Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.16%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.63% +2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.0 euros/megawatt-hour +1.2%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.8 +5.3 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -56.8 +1.3 basis points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.7 +.5 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(15 of 500 reporting) +26.9% -1.5 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.60 -.10: Growth Rate +14.2% unch., P/E 21.5 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.65% -2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 364.69 +.64: Growth Rate +28.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.2 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .76 -5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .70 -6.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 14.5 basis point (2s/10s) -4.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.08% +15.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 62.6 -.3 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% -19.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 +2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 47.9%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 45.4%(+4.3 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +350 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -296 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +213 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/biotech/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
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