Stocks Surging into Close on Stable Long-Term Rates, Weaker US Economic Data, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(101 of 500 reporting) +6.8% -1.6 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 252.66 +.10:  Growth Rate +13.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.0 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +78.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 315.68 +.35: Growth Rate +31.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.2 +.7
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .96 +11.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .68 +3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -32.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.9% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.3% +2.2 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.49% +3.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 83.3%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 52.3%(-5.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +418 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +39 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +236 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -2.9% 2) Airlines -.9% 3) Electric Vehicles -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PKG, CALX, WBS, WRB, IVZ, VERX, CART, NUE, SSD, CLF, XRX, LKQ and MSCI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LSXMK 2) HTZ 3) GSM 4) CYTK 5) CORT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) JBLU 2) LKQ 3) XRX 4) NUE 5) SPWR
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) GDX 2) XOP 3) ARKK 4) KWEB 5) XLE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +3.4% 2) Alt Energy +3.2% 3) Disk Drives +3.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HIBB, SPOT, GL, FUTU, R, SNBR, DAWN, LFMD, AY, NEB, MEDP, DHR, CGEM, GATO, GE, RIOT, KMB, AVAV, GM, SAP, DGX, FL, PHM, BHVN, TME, HAS, SPHR, VCTR, ALCC, NSSC and OPCH
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SGMO 2) BSX 3) PR 4) APH 5) HTZ

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HIBB 2) KMB 3) SPOT 4) GE 5) DHR
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) MLPX 3) XLF 4) VGT 5) XLU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (T)/.54
• (BIIB)/3.45
• (BA)/-1.63
• (BSX)/.51
• (BG)/2.53
• (CME)/2.45
• (GD)/2.91
• (HAS)/.27
• (HLT)/1.41
• (HUM)/6.12
• (NSC)/2.91
• (ODFL)/1.34
• (OTIS)/.87
• (OC)/3.07
• (TDY)/4.63
• (TMO)/4.71
  

After the Close: 

• (ALGN)/1.97
• (CACI)/5.63
• (CMG)/11.69
• (ETD)/.64
• (F)/.43
• (IBM)/1.60
• (KNX)/.30
• (LRCX)/7.30
• (MTH)/3.55
• (META)/4.32
• (MOH)/5.68
• (ORLY)/9.27
• (RJF)/2.30
• (NOW)/3.14
• (URI)/8.37
• (WHR)/1.67
• (WH)/.74
• (FWRD)/.02
• (ROK)/2.15
• (SAVE)/-1.44
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for March is estimated to rise +2.5% versus a +1.3% gain in Feb.
• Durables Ex Transports for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Feb.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.7% gain in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed Q1 GDPNow update, 2/5Y T-Note auctions, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (GS) annual meeting, (CI) annual meeting, (TDY) annual meeting, (TXT) annual meeting, (GPN) annual meeting, (SAH) annual meeting, (ETN) annual meeting, (STRA) annual meeting, (AN) annual meeting, (BAC) general meeting, (NEM) annual meeting, (MYRG) annual meeting and the (APTV) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.4 +1.0
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 83.3% of Issues Advancing, 14.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.42 +47.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$201.5M
  
• 48 New 52-Week Highs, 13 New Lows
• 57.0% (+6.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.0 +10.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.2 +.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 141.6 -.13%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,657.4 +.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 40.0 (Fear) +7.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 12.1 -10.7%
  
• Vix 16.3 -4.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .92 -2.1%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Shadow Banking Stress in South Korea Sends Warning to Global Investors. 
• Asian Stocks Track US Rebound on Profit Optimism. 
• Oil Holds Modest Loss as Risks of Middle East Escalation Recede.
• Big Tech Is in Hot Seat to Deliver on AI Promises, BofA Says.
• JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Says ‘Correction’ in US Stocks Isn’t Over. 
• Columbia, Yale Get Tough on Protests as Students Refuse to Back Down.
• Tesla, Meta And Other Earnings Will Test Stocks’ Recent Selloff.
• SAP Cloud Revenue Meets Estimate as AI Adoption Fuels Demand.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia.

Zerohedge:

• Community Notes For The Win: VP Kamala Harris' Post Gets Instantly Debunked.
• How You Know The Joker Is Running Things...
• 'The Most Secure Election In American History': John Eastman.
• SCOTUS Will Hear Lawsuit Challenging Biden's ATF "Ghost Gun" Rule Before Elections.
• 'Threat Facing Our Country Is From The Far Left' And Socialistic Thugs, Not Trump: Bill Barr.
• "Our Cities Turn Into War Zones Every Night" .
• Planned Parenthood Abortions Among 'Top Four Leading Causes Of Death' In America.
• Iran-Linked Iraq Militia Says It Is Resuming Attacks On US Forces.
• If You’re A Criminal, This Is the County To Avoid.
• Congress Passes New Iran Oil Sanctions But Biden Unlikely To Enforce Them.
• US stocks clawed back some of last week's losses amid light catalysts - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Markets Can Absorb Geopolitic Risks, To A Point.
• Activist Who Called On Trans Women To "Arm Up" Enraged By Conservative Media Coverage.
• No Evidence FBI Used Counterterrorism Tactics on Catholics: Government Watchdog Report.
• While Congress Abandons Border, $3.5 Billion Slipped Into Israel Bill For 'Migrants And Refugees'.
• Tech revival boosts stocks, lack of geopolitical escalation hits gold and oil - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• NATO Member Rolls Out Red Carpet For Hamas Chief.
• The Bad Faith Olympics.
• Gold Hammered As Short-Squeeze Saves Stocks Ahead Of Micro/Macro Storm This Week.
  

