Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AB)/.72
• (AAL)/.16
• (BYON)/-.77
• (BC)/1.20
• (CRS)/1.59
• (CARR)/.81
• (CBRE)/1.06
• (DOW)/.46
• (FCN)/2.06
• (HOG)/.81
• (HAS)/1.29
• (HON)/2.51
• (KDP)/.51
• (LH)/3.48
• (LEA)/2.54
• (NOC)/6.08
• (RS)/3.66
• (R)/3.41
• (SAH)/1.43
• (LUV)/.06
• (TSCO)/2.24
• (UNP)/2.78
• (UPS)/1.63
• (VLO)/.98
• (VC)/1.83
  

After the Close: 

• (APPF)/1.03
• (SAM)/5.00
• (BYD)/1.40
• (COF)/3.77
• (CSL)/5.82
• (FIX)/3.97
• (DECK)/1.23
• (DLR)/1.67
• (EW)/.66
• (LHX)/3.25
• (MHK)/2.89
• (OLN)/.04
• (TXRH)/1.32
• (WDC)/1.71
• (WY)/.00
• (HTZ)/-.43
• (ARCH)/1.83
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to .5 versus .12 in Aug.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 242K versus 241K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1875K versus 1867K prior.
  

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Oct. is estimated to rise to 47.5 versus 47.3 in Sept.
• S&P Global US Services PMI for Oct. is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 55.2 in Sept.
• S&P Global US Composite PMI for Oct. is estimated to fall to 53.8 versus 54.0 in Sept.
  

10:00 am EST

• Net Home Sales for Sept. is estimated to rise to 720K versus 715K in Aug.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Oct. is estimated to rise to -7 versus -8 in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The IMF meetings, Fed's weekly balance sheet reports, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (BYON) investor meeting  could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.25 +1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 64.75 +.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.4 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 62.6 +.9%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.5 +.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.14%.

• S&P 500 futures -.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.22%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Financial/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.4 +.07%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.62% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.98%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.70 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.2 +.8 point
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -9.9 +1.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.1 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(98 of 500 reporting) +5.1% -1.6 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.78 -.02:  Growth Rate +14.8% unch., P/E 21.8 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.63% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +40.2% n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 369.61 +.24: Growth Rate +29.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .92 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .96 +17.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 16.5 basis point (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.43% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 46.8 -2.7 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.57% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 68.3%(+3.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 46.7%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +54 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +65 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +155 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my biotech/utility sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -3.4% 2) Computer Hardware -2.3% 3) Steel -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CLSK, SHW, KMB, CRL, ASPN, WRB, VZ, SSD, ELF, MHK, NUE, PCAR, NRDS, EH, CR, PHM, LMT, SMR, IPG, DFH, OKLO, MEDP, PSTG, LOGI, TGLS, PII, GE, NNE and GPC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NXE 2) KVUE 3) SAVE 4) NKLA 5) KBE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GPC 2) GE 3) PII 4) TGLS 5) MEDP
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) KRE 3) XLP 4) XLE 5) OIH

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.3%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.8% 2) Software +1.4% 3) Alt Energy +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• IRTC, HRI, MLI, IGMS, SDA, GM, PM, GRND, DJT, DGX, DQ, ALTR, ZION, ZBIO, CRMD, NSC, CSTM, SA, CORZ, JKS, BANC, CADE, SOC, TAL, GATO, PAAS, LEGN, MUX, PDD, URI, COGT, WOLF, ENVA and LH
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SGMO 2) FTI 3) IVZ 4) GE 5) MMM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PM 2) MLI 3) HRI 4) DJT 5) NSC
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLB 2) IGV 3) XBI 4) SMH 5) XLI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (T)/.57
• (BA)/-10.35
• (CME)/2.65
• (KO)/.75
• (GEV)/.17
• (GD)/3.48
• (HLT)/1.84
• (COOP)/2.57
• (NEE)/1.00
• (ODFL)/1.42
• (SF)/1.60
• (TMO)/5.24
• (VRT)/.69

After the Close: 

• (ALGN)/2.31
• (CP)/1.01
• (CLS)/.93
• (GGG)/.76
• (IBM)/2.22
• (KNX)/.32
• (LRCX)/.81
• (LVS)/.53
• (MOH)/5.94
• (NEM)/.87
• (OII)/.43
• (ORLY)/11.53
• (RJF)/2.41
• (NOW)/3.45
• (TER)/.78
• (TSLA)/.60
• (URI)/12.56
• (WHR)/3.20
• (WH)/1.38
• (BSX)/.59
• (FWRD)/-.17
• (SAVE)/-2.30
• (WFRD)/1.67
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for Sept. is estimated to rise to 3.89M versus 3.86M in Aug.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +728,670 barrels versus a -2,191,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,597,830 barrels versus a -2,201,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,079,330 barrels versus a -3,534,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.33% versus a +1.0% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• Federal Reserve Beige Book release.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, 20Y T-Note auction, IMF meetings, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (PH) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST