUBLED in 4 years according to Zillow: The typical mortgage payment is up 7.2% over the last year and a whopping 103% since pre-pandemic. (graph)

• @VigilantFox

• @ElonMusk Exposes the Democrats’ Secret Game Plan to Win Every Election. “No grand conspiracy is needed to explain this, just simple incentives.” The billionaire tech entrepreneur said: “It is obvious to anyone who is not a fool that this administration is deliberately importing vast numbers of illegals. “No grand conspiracy theory is needed to explain this, just simple incentives: they are far more likely to vote Democrat than Republican.

• @CollinRugg

• JUST IN: Violent crime is getting so bad in New York City subways that Gov. Kathy Hochul is deploying 1,000 total National Guardsmen, state police & MTA police to patrol them. Liberal policies have consequences. 750 members of the National Guard and 250 state troopers will now be checking bags at subway entrances. Just last month, an additional 1000 NYPD officers were ordered to patrol the subways. (video)

• @WallStreetApes 

• California Wants To Tax Your Constitutional Right To Own A Firearm. Bill Will Impose Annual Registration Fee On Your Firearm. If You Forget To Register, It’s A $1,00 Fine Own 10 Firearms, That’s $10,000. Can’t Pay It? They’ll Seize Your Firearms & Destroy Them.
• America Is Being Transformed Into The Land Of Renters. Corporations Buying Up All Our Homes & Skyrocketing Rent Prices “Starter Homes Are No Longer For Sale, Only Rent” “Georgia's housing crisis. — 19,000 homes, not apartments, homes in the metro, are owned by 3 companies. That's nearly 1 in every 9 houses up for rent and some entire suburban neighborhoods where corporations own it all.” “This is important because it drives up prices for everyone.” (video)
  

• DiedSuddenly

• Warning The annual flu vaccine will be transformed into an mRNA Vaccine. “New technology is working its way into old vaccine protections”. Completely ignoring the millions of injuries and deaths reported by the mRNA Covid Vaccine- the FDA is planning to push this through and approve it anyway. (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho 

• Pfizer attempted to suppress their own Clinical Information for 75 years regarding known side effects following Clinical Trials of the mRNA Vaccines. Feel different after your injection? Take a look through these 29 pages of side effects & see if perhaps this is the cause? (video)
  

• @ChuckCallesto
  

• BREAKING NOW: New York State now removing red tape to ALLOW ILLEGAL MIGRANTS the ability to obtain state jobs. READ THAT TWICE... (video)
  

• @Rasmussen_Poll

• Georgia 2020 Trust Deficit - Forensic audit blocked 100 drop boxes lack surveillance videos 20K ballot images - vanished 13 election routers - vanished 10 Dominion tabulators - vanished GA SOS 'napkin math' - 'yeah, 360K ineligible voters' But Biden 'won' state by 11,779 'votes'.

• @MJTruthUltra

• Everyone needs to understand what just happened to Vermont… Because it’s exactly what happened in 2020. The 2020 Election Edison Data Showed Major Fluctuations in Vote Counts - It’s an Algorithm! Scytl recieved the election raw data directly from election officials in at least 9 states. Elections are an additive process. Each raw data interval of reported votes should be an additive process, and you’d shouldn’t see any deletions. 
• Fulton County, Georgia Admitted they Didn’t do Signature Verification in Fulton County AT ALL, in the 2020 Election. The 2020 Election should NEVER have been certified...

• @HarrisonHSmith

• Everywhere Victoria Nuland was involved ended up in chaos and war. Now she’s being replaced by… THE GUY WHO MANAGED THE AFGHANISTAN WITHDRAWAL. (video)

• @RepThomasMassie

• CDC discloses they have at least a dozen medical industry LOBBYING GROUPS, officially SERVING alongside 15 voting members, on ACIP, the supposedly independent vaccine board that just approved the 9th booster shot.

• @WallStreetSilv

• Life insurance companies are reporting an unexplained increase in deaths among 18-49 year olds. "Sudden death among healthy working age people worldwide is skyrocketing". "Here in America it was up 40% during the third and fourth quarters of 2021". "Why are heart attacks suddenly claiming young lives?" (video)
• "Americans are so broke and they don't even realize it". "I always get Americans telling me that people in Mexico only make $20 per day" "You can get a full meal here for $2" "The metro in Mexico cost five vessels so that's .25 cents" "I can go to the market right now and buy 3 kilos of mangos for like $2" "Yeah, people make less money here but the cost of living is also lower" "60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck" "80% of you guys are in debt and don't own anything". (video)
• Bidenomics: (graph)

• @JesseBWaters

• NORMALIZING PERVERSION: Oklahoma students were made to lick peanut butter off of each other's toes for "charity,” after liberals made the case for child sex dollars for pedophiles. (video)
  

• @EndWokeness

• 4,000 ruthless gang members in Haiti just escaped from prison. Guess where they're about to end up.

•  @zerohedge

• Doritos Just Hired A Self Described Pedophile As A 'Brand Ambassador'.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,003,176 Reports(+2,451 from prior report) Through January 26th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.5 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.75 +1.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 116.6 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.0 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.3 +1.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.6 -.06%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.04%

• S&P 500 futures -.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.27%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.