Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China Tightens Management of Rare Earths With New Regulation. 
• Chinese Golf Carts Surging Into US Prompt Pleas for 100% Tariff.
• The Dirty Side of China's Overseas Nickel Industry.
• Billionaire Carlos Slim Ramps Up Oil Bets Amid Buying Spree.
• Who Could Win Iran’s Presidency, and Why It Matters.
• Economic Cracks Are Getting Exposed in the 2024 Market Bounty.
• Where Stock Market Is Headed After Wild First Half: Five Charts.
• Goldman’s Hedge Funds Head Says It’s Time to Cut Portfolio Risk.
• Retail Traders Are Getting Bigger Than Ever in US Stock Options. 
• Chicken Soup for the Soul Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy.
• Replacing Joe Biden Is a Fantasy Democrats Must Abandon.

Zero Hedge:

• 21 Facts That Joe Biden Doesn't Want You To Know.
• NY Times Editorial Board Urges Biden To Quit Race - Did Trump Administer Premature Kill Shot?
• Target Finally Gets Serious About Out-Of-Control Thefts, Lowers Intervention Threshold To Just $50.
• Lithium: A Clean Energy Solution With A Dirty Secret.
• Costco To Build 800-Unit Apartment Complex In South Los Angeles.
• A Victory For Bitcoin: SCOTUS Overturning 'Chevron Deference' Is Monumental Shift.
• Numbers Don't Lie.
• UK Military Planes Making Secretive Flights To Lebanon From Cyprus.
• Which Countries Have The Highest Corporate Tax Rates In The G20?
• Customized B Vitamin Therapy Could Help Parkinson’s Patients, New Study Suggests.
• Taliban Power-Grab Over Opium Production Sparked Surge In Fentanyl Use.
• Ursula Von Der Leyen: Beyond Redemption.
• Why Won't The US Help Negotiate A Peaceful End To The War In Ukraine?
• DOJ Sues 5 Pro-Life Activists For Repeatedly Obstructing Access To Abortion Clinics.
• These Are The Most Expensive US Metro Areas To Raise A Kid.
• VDH: Stop The Ukrainian Meatgrinder?
• Iran Openly Talks About Building A Nuke In Historic Shift.
• You Keep Using The Term 'Authoritarian'...
• These Are The World's Least Affordable Housing Markets.
• Nearly 1-In-3 Americans Earning Over $150,000 Worry About Making Ends Meet: Fed Report.
• Supreme Court Rejects Bannon Bid To Avoid Monday Prison Deadline.
• Cultural Marxism: A Century Old... And Thriving.
• "Feels Like September": Atlantic Disturbance Could Be Upgraded To Tropical Storm Beryl This Weekend.
• Zelensky Gets More Realistic: 'We Don't Have A Lot of Time'.
• Ahead Of Stress-Tests, Banks Saw Big (Adjusted) Deposit Inflows, But...
• Nothing To See Here, Just A Smiling Robot Face Made From Living Human Flesh.
• Netanyahu Tells US Delegation Iran Seeks To Topple Saudi Arabia, Jordan.
• Stocks and Bonds whipsaw to US data on month/quarter end - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Biden's 'Blue Screen Of Death': They Knew, They All Knew...
• Rejection And Cheap Hedging.
• S&P Surges To Best Election Year H1 Since 1976 As Rate-Cut Hopes & Macro Data Collapse.

Wall Street Journal:   

• Postwar Vision Sees Gaza Sliced Into Security Zones.
• High Court Puts Biden Policies Like Net Neutrality and Ban on Noncompete Contracts at Risk.
• The World Saw Biden Deteriorating. Democrats Ignored the Warnings.
• Apple Watch Is Becoming Doctors’ Favorite Medical Device.
• Hezbollah Isn’t Getting the Message. By restraining Israel, Biden makes a major war in the north more likely.
• Why In-the-Know Men Are Dressing Like Cary Grant in 2024.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (HON), (DXCM) and (IRTC).

CNBC:

• Amazon is doubling value of credits for startups to build on AWS as Microsoft cloud gains ground.
• Record summer airline travel is starting, and so are the flight delays.
• Growth, value stocks could see boost from Russell rebalancing.
• S&P 500 returns 15% in the first half in an unusually smooth ride. 
• The 10 U.S. places with the highest cost of living—No. 1 costs more than double the national average.
• These could be the next big food and beverage trends.

MarketWatch.com:

• Biden says, ‘I can do this job,’ as betting markets put chance of re-election at new low.
• Stocks will fall 30% as the U.S. economy heads for a painful recession, strategist says.
• Super Micro and Nvidia lead the S&P 500 this year. These stocks follow. 
• These 20 stocks have been the S&P 500’s biggest losers so far in 2024.
• How Apple is borrowing from its 1980s playbook when it comes to AI. 
• Nike’s stock sees biggest drop ever as some analysts question company’s leadership after downbeat forecast.

