Friday, September 20, 2024

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Escalating Mid-East Regional War Fears, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Technical Selling, Transport/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.66% -7.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 90.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.4 euros/megawatt-hour +4.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.5 +.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.8 +1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.5 -.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 500 reporting) +5.6% -7.3 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.66 +.06:  Growth Rate +14.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.4 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.66% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 350.63 +.21: Growth Rate +23.1% unch., P/E 32.7 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 +15.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .70 +2.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 15.25 basis point (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.93% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 65.5% -1.2 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% unch.: CPI YoY +2.27% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 50.1%(unch.) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 41.5%(-2.1 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +467 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -21 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +191 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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