Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, China Economy Worries, Dollar Strength, Airline/Regional Bank Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.9 +7.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .78 -114.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.9 +1.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 186.2 -.14%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.9 +2.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.9 +6.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 114.0 -24.0
  

• Total Put/Call .97 +10.2%

• NYSE Arms .82 +6.5%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$475.4M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.6 +1.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 257.3 +1.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 263 -25
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.2 +1.8%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 165.4 +.85%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.6 +1.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 164.6 +.19%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 126.2 +1.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 -.22%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.5 basis points +1.5 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 9.75 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 145.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 733.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 57.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 -.47%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.41% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 118.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.22%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.9 euros/megawatt-hour +1.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.7 +1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.3 -1.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.3 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(481 of 500 reporting) +7.8% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 257.34 +.10:  Growth Rate +12.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.5 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.88% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +52.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 328.83 +.25: Growth Rate +22.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.3 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.0 -40.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.02 +11.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -36.25 basis points (2s/10s) +7.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.5% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 45.0% -2.1 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% -1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 88.9%(unch.) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 53.7%(unch.) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -175 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -16 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +91 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my financial/industrial/biotech/tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -2.6% 2) Energy -2.3% 3) Regional Banks -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CSTM, CCCS, NGG, TLK, WBA, CNC, NSIT, COP, UNH, MOH, FTAI, EVH, BMO, TOST, AAP, BHVN, OZK and AAL
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EYPT 2) HUN 3) AAL 4) ANF 5) PSTG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) OZK 2) AAL 3) AAP 4) TOST 5) UNH
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) SMH 3) XLK 4) XLB 5) IGV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +.1% 2) Internet +.1% 3) Retail +.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CHWY, ANF, DKS, NABL, BOX, DQ, MRO, INSM, IMVT, GPS, FLNC, TITN, JKS, CAVA, FROG, DELL, WIRE, SSTK, CSIQ, HCA and ACHC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ANF 2) GLBE 3) XLI 4) CHWY 5) ASTS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ANF 2) CHWY 3) DKS 4) MRO 5) DELL
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XOP 2) XRT 3) XLU 4) XLE 5) XLI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BBY)/1.08
• (BURL)/1.05
• (CBRL)/.66
• (DG)/1.58
• (FL)/.12
• (HRL)/.36
• (KSS)/.05
• (RY)/2.02
• (SPTN)/.54
  

After the Close: 

• (AMBA)/-.31
• (ASAN)/-.08
• (COO)/.83
• (COST)/3.71
• (DELL)/1.27
• (GPS)/.14
• (GES)/-.40
• (MRVL)/.24
• (MDB)/.38
• (NTAP)/1.79
• (JWN)/-.07
• (PD)/.13
• (ULTA)/6.25
• (ZS)/.66
• (FRO)/.86
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• 1Q GDP revisions. 
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 217K versus 215K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1796K versus 1794K prior.
• Advance Goods Trade Balance for April is estimated at -$92.3B versus -$91.8B in March.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for April is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.4% decline in March.
• Retail Inventories MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in March.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for April is estimated to fall  -1.0% versus a +3.4% gain in March.

11:00 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,214,430 barrels versus a +1,825,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,179.430 barrels versus a -945,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -151,710 barrels versus a +379,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.44% versus a +1.3% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, weekly Fed balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (ELAN) annual meeting, (CAKE) annual meeting, (NTGR) annual meeting, (TRMB) annual meeting, (XYL) investor day, (RBLX) annual meeting, (IRM) annual meeting, (NET) investor day, American Society of Clinical Oncology Meeting, Goldman Sachs Semi Conference, Leerink Healthcare Crossroads Conference, Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, Stifel Jaws/Paws Conference and the TD Cowen Tech/Media/Telecom Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -10.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.6 -.2
  
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 14.0% of Issues Advancing, 84.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .75 -2.6%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$371.7M
  
• 27 New 52-Week Highs, 75 New Lows
• 55.5% (-4.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 41.0 -9.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.2 +3.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 237.9 +.13%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,776.9 +.83%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 49.0 (Neutral) -5.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.1 +13.8%
  
• Vix 14.0 +8.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .97 +10.3%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China’s Property Rescue to Deliver Modest GDP Boost, Survey Shows.
• ‘Overcapacity’ Is the New Buzzword to Whack China.
• Japan’s Yen Falls to Weakest in Almost 16 Years Versus Pound.
• Asian Stocks to Trend Lower After Treasuries Drop.
• Oil Extends Gain as Geopolitical Tensions Simmer Ahead of OPEC+.
• Elliott Bets $2.5 Billion on Shaking Up Texas Instruments.
• Wall Street Returns to T+1 Stock Trading After a Century.
• Elon Musk Still Has Friends in Silicon Valley.