NewsMax:

• Johnson: Making Illegals Voters 'True, Not a Conspiracy Theory'.
• Oddsmakers Still Bet on Biden as Candidate.
• Obama: Stick With Biden Despite 'Bad Debate'.
• Iran's UN Mission to Israel: 'Obliterating War' If Lebanon Hit.

Fox News:

• Trump campaign fires back, demands apology from Biden after 'ridiculous' cheap fake narrative.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Uh Oh… More Bad News for Democrats: Biden Cannot be Replaced on Ballot in Three Swing States, Except for Death or 25th Amendment.
• Mother of Child Murdered by Venezuelan Illegals Left “Shocked” by Phone Call from President Trump Minutes Before He Took Debate Stage.
• Steve Bannon Hosts War Room for Final Show Before He Reports to Prison on Monday – Democrats Lock Up Most Important MAGA Voice in America for 4 Months Before 2024 Election.
• DOD Reluctantly Fact-Checks Joe Biden’s Insult to the Military Heroes Killed Under His Watch: “We Have Certainly Had Service Members Pass During This Administration”.
• NOT SATIRE: Reporter Who Watched the Debate at a NURSING HOME Says Biden Got Slammed by Elderly Residents.
• The End of ‘Macronism’ in France sends Globalist Media Into a Panic, as Snap Legislative Elections Set to Hand Power to Marine Le Pen’s Right Wing RN Party.
• Jack Posobiec: ‘We Witnessed a Democrat Coup Against Biden’ (VIDEO).
• Popular Gay Porn Star Arrested for Sharing and Receiving Hardcore Pornography of Children and INFANTS.
• Barstool’s Dave Portnoy Says Dems Planned Debate Fail to Install Newsom: ‘Sent Biden out For Slaughter’.
• Massive U.S. Pharmacy Chain to Close ‘Significant Share’ of Stores as Locations Struggle.

Epoch Times:

• US Raises Concerns With Beijing Over ‘Destabilizing Actions’ in South China Sea.

Around X:

• @libsoftiktok

• Jacksonville, FL has been conquered by woke activists. Democrats are now flying a foreign flag from city hall. (pic)

• @charliekirk11
  

• Prepare to watch the most brutal CNN fact check of crooked Joe you’ll ever see. Has the call already gone out to take out Joe Biden? (video)

• @OliLondonTV

• Children’s Hospital use sick BABIES to participate in LGBTQI+ Pride, making young babies hold the rainbow flag as staff march through the hospital waving flags whilst wearing SpongeBob tshirts. (video)
  

• @KanekoaTheGreat

• Oxford Professor Carl Heneghan has extracted the main points from Kansas Attorney General's lawsuit against Pfizer, and they're damning.

• @CollinRugg

• BREAKING: The Border Patrol Union responds after President Joe Biden says the Border Patrol supports him. Biden: "By the way the border patrol endorsed me, endorsed my position. In addition to that, we found ourselves in a situation..." Border Patrol Union: "To be clear, we never have and never will endorse Biden." (video)

• @Kylenabecker
  

• Debunking Joe Biden's Claim That All of Trump's 2020 Election Challenges Were 'Baseless'. Joe Biden at the CNN presidential debate claimed that all of Donald Trump's election challenges were dismissed because they had "no merit." This is FALSE. (pic)

• @WallStreetApes

• No Longer A ‘Conspiracy Theory.’ Former Arizona State Senator Confirming There Are Trails Of Chemicals Sprayed From Planes That Are Toxic & Harming Your Health. ‌ Says “You better wake up and fight back now”. (video)
• Response To Joe Biden Saying NO EVIDENCE Of Voter Fraud In The 2020 Election During The CNN Presidential Debate With Donald Trump. Here’s California San Joaquin Sheriff Patrick Withrow Discoveries Regarding Voter Rolls -93 people registered w/ birthdate of 1850 -4,144 voters registered over the age of 90 (there's only 10.3k residents over 80 in that county...this number would drop off significantly at 90) -232 registered at local prisons -125 registered to a non-profit, NGO or business ~300 voters with no first name -110 potential double voters - same name, DOB, and address but different Voter ID numbers -Registered voter named Jesus Christ Democrats & Mainstream media call you conspiracy theorists, is this sheriff a conspiracy theorist too? (video)
• Team Nancy Pelosi Just Posted How Dare Trump Blame Anyone But Himself For January 6. Here’s ON CAMERA Paid Crisis Actor John Sullivan Confessing January 6th was a Plan to Takedown Donald Trump. Nancy Pelosi’s Daughter Filmed The Event & Sold It To HBO “We did it! You were right we did it! Is this not gonna be the best film you’ve ever made in your life, Hell Yeah!” (video)
• WOW! Proof Major American Food Industries Are Controlled By The Chinese Government. Journalist travels to China to investigate Chinese takeover of Smithfield Foods. “I was given a big, thick book that very explicitly says, Do Not Distribute in The United States”. Food and Water is weaponized in America.

• @WallStreetSilv

• As many of you have noticed, @RadioGenoa has been silent since June 11th. His house was raided by the police on June 13th. They took his phone, iPad, access to his X acct and email acct. His lawyers have reviewed the case and tell him that they are just trying to intimidate @RadioGenoa into stop sharing videos on X related to the illegal migrant invasion of Europe.

