Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail -1.9% 2) Pharma -1.7% 3) Industrials -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AZN, GPC, ULS, REVG, ASPN, ZIM, CLF, CI, AAP, IRTC, SAIA, EW, CLW, COR, AAOI, AVAV, CVI, ODFL, EMBC, CHWY, HPE, WLY, VRNS, STNE, SG, TMDX, CPRT, IEP, CHCT, ZBH, VRNT, FYBR, XPO, MCK, TTC, AI, BASE, CRDO, ASTS and NSS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) APA 2) GXO 3) ASHR 4) MBLY 5) AI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AI 2) NSSC 3) HPE 4) CVS 5) SMCI
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLY 2) SMH 3) FHLC 4) FIDU 5) FENY

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth unch.
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +2.9% 2) Gold & Silver +1.4% 3) Electric Vehicles +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GIII, SATS, VSTS, KLG, SCVL, PRMW, ZETA, SHC, CASY, ALK, OLMA, EXAS, DLTR, ZK, KREF, IMVT, X, SMAR, TNGX, ARGX, TSLA, GATO, AMRK, DB, SILA, SAIC, AAL, ATHM, GTLB, ZS, BBIO, UAL and CATX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) APLD 2) APA 3) ALK 4) FYBR 5) VSTS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MODD 2) YEXT 3) CASY 4) SCVL 5) NIO
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLU 3) XLV 4) XOP 5) XLF
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -2.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.1 +.2
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 42.3% of Issues Advancing, 55.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.13 -11.7%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$124.3M
  
• 178 New 52-Week Highs, 54 New Lows
• 55.4% (-2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 62.0 unch.
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 49.5 +.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 221.5 +.05%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,205.9 +.92%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 47.0 (NEUTRAL) -5.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 17.3 +6.5%
  
• Vix 21.0 -1.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .61 -37.8%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.5 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 59.5 -1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 92.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.9 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 50.1 +1.2%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.3 -1.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.04%.

• S&P 500 futures +.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Yen Strength, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Regional Bank/Retail Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.9 unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.07% -5.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.8 euros/megawatt-hour -3.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -28.9 -3.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.3 -3.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.0 +3.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +11.4% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 265.96 +.12:  Growth Rate +13.8% unch., P/E 20.8 -.5
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.69% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +36.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 346.67 +.27: Growth Rate +22.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.1 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .54 -31.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .77 -7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -.5 basis point (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.04% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 71.9% +2.8 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 -6.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 49.7%(+5.0 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 39.3%(-5.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -377 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -25 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my Utility sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (GIII)/.27
• (KFY)/1.12
• (SCVL)/.81
• (TTC)/1.23
  

After the Close: 

• (AVGO)/1.21
• (DOCU)/.81
• (GWRE)/.54
• (SWBI)/-.02
• (ZUMZ)/-.33
• (RH)/1.62
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Aug.
  

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Aug. is estimated to rise to 145K versus 122K in July.
  

8:30 am EST

• Final Non-Farm Productivity/Unit Labor Cost reading for 2Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 230K versus 231K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1867K versus 1868K prior.
• Final S&P Global PMI readings for Aug.
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for Aug. is estimated to fall to 51.3 versus 51.4 in July.
• ISM Services Prices Paid for Aug. is estimated to fall to 56.0 versus 57.0 in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly Fed Balance Sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference, Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference, Barclays Consumer Staples Conference and the (DHR) analyst meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST