Stocks Close Higher on Diminished Mid-East Regional War Fears, Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Financial/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.8 -10.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .54 -53.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.8 +.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.5 +.12%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.2 -2.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.8 -12.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 +38.0
  

• Total Put/Call .93 -13.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.01 +20.2%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$435.6M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.2 -4.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 274.0 -2.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 275 +12
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.4 -2.8%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 193.2 -1.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 basis points -7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.9 -1.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 177.7 -3.3%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 139.5 -1.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5 -.06%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 10.25 basis points unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 150.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 772.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 115.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.33%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.3 euros/megawatt-hour -4.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.4 -5.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.6 -3.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.6 +1.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(72 of 500 reporting) +8.4% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 252.56 +.35:  Growth Rate +13.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.8 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +78.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 315.68 +2.02: Growth Rate +31.4% +.9 percentage point, P/E 29.5 -1.6
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .85 -5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .65 -1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -35.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.9% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.1% -1.9 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.46% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 83.0%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 59.0%(+2.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +327 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +41 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +281 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added some back
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +1.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -3.6% 2) Electric Vehicles -.2% 3) Healthcare Providers +.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• VZ and INFA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MTTR 2) GSK 3) NUE 4) NRG 5) HON
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VAXX 2) AU 3) CNHI 4) VFS 5) CAH
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLK 3) XLU 4) XLE 5) KWEB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Regional Banks +2.3% 2) Video Gaming +2.3% 3) Semis +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RIOT, WOLF, CEPU, SE, CLSK, GGAL, KB, PDD, BMA, YPF, TROX, TGS, VSTO, FMS, KSS, PFS, LBAI, F, BLFS, KEX, PAM, UAL, MARA, NVDA, ZION, BIRK, SBS, MRUS, TFC, EQT, PNFP, VCTR, PHG, LVS and LULU
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BSX 2) FLR 3) MTTR 4) FUBO 5) DUK

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SPCB 2) MTTR 3) SE 4) LVO 5) GRYP
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) SMH 3) IBB 4) IAK 5) IXC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DHR)/1.72
• (FI)/1.79
• (FCX)/.27
• (GE)/.65
• (GM)/2.13
• (HAL)/.74
• (HRI)/2.15
• (JBLU)/-.52
• (KMB)/1.63
• (LMT)/5.82
• (NEE)/.75
• (PEP)/1.52
• (PII)/.05
• (PHM)/2.36
• (DGX)/1.86
• (RTX)/1.23
• (R)/1.71
• (SHW)/2.22
• (SPOT)/.63
• (UPS)/1.30
  

After the Close: 

• (BKR)/.39
• (CB)/5.31
• (EQR)/.91
• (IEX)/1.76
• (MANH)/.87
• (MAT)/-.13
• (STX)/.29
• (STLD)/3.51
• (TSLA)/.49
• (TXN)/1.97
• (V)/2.44
• (NVR)/103.97
• (WFRD)/1.44
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for April is estimated to rise to 52.0 versus 51.9 in March. 
• The S&P Global US Services PMI for April is estimated to rise to 52.0 versus 52.1 in March.
• The S&P US Composite PMI for April is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus 52.1 in March.
  

10:00 pm EST

• New Home Sales for March is estimated to rise to 669K versus 662K the prior week.
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April is estimated to rise to -8 versus -11 in March.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Index for April, 2Y Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, (BWA) annual meeting, (CMA) general meeting, (BLMN) annual meeting and the Maxim Group Mining/Processing Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -8.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.4 +.3
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 62.5% of Issues Advancing, 35.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.36 +61.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$240.5M
  
• 14 New 52-Week Highs, 34 New Lows
• 52.6% (+.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.0 +3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.1 -.14%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 141.3 -.13%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,526.0 -.06%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 33.0 (Fear) +1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 12.5 -32.1%
  
• Vix 17.9 -4.4%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.0 -6.5%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• China Is Front and Center of Gold’s Record-Breaking Rally.
• China Braces for Worst as It Becomes Punching Bag in US Election.
• Mexico Sends Troops to Border State Town After Candidate Killed.
• Dollar’s Extended Reign Delivers Stark Wake-Up Call for Markets.
• Asian Stocks Rebound With Earnings, Data in Focus.
• Oil Falls After Weekly Loss as Traders Focus on Middle East Risk.
• Bond Traders Look to Record Auction for Sign 5% Yield Is Peak. 
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia.

