Saturday, January 04, 2025

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:
WSJ.com:   
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (CHEF).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:  

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

4th PSYOP Group:
DailyMail.com:
Psywarrior.com
Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @CollinRugg
  • @TonySeruga
  • @dbongino
  • @GBNT1952
  • @KanekoaTheGreat
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • As Hillary Clinton is given the Presidential Medal of Freedom today… • This is a reminder Hillary Clinton's State Department covered up an elite pedophile and human trafficking ring. • Her husband, Bill Clinton went to Epstein Island approximately 26 times and according to court documents, “Liked them Young” • Also, Laura Silsby and the Clintons were caught red-handed kidnapping and attempted Human Trafficking Children out of Haiti… The MSM covered it up. Laura Silsby changed her name to Laura Gayler after her release from detention in Haiti… She went on to become the Vice President of Marketing for AlertSense, a company that provides technology for issuing Amber Alerts… for missing children. Ain’t life grand?
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @realannapaulina
  • @nicksortor
  • @RadioGenoa
  • @robbystarbuck
  • @ClayTravis
  • @songpinganq
  • @realLegendAfg
  • @amuse
  • @Liz_Churchill10
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @AlchemyAmerican
  • @LeadingReport
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @PeterSweden7
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @IGSquawk 
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:

Friday, January 03, 2025

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Diminished US Terrorism Angst, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.7 +.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.6 euros/megawatt-hour -1.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.7 +3.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -12.4 +.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 272.29 +.13:  Growth Rate +14.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.8 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 393.38 +.11: Growth Rate +25.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.9 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.39 -97.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 31.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.45% -14.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.9% -.9 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 51.5% (+2.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 45.2%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -198 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +138 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +2.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy +5.1% 2) Semis +3.0% 3) Computer Hardware +2.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CRNC, SERV, ATOM, OKLO, RIVN, ACHR, OUST, RIOT, DNA, TEM, LUNR, MP, IONQ, ANAB, BTDR, PGY, SSTK, RCAT, ACHC, RDDT, ARM, VST, MBLY, PAY, SOUN, SQ, CHWY, CGON, FTI, KD, JBL, AMBA, PRTH, ALGM, CEG, MRC, GEAR, MELI, BMEZ, UBS, TMDX, NTR, GPRK, EOLS, TEO, QXO, FFIC, UBER and MOS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CRNC 2) GT 3) GEVO 4) JPM 5) NRG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CRNC 2) RIVN 3) CYCC 4) NUS 5) LFCR
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) VGT 2) IYW 3) MSTY 4) IBB 5) XLC
Charts:

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CMC)/.79
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

  • Final S&P Global US PMI readings for Dec.

10:00 am EST

  • Factory Orders for Nov. is estimated to fall -.4% versus a +.2% gain in Oct.
  • Final Durable Goods Orders readings for Nov.

Upcoming Splits

  • (ODC) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Cook speaking, the CFTC speculative net positioning reports and the Goldman Energy/CleanTech/Utilities conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -.1% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 20.2 -.5
  • 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
  • 71.8% of Issues Advancing, 26.6% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.48 +55.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$196.6M
  • 27 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
  • 52.9% (+2.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 39.8 +1.8
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.1 +3.4%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 249.6 +.02%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,798.1 +.5%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 30.0 (FEAR) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 11.5 -25.7%
  • Vix 16.8 -6.5%
  • Total Put/Call .75 -26.6%

Thursday, January 02, 2025

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.0 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 65.0 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.9%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.8 +.1%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.2 -.7%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.24%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.16%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.27%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and energy shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.