Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABT)/.95
• (ASML)/3.15
• (BKU)/.59
• (FHN)/.33
• (PLD)/1.28
• (TRV)/4.90
• (USB)/.84
  

After the Close: 

• (AA)/-.64
• (OZK)/1.46
• (CCI)/1.72
• (CSX)/.45
• (DFS)/2.95
• (EFX)/1.44
• (KMI)/.34
• (LVS)/.61
• (SLG)/1.99
• (WTFC)/2.41
  

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,427,330 barrels versus a +5,841,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -940,000 barrels versus a +715,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -369,000 barrels versus a +1,659,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.56% versus a -.3% decline prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• Federal Reserve Beige Book release.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for February.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, 20Y T-Bond auction, IMF Meetings, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications, (ADBE) annual meeting, (SHW) annual meeting, (RF) annual meeting, (EQT) annual meeting, (RGLD) investor day and the (TPH) annual meeting report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +3.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.6 +.6
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 38.1% of Issues Advancing, 59.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.45 +93.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$110.2M
  
• 7 New 52-Week Highs, 107 New Lows
• 51.6% (-2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 34.0 -6.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.3 -.05%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.5 -.19%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,257.5 +.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 39.0 (Fear) -7.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 17.7 -11.3%
  
• Vix 18.4 -4.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .78 -15.2%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.25% to -1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 115.25 +9.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 73.5 +3.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 109.4 USD/Metric Tonne -2.5%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.62 -.19%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.7 +.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 +1.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.2%.

• S&P 500 futures -.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is Market Neutral heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Escalating Mid-East Regional War Fears, Surging Long-Term Rates, Diminishing Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.6 +1.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.16 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 67.6 +1.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.3 +.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.19 -.14%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.0 +3.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 128.0 +24.0
  

• Total Put/Call .87 +1.2%

• NYSE Arms .75 -66.7%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$64.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.60 +3.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 277.3 +1.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 274 +1
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.1 +.1%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 197.1 +1.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 144.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.75 -.05%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 184.6 +3.0%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 139.5 +4.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5 -.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -7.75 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 9.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 152.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 771.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 56.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.4%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 111.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.1 euros/megawatt-hour +1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.0 -1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.3 -3.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.6 -4.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(32 of 500 reporting) +19.7% -2.2 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 251.75 +.18:  Growth Rate +12.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.4 -.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.85% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.35 +.33: Growth Rate +30.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 -.6
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .98 -17.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .87 -13.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -31.0 basis points (2s/10s) +7.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.4% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 43.5% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.43% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 79.0%(+7.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 51.3%(+7.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -463 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: Market Neutral
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BAC)/.76
• (BK)/1.19
• (CBSH)/.80
• (JNJ)/2.64
• (MS)/1.67
• (NTRS)/1.45
• (PNC)/3.01
• (UNH)/6.61
  

After the Close: 

• (IBKR)/1.63
• (JBHT)/1.50
• (OMC)/1.54
• (UAL)/-.58
• (MRTN)/.12
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for March is estimated to fall to 1484K versus 1521K in Feb.
• Building Permits for March is estimated to fall to 1510K versus 1524K in Feb.
• NY Fed Services Business Activity for April.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.1% gain in Feb.
• Capacity Utilization for March is estimated to rise to 78.5% versus 78.3% in Feb.
• Manufacturing Production for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.8% gain in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Jefferson speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, IMF Meetings, updated Atlanta Fed Q1 GDPNow report, API weekly Crude Oil Stock report, (SPOT) annual meeting, (WHR) annual meeting and the (MTB) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.0 +.2
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 34.4% of Issues Advancing, 63.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .77 -65.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$125.0M
  
• 17 New 52-Week Highs, 57 New Lows
• 55.2% (+.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.0 -2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.8 +1.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 144.2 -.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,328.5 -.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 46.0 (Neutral) -3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 14.0 -31.2%
  
• Vix 17.2 -.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .82 -4.7%