Zero Hedge:

• Congressmen Are "Terrified Of The Intel Agencies"; Tucker Carlson Warns They'll Frame Them With "Kiddie Porn".
• Sidney Powell Handed Win After Judges Dismiss Disciplinary Effort By Texas State Bar.
• Morgan Stanley: The US Has "A Couple Of Years" To Fix Its Unsustainable Debt Problem Or That's It.
• "Seven F*cking Dollars!": Social Media Influencer Rages After Paying $7 For An Apple At Whole Foods.
• 15 State Officials Warn Bank Of America About 'De-Banking' Of Christians.
• NYC High School Soccer Game Cancelled After Migrants Refuse To Leave The Field.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election.
• 'Hedge The Tails' - Goldman Sees Financial Conditions Tightening As Rate-HIKE Possibility Rises.
• Pardon Me? Michael Avenatti Flips, Willing To Testify On Trump's Behalf.
• Biden's Title IX Trans-formation Puts Women's Progress & Protections "On The Chopping Block".
• "Hard Crash": Construction Jobs In Philadelphia Set To Plunge As Residential Projects Hit A Wall.
• Judge Who Handed Down $454 Million Trump Penalty Set To Rule On Validity Of Reduced Bond.
• Should I Stay Or Should I Go?
• Is There A Road-Map For What's Ahead?
• Gold Miners Will Trade At "Multiples" Of Current Prices.
• Hartnett's Apocalyptic Vision: The Next Central Bank Bailout Will Be Of The Public Sector.
• Debt Matters: Why It's Time To Position Into Countries With Low Outstanding Debt.
• How Climate Change Narrative Is Preventing Africa From Modernizing And Gaining Prosperity.
• UK Physiotherapist Leaders Announce Goal To "Eradicate" Critics Of Gender Ideology From The Profession.
• 'Like Toys, Not Drones': Iran Continues Mocking Israel's Attack As Contrasting Narratives Emerge.
• Contracts Between US Universities, China Total More Than $2 Billion: Investigation.

Wall Street Journal:

• Inside the White House’s Scramble to Avert Full-Blown Middle East War.
• Pro-Palestinian Activists Dig In and Fan Out, as D.C. Pivots Toward Israel.
• Billions in Dirty Money Flies Under the Radar at World’s Busiest Airports.
• Chipotle Keeps Raising Prices. Gym Rats and Millennials Are Still Buying Burritos.
• Diversity Goals Are Disappearing From Company Reports.
• Company Bosses Draw a Red Line on Office Activists.

CNBC:

• Bitcoin miners upgrade power centers and get into AI to brace for slashed revenue post halving.

MarketWatch.com:

• S&P 500 heads for worst month since 2022 as bond yields jump on inflation fears.
• Tesla cuts prices for many of its models worldwide, slashes cost of Full Self-Driving in U.S.
  

NewsMax:

• Russia Threatens That Ukraine Will Be America's New Vietnam.
• Israeli Leaders Criticize Expected US Sanctions Against Military Unit.

 Fox News:

• WH rips ‘blatantly antisemitic’ mobs at Columbia as NYC mayor issues warning to anti-Israel agitators.
• Reporter sounds alarm on 'troubling numbers' for President Biden in latest poll.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Biden Regime Sues Sheetz Convenience Stores for Discrimination ONE DAY After Old Joe’s Embarrassing Botched Photo Op at a Sheetz Gas Station.
• PURE EVIL: Michigan Caregiver Viciously Beats Helpless 93-Year-Old Dementia Patient Before Choking Her – Victim’s Daughter Reveals How Family Caught the Attack on Tape (VIDEO).
• ANOTHER MAJOR BIDEN DISASTER: Niger’s Russian-Backed Military Junta Agrees to Release 1,000 US Soldiers After Biden Promises to Abandon the $100 Million US Airbase in the Country.
• Mandatory Queer Indoctrination at School Causes Huge Uproar.
• “Die MAGA Die” – New York Democrat Congressional Candidate Slammed for Wishing Death on All Trump Supporters.
• RINO Rep. Tony Gonzales Calls His Republican Colleagues ‘Real Scumbags’ on CNN – Compares Them to The KKK.
• WATCH: Houston Police Union Issues Warning That the Texas City is ‘Not Safe’ as ‘Many Suspected Murderers’ Are Walking the Streets.
• Leftist Rep. Ro Khanna Confirms He Will ‘Protect’ Speaker Johnson After Ukraine Vote: ‘He Deserves to Keep His Job’ (VIDEO).
• Republican Rep. Kat Cammack’s Office Drafting Legislation to Ban Foreign Flags in House Chamber.
• New York Home Depot Hires Guard Dogs to Protect Customers From Migrant Grifters.
• Two Dead, 14 Wounded, shot at Memphis “Block Party”, part of America’s Lawless Leftist Cities. 
• Breaking: Massive Cover-Up of Trans Shooter’s History in Nashville Covenant School Mass Murder Case.
• While NYC Dumps Resources Into ‘Getting’ Trump, Rat-Borne Disease Explodes Amid Squalid City Conditions.
• Watch: UK Police Threaten to Arrest an ‘Openly Jewish Man’ for Walking Near Palestinian Protest.

