Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.73 +.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.0% +4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 92.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.15%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.1 euros/megawatt-hour +2.44%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.8 +5.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -40.3 +1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.8 +2.0
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +11.6% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.55 +.06:  Growth Rate +14.0% unch., P/E 20.5 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.67% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +36.3% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 348.68 +.11: Growth Rate +22.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.8 +.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .52 -7.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .56 -15.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve .75 basis point (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.47% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 74.6% +2.2 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% +3.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.29% -27.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.04 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 48.8%(+21.4 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 47.5%(+11.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -219 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +151 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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