Zerohedge:  

• "Everybody Is Loving This": Former NYC Hotel Worker Says Cash For Housing Migrants Is "Going Around And Around".
• Rancher: Record High Beef Prices May Be 'New Norm'.
• F-35 Stealth Jet Crashes Near Albuquerque Airport.
• Co-Founder Of China's SenseTime Says AI Development Gap With US Is Closing .
• Former CIA Officer Pleads Guilty To Spying For The Chinese Regime.
• Sugar Traders In Denial As Ozempic Craze Ramps Up .
• Illinois School District Set To Produce Next $8 Million Superintendent Pensioner.
• Progressive Florida City Outraged By Pride Mural Vandals - "Manhunt" Underway.
• US stocks finished mixed amid higher yields following soft auctions - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Rep McCaul Leads US Delegation To Taiwan After Major Chinese Military Drills.
• It's The Immigrants, Stupid?
• Teflon Tech, Tired Trannies and Surging Rates.
• NVDA Sucks All The Oxygen Out Of The Market Again...
• No, Corporate Greed Is Not The Cause Of Inflation.
• Bond Traders' Angst Around Election Time Higher Than For Stocks.
• With First Debate Looming, Goldman Breaks Down Asset-Market Impacts Of Election Scenarios.

Wall Street Journal:

• Cancer Is Capsizing Americans’ Finances. ‘I Was Losing Everything.’.
• Iran’s Brisk Walk to a Nuclear Bomb. Biden is trying to hide that Tehran is trotting to a weapon at a pace of its choosing.
• Wall Street’s Favorite Recession Indicator Is in a Slump of Its Own.
• Streaming Bundles Are Here, and You May Need a Ph.D. to Navigate the Options.
• The Loneliness of the American Worker.
• Cooling for AI is a Hot Stock Market Trade—for Now.

CNBC.com:

• Hess shareholders approve $53 billion Chevron deal amid dispute with Exxon.
• HubSpot shares jump on talks of potential Google deal.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: American Airlines, Robinhood, Box and more.
  

MarketWatch.com: 

• The world’s largest pension fund may be running dry.
• Nvidia’s stock extends its surge — and this number shows why it’s ‘truly unique’.
• American Airlines drops its upbeat profit guidance, and stock drops 8%.
• Robinhood’s stock jumps 5% after $1 billion buyback unveiled.
• These companies are expected to be the fastest earnings growers in the S&P 500’s cheapest sector.

Newsmax:

• Putin Warns of 'Serious Consequences' If Western Arms Strike Russia.
• Ric Grenell: Our Freedoms Are Being Taken Away.

Fox News:

• 'The Breakfast Club' star says she was 'taken advantage of' as young actress in Hollywood.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• WATCH: “Not What This Republic Stands For” – Don Jr. Slams Marxist Democrats’ Witch Hunt Persecution Against President Trump, Says Jurors Will Likely be Swayed by “Undue Pressure” Outside Trump Show Trial.
• Jack Smith’s Proposed Gag Order and Nasty Email Exchange with Trump Attorney Todd Blanche Backfires as Judge Cannon Warns Sanctions Could be Next.
• DRONES EVERYWHERE: NATO European Nations Plan To Build a ‘Drone Wall’ Against Russia – US State of Colorado To Use UAVs as Police First Responders.
• Hollywood Star Dennis Quaid to Vote for Trump in 2024 Election, Cites ‘Weaponization of Justice System’ as Reason (VIDEO).
• Shock Poll: Trump Takes Lead Over Biden Among Black Voters.
• Trump’s Lawyer Delivers Crushing Blow to Michael Cohen in Explosive Closing Remarks — Calls Him ‘GLOAT’ – Greatest Liar of All Time.
• REPORT: Secret Service Has Met With Local Jail Officials to Discuss Preparations for President Trump to Go Behind Bars.
• This Does Not Sound Good: Louisiana Bill Will Gut Legislative Oversight over Election Process. 
• NEVER FORGET: Not a Single Election Expert Has Been Able to Explain the “Drop and Roll” Phenomenon that Flipped the 2020 Election Late at Night to Joe Biden.

The Epoch Times:

• China’s Property Stimulus May Hurt Smaller City Banks: S&P Global.