X:

• @WideAwakeMedia

• China: Taihang Mountain's plant and animal habitats are irreversibly demolished to make way for almost 3000 acres of solar panels. How very "green". (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• NEW Text Messages Discovered From The Head Of MEMA During The Lahaina, Maui Fires. The head of Maui County Emergency Management Agency texted ‘LOL’ while being informed the fires were burning out of control People were literally burning to death and they’re texting ‘LOL’. (video)
  

• @PeterSweden7

• Bill Gates. Why did he back a company that sprays fruits with a coating that has traces of arsenic and lead? Why is he backing projects that tries to block out the sun? Why did he donate $1.27 billion to the Agenda 2030 global goals? Why did he donate $319 million to the mainstream media? Why is he backing cow feed supplements aimed at reducing farts and burps? Why is he buying up so much farm land? Why is he backing a project that wants to bury trees underground? Why has he been pushing for fake lab grown meat? What's the end goal with all of this?

• @FXHedge

• 'UNHEALTHY DOSE' OF PESTICIDES FOUND IN POPULAR PRODUCE, NEW REPORT REVEALS (Fox Business). About 20% of all fruits and vegetables examined by Consumer Reports in a new report revealed an "unhealthy dose of dangerous pesticides."

• @MrAndyNgo

• Extremists part of the @Columbia CHAZ-style occupation chant support for Hamas terror: “Al-Qassam, you make us proud, take another soldier out”. “We say justice, you say how? Burn Tel Aviv to the ground”. “Hamas, we love you. We support your rockets too”. (video)

• @Catturd2

• To recap: Yesterday, the US Congress approved $61 billion to protect Ukraine and $0.00 to protect the US border. After the vote, they cheered and waved Ukraine flags and chanted “Ukraine Ukraine.” Note - neither party has ever worked together to pass a bill to help Americans then euphorically waved USA flags.

• @sahar_tartak

• A mob of Yale students shout "VIVA VIVA PALESTINA" as they tear down an American flag on campus, cheering when it hits the floor. (Oh, and university cops do nothing in response. Nor does the administration) (video)

• @WallStreetSilv

• Mexicans for Trump ... they are ticked off at all of the new illegals coming and messing everything up for them. (video)
• The way they structured the $60 billion for Ukraine, it continues funding for the war deep into 2025. Even if Trump wins and becomes President, now he can’t stop the war. They will impeach Trump for NOT sending the money and weapons to Ukraine if he tries to stop the war.
  

• @DefiyantlyFree

• It took 41 days to select the jury in the OJ Simpson case. It took 41 days to select the jury in the John Edwards case which is very similar to the Donald Trump case. It took 3.5 days to seat the jury in the Donald Trump case. You tell me what word other than biased and rigged and deck stacked against him apply.

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• If Chemtrails relating to Geo-Engineering are just a Conspiracy’ then why is the entire continent of Africa moving to ban them entirely……? (pic)
  

• @LawrenceSellin

• Chinese illegal alien invaders continue to flood into the United States unopposed and unidentified. Nearly all of those illegal Chinese are pro-Chinese Communist Party or else they would not have been allowed to leave. Many are criminals or military and intelligence personnel. (video)

• @Lawyergonerogue

• Part 14: RETWEET THIS FOR ALL TO SEE. Violence against Jews on Columbia campus. A group of what I suspect are Jewish students are caught in the middle of the jihadi supporting protest at Columbia. The mob throws bottles at their heads and screams: “Zionist!” “Genocidal Maniac!” “You’ve got blood on your hands!” “Fuck you!” “Genocidal Freaks.” “Bye, Bye, Fuckers.” Columbia IS NOT SAFE FOR JEWS!!!!! (video)

• @EndWokeness

• This is the current scene in Rio de Janeiro against the Lula regime. If not for 𝕏, you wouldn't know this is happening. (video)

• @SovMichael

• When a nation is engaged in war with another nation, certain strategies must be employed to ensure victory. Regrettably, the United States is employing all of these tactics upon itself, deliberately undermining its own position in the world and facilitating the rise of China, Russia, Brazil, India, and the Global South. (list)
  

• @Robin_i_brooks

• Brazil has never imported more from Russia than right now. The surge in imports began in 2022, i.e. right when Russia invaded Ukraine. The value of imports in Q1 2024 was $2.2 bn, up from around $0.5 bn on average in Q1 pre-COVID. Is this really the side Brazil wants to be on? (graph)
  

• @amuse
  

• WHY: Why did Biden sell our strategic oil reserves to China? Why is Biden preventing Ukraine for targeting Russian oil refineries? Why has Biden allowed Iran to increase oil production by a million barrels? Why is he shutting down US oil production? Why?

• @XVanFleet

• “Of all 87 people working there [NPR] in editorial positions, 87 of them are Democrats”. Welcome to Mao’s America! 100% of those who work in media in CCP’s China are Communists. Purges are carried out routinely to weed out impunity so that the Party is always in total control of its mouthpieces. (video)

• @Rickster_75

• Nancy Pelosi’s net worth over the years. (video)

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,009,553 Reports(+1,917 from prior report) Through March 29th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.0 +2.75 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 70.75 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 115.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.5 +1.9%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.5 -1.9%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.27%.
• S&P 500 futures +.22%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.28%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.