Thursday, September 26, 2024

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @annvandersteel
  • @TomiLahren
  • @megynkelly
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @JesseBWatters
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @catturd2 
  • @RepTiffany
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @jackunheard
  • BREAKING: The Coca Cola boycott is officially happening. Their new custom website allows the use of "Harris 2024" but prohibits "Trump 2024" due to it being deemed "political in nature" or "offensive." This is election interference. People have also reported that you can use the name "Allah", but not "Jesus" because they restrict "religious figures" to not offend anyone. Last time I checked, "Allah" is a religious figure.
  • @BoLoudon
  • @bennyjohnson
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.0 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 58.5 -2.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne +2.3%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.3 +1.6%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 -.26%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.24%.
  • S&P 500 futures unch.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on China Stimulus Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Airlines Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 +.23%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.61% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.9 USD/Metric Tonne +2.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.9 euros/megawatt-hour +1.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.3 +7.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -57.6 +.5 basis point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.6 +1.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(13 of 500 reporting) +28.4% +23.0 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.70 +.08:  Growth Rate +14.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.67% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 364.05 +.32: Growth Rate +27.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.3 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .76 +11.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 16.75 basis point (2s/10s) -5.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.93% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 62.9 -.5 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 50.5%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 44.7%(+5.0 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +536 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +490 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +203 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -3.2% 2) Energy -1.4% 3) REITs -.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BKR, DVN, OVV, PAA, OKE, TDW, QNST, VIST, FANG, NBR, CRTO, CLDX, AHH, ARIS, MMYT, CNXC and SMCI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) INFN 2) SHEL 3) BB 4) ABR 5) STNE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SMCI 2) CNXC 3) PGY 4) SONO 5) COP
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLI 3) KRE 4) XLV 5) IAI

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +5.7% 2) Social Media +4.4% 3) Disk Drives +4.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • TAL, BEKE, HTHT, BILI, NNE, MU, PDD, JD, EDU, ICHR, CAMT, YUMC, ATAT, BZ, JBL, XPEV, NOAH, TCOM, ACMR, BABA, RMBS, MBLX, MSTR, TME, MSTR, EH, EL, MARA, GOOS, BIDU, MNSO, ONTO, VIPS, AA, UAL, GCT, ZLAB, SCCO, PUK, CLSK, ALB, FUTU, WYNN, DQ, FLEX, LI, MD, FCX, ZTO, LUV, COIN, UCTT, CE, AAL, ACLS, TECK, FRO, LITE, ACIC, MUX, SYRE, WDC, LEGN, DAL, LRCX, NVMI, JKS, WCC, SQM, VALE, BHP, JKS, WWW, LOVE, WFC, MT, SKX, DEO, NTES, ACN, STAA, TNK, FSLR, NCLH, KMX, RIO, PPG, BHVN, ATXS, ERO, LSPD, AOS, TVTX and CCL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) MLCO 2) TIGR 3) YANG 4) PGY 5) WYNN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MU 2) JBL 3) BABA 4) FCX 5) LRCX
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) PPA 2) SMH 3) XBI 4) CCNR 5) XLB
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Personal Income for Aug. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in July.
  • Personal Spending for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in July.
  • The PCE Core Price Index MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in July.
  • Advance Goods Trade Deficit for Aug. is estimated at -$100.2B versus -$102.8B in July.
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in July.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.8% gain in July.

9:00 am EST

  • Bloomberg US Economic Survey for Sept.

10:00 am EST

  • Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment final readings for Sept.

11:00 am EST

  • Kansas City Fed Services Activity for Sept.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bowman speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, Dallas Fed PCE for August, US Baker Hughes weekly rig count, CFTC speculative net positioning reports and (AVAV) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +27.2% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.9 -1.1
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 63.0% of Issues Advancing, 35.0% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .98 -18.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$148.8M
  • 247 New 52-Week Highs, 21 New Lows
  • 60.1% (+3.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 67.0 +5.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 57.1 +3.5%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 228.4 +.82%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,842.9 -.9%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 71.0 (GREED) +4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.5 +4.2%
  • Vix 15.6 +1.1%
  • Total Put/Call .75 unch.