Around X:

• @BreitbartNews

• They know. Ask yourselves why they're phasing out gas-powered cars when they know this. Study: The amount of copper needed for EVs is 'impossible for mining companies to produce'.
  

• @newstart_2024

• New Papers ‘Completely Undermine’ the So-Called Settled Science on Manmade Global Warming: Alex Newman. The argument that climate change is “settled science” is no more. Scientists and researchers are now stepping forward to declare that the narrative is fake. Many are arguing that while the climate changes, there is no climate emergency. (video)
• Billionaire Bill Gates is funding dangerous gain-of-function research that seeks to create far deadlier and more contagious strains of bird flu capable of rapidly spreading through humans and livestock. Additionally, the Microsoft co-founder’s organization, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, is working with Democrat President Joe Biden’s administration for the research. 
• Eva Vlaardingerbroek: "So obviously there's an agenda against meat in general. It's cattle farm that they're trying to come after and there is a global agenda pushing for us to eat insects but also eating fake meat produced by people like Bill Gates for example. (video)

• @wideawake_media

• Australia: "400,000 chickens have been killed in Victoria to halt the spread of bird flu." Conveniently, "bird flu" provides the perfect pretext to advance multiple facets of the globalist agenda—killing multiple birds with one stone, if you will. The mass culling of poultry and cows will not only damage farmers, but will also lead to shortages of eggs, milk and meat, which helps advance the "eat the bugs" agenda. (video)

• @PeterBernegger

• Barr knew about all the bad stuff on the Hunter Biden laptop, before the Nov.3rd election, yet did nothing. Barr began his career with the CIA.

• @JamesMelville

• They told us to lockdown and socially distance while they held private parties. They told us to save the planet while they flew to climate summits in private jets. They told us that there was no magic money tree while they spent our tax money on wars and housing migrants in hotels. They told us that there was a cost of living crisis while they gave themselves a pay rise and we paid our taxes to fund their subsidised meals and energy costs in their second homes.
  

• @WallStreetApes 

• Corruption This Extreme Is Only Seen In US Government. Nonprofits paid billions of dollars to take care of illegal migrant kids. The CEO of the nonprofit makes $600k per year, “Before that, he worked at the DHS, THE SAME AGENCY THAT NOW THROWS HIM CONTRACTS.” “We're finding out where the border bucks are going. (video)

• @JohnLeePettim13
  

• A normal Honda Accord needs about 40 pounds of copper. The same battery electric Accord needs 200 pounds. Onshore wind turbines require about 10 tons of copper, and offshore approx. 20 tons. The world will need to mine 115% more copper than has been mined in all human history just to meet “business as usual.” This would meet our current copper needs and support the developing world without considering the green energy transition. (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho 

• Maui, Hawaii Fires. Last year great tragedy struck the Island of Hawaii as fires wiped out Lahaina, killing & displacing hundreds of locals. It’s all but forgotten about because Legacy Media don’t wish to draw unwanted attention to what happened. There are still independent citizen investigators trying to make sense of what happened. (video)

• @COVIDSelect
  

• Did @NIH's “FOIA lady” teach Dr. Fauci’s team how to hide COVID information? New evidence shows that NIH officials: Opened an encrypted Proton Mail account Misspelled key words Forwarded confidential materials to Gmail …all in an apparent effort to thwart federal law. (pic)
  

• @its_The_Dr

• This is why they get away with all the lies. (pic)

• @amuse

• ELECTION INTERFERENCE: Biden is urging Britain and France to let Iran to ramp up its production of nuclear missiles to prevent a confrontation prior to the November election. Biden is knowingly making the world less safe to win the election.
• LAWFARE: While Trump and everyone working with him is gagged from publicly speaking about the witnesses in his trial, President Biden is allowed to personally visit the star witness against his son. What did he tell Hunter's ex-wife? Did he promise her anything? Threaten her?
  

• @WallStreetSilv

• Popeyes Spicy Chicken Sandwich Ingredients? Are we being poisoned? (pic)
• BREAKING: Leaked Footage Of Public Health Officials Discussing Enhanced Surveillance & Farm Quarantining For Avian Flu. Will you comply with the next pandemic they try to push? (video)

• @tpvsean

• Big Pharma, governments, and hospitals around the world are scrambling to cover up the crimes they committed during the Covid pandemic, as the truth finally begins catching up with those who took the opportunity to play god and begin culling the herd. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,010,545 Reports(+992 from prior report) Through April 26th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.0 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 60.0 -.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 118.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.4 +3.8%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 13.7 -.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.12%.

• S&P 500 futures -.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modesty lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.