Monday, September 23, 2024

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, China Stimulus Hopes, Technical Buying, Homebuilding/Defense Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.12%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.62% -4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 90.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.2 euros/megawatt-hour +5.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.6 -1.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -56.2 -28.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.7 -.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 500 reporting) +5.6% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.87 +.21:  Growth Rate +14.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.4 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.66% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 351.08 +.45: Growth Rate +23.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.6 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 -1.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .70 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 16.0 basis point (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.93% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 64.3% -1.2 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% unch.: CPI YoY +2.27% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 50.0%(unch.) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 40.2%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +542 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +44 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +210 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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