Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.9 unch.
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.07% -5.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 92.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.8 euros/megawatt-hour -3.8%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -28.9 -3.8 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.3 -3.8 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.0 +3.4 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +11.4% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 265.96 +.12: Growth Rate +13.8% unch., P/E 20.8 -.5
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.69% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +36.3% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 346.67 +.27: Growth Rate +22.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.1 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .54 -31.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .77 -7.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve -.5 basis point (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.04% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 71.9% +2.8 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 -6.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 49.7%(+5.0 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 39.3%(-5.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -377 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -25 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my Utility sector longs and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
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