CNBC.com:

• Tech’s earnings bonanza this week shines spotlight on growing troubles at Tesla, Google.
• FTC sues to block Coach parent Tapestry’s acquisition of Capri Holdings.
• UnitedHealth paid bad actors, says patient data compromised in Change Healthcare cyberattack.
• Luxury real estate prices just hit an all-time record.
• Billionaire donors rethink Columbia University support amid pro-Palestinian protests.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Nucor, Cleveland-Cliffs, Globe Life and more.
  

MarketWatch.com: 

• Gold posts biggest one-day drop in over a year as geopolitical concerns ease.
• Why you shouldn’t be too quick to dump your stocks just yet.
• Tech stocks show signs of ‘breaking down’ ahead of Big Tech earnings.
• Nvidia and AMD stand out on this new list of Wall Street’s 20 favorite stocks.

Fox News:

• Agitators at NYU chant antisemitic and anti-police phrases.
• City approves eye-popping sum for illegal immigrants as residents cry foul.
• Biden admin hits convenience store chain with lawsuit, despite campaign stop.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Controversies Involving Speaker Mike Johnson and His Sons Resurface — From Monitoring Each Other’s Porn Usage to Arrest of His Adopted Son on Charges of Running Illegal Cannabis Business.
• Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene Says Democrats Want Trump ‘Murdered’, After Bennie Thompson Introduces Bill to Strip Trump’s Secret Service Protection (VIDEO).
• WHAT A SNAKE: Mike Johnson Will Fundraise for Horrible RINO Tony Gonzales Two Days After He Accused Top Trump Supporters of Being KKK, Molesters and Neo-Nazis on CNN.
• You Can’t Make This Up: Minnesota Democrat Politician Arrested for Burglary, Just Days After Meeting with Far-Left Gun Control Group to Push for “Safer Communities”.
• Huge Chunk of Gen Z: Israel Has No Right to Exist as Nation in Mideast.
• Tucker: Our Politicians are TERRIFIED of Being BLACKMAILED | Beyond the Headlines.
• Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Blasts Joe Biden for False Claims About His Uncle Being Eaten by Cannibals During WWII.
• Lawsuit Seeks to ‘Ban the Jab’ in Florida — Declares Injections Biological and Technological Weapons.
• UN Denigrates Stay-at-Home Moms As ‘Victims’ of ‘Gender Inequality’.
• WAYNE ROOT: I’m a Jewish Columbia University Alumni. What if the Victims of This Hate Were Blacks, Instead of Jews? How Would the Nation Respond?
• Outrageous! Brillant Teen Student and Published Author with 100 GPA Rejected from Dream School Thanks to “Subjective” DEI Lottery Scheme.
• JUST IN: SCOTUS Denies Kari Lake and Mark Finchem’s Lawsuit to Ban Voting Machines Without Comment.
• Rep. Tim Burchett Says $6 Billion of the Foreign Aid Passed By House Will Enrich Pro-Hamas NGOs (Video).
• Weak, Compromised or Paid Off? Republicans Aid Democrats in the Destruction of America (VIDEO).
• “This Is a Very Sad Day for America” – President Trump Delivers Statement to America Outside of Court Room in Latest NYC Lawfare Trial (VIDEO).

X:

• @kylenabecker

• If you've only got 2 minutes to understand how the Biden administration is destroying America, this is the video that you need to watch.  (video)

• @FxHedgers

• The UK is facing a manufactured fake food shortage. The government has been at war with it's farmers for many years, forcing them to close with insane new regulations. It is not "climate change" related. It is 100% government inflicted if there is any food shortage.

• @WallStreetApes 

• The Biden Admin Rewrite of Title IX Goes Further Than Anyone Realizes In America, it is now “sexual harassment if you do not use the preferred pronouns for an individual”. Viral video calling for ALL women to stand against the Biden Admin & Democrats. (video)
  

• @BillAckman
  

• Imagine that you and your family borrowed the $360k it costs for four years at
  @Columbia plus interest at today’s rates. Regardless of your religious or ethnic background, is this what you signed up for? Private university mismanagement also begs the question as to why private universities should have the benefit of a tax exemption.

• @stillgray
  

• San Francisco is such a tragic place. It doesn't need to be like this.. BREAKING NEWS: FENTANYL IS SHOWING UP ON PLAYGROUNDS AND IN SCHOOLS. (video)

• @TaraBull808

• Meanwhile, in Ukraine, there are more bars and restaurants open than BEFORE the start of the invasion. Hmm I wonder why? (video)

• @The_Real_Fly

• COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY. (video)

• @JunkScience

• Electric cars are a Trojan horse for the destruction of driving -- @RossjournoClark.

• @WallStreetSilv

• DEI just took a heavy blow in the Supreme Court. It is now much easier as a white person to file a lawsuit and prove damages if your company uses DEI to hurt your career in favor is some other favored group.

• @ReduxxMag 

• Germany has passed a new law that will enable parents to "transition" their babies starting from the moment they are born. The Self-Determination Act has also established a €10,000 fine for exposing a transgender person's biological sex or "deadname."

•  @MrAndyNgo

• The lessons learned from the 2020 BLM-Antifa riots are being used in the current CHAZ-style occupations for Palestine by far-left extremists at @Columbia, @Yale & @UMich. For example, they're using @Venmo, @gofundme, @givebutter to raise unaccountable cash donations for supplies, bail, legal support and who knows what else. Meanwhile, supporters of the occupations are expressing open support for Hamas terrorism on counter-protesters as well as on civilians in Israel.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,009,553 Reports(+1,917 from prior report) Through March 29th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.25 -3.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 70.0 -.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 115.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.0 +1.8%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.3 -1.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.51%.

• S&P 500 futures +.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.