• @bennyjohnson
  

• FLASHBACK: This is the video that Donald Trump posted on January 6th telling people to go home peacefully that he just mentioned at the debate. Twitter 1.0 took it down within 5 minutes. They prevented people from hearing this… (video)

• @newstart_2024

• World Economic Forum (WEF) members have begun discussing plans to seize control of all elements of nature that humans rely on for survival such as food, water, and even the oxygen supply. During the WEF Annual Meeting of the New Champions, also known as “Summer Davos,” in Dalian, China, globalists declared that natural systems are finite and must be corporatized. During a Summer Davos panel discussion, WEF speaker Lindsay Hooper blasted members of the general public for expecting water and oxygen to be “unlimited” and “free.” Hooper, the University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership CEO, argued that food, water, and oxygen are “forms of natural capital” that global elites must put “on the balance sheet.”

• @EndWokeness
  

• Massachusetts Judge Susan E. Sullivan. She just released a Haitian migrant who rqped a disabled 15 year old in a hotel. His bail was set to a mere $500. (pic)
• BREAKING: Illegal alien who gunned down two NYPD officers says kiIIing cops is his culture. He works for the Venezuelan TDA gang. Bernardo Raul Castro Mata (19) revealed that firearms are smuggled into the NYC shelters through the food deliveries. Robberies are up 300% in the past year and police trace it back to the influx of illegals flooding New York City. (video)
• The experts told us Joe was fine. The experts told us to take the vax. The experts told us the laptop was fake. The experts told us the border is secure. The experts told us inflation is transitory. The experts told us 2020 was the MOST legitimate and secure election in history. Remember who the propagandists are. Never trust any of them again.
  

• @StephenM

• The cabal running our country just gave amnesty to 300K illegal aliens from Haiti, about 200K of which the Biden Admin flew to the US on secret migrant flights. This, as the US endures an epidemic of heinous migrant crime. The Dem Party wants illegals to vote and it’s not subtle.

• @Liz_Churchill10

• Adam Corolla absolutely roasts Covid Dictator Gavin Newsome. Lol. “Why did you shut the Beaches during Covid…?” “We didn’t know at the time…” “If you didn’t know anything…why did you shut the beaches…?”

• @InformedMama209

• As rumors are flying around regarding Gavin Newsom replacing Biden I want to show you what exactly Newsom has done to families and Californians. He hates us and is only interested in special interest groups that line his pockets. (pic)

• @JimFergusonUK

• *Exclusive Breaking News: Shocking Information About Graphene Oxide in mRNA Vaccines*. A highly educated top doctor and professor at seven universities, who is a senior virologist, epidemiologist, oncologist, and immunologist, has warned that graphene oxide is present in mRNA vaccines. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,011,672 Reports(+1,127 from prior report) Through May 31st, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (MSM)/1.34
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in April.
• The ISM Manufacturing for June is estimated to rise to 49.1 versus 48.7 in May.
• The ISM Prices Paid for June is estimated to fall to 55.8 versus 57.0 in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 estimate could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.2 -2.8
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 60.1% of Issues Advancing, 37.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.19 -.83%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$79.2M
  
• 98 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
• 53.6% (+1.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.0 +4.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.0 -1.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 240.5 +.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,087.9 +.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 46.0 (NEUTRAL) unch.
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.2 -15.3%
  
• Vix 12.2 -.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .77 -.49%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.25 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 66.75 +.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.10 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.7 +1.7%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 13.7 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.18%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Close on Lower Long-Term Rates, Quarter-End Window Dressing, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.5 -.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .51 -22.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.8 +3.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 188.6 -.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.8 -.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 9.4 -.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 173.0 +10.0
  

• Total Put/Call .72 -1.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.11 +11.0%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$108.4M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.98 -.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 273.5 +1.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 262 -3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.61 +.13%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 184.2 +.12%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 158.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.2 -1.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 175.2 +1.6%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 144.0 +7.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.15%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.75 basis points unch.
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 3.75 basis points -1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 148.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 721.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 61.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 +.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.6 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.2 -2.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -16.2 -2.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.9 +2.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +22.1% +15.9 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 260.53 -.14:  Growth Rate +14.2% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.0 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.86% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 328.71 +.10: Growth Rate +22.5% unch., P/E 34.6 +.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.04 +8.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .47 -8.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -42.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.7% -30.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 53.6% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.56% unch.: CPI YoY +3.12% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 57.9%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 49.9%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +303 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -194 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/biotech/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Restaurants -1.1% 2) Retail -.7% 3) Road & Rail -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FND, WOR, COR, SBS, CMG, MU, TRML, IP, AS, HIMS, SM, CTRI, LEVI, ELAN, NNE and WBA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NKLA 2) LEVI 3) IP 4) WBA 5) HIMS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WBA 2) CTRI 3) RXRX 4) AVAV 5) LEVI
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) SMH 3) XLV 4) XPO 5) XLF

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume