Monday, January 13, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • @FFAFamily
  • @GardensR4Health
  • @NickSortor
  • @BuzzPatterson
  • @WallStreetApes
  • Los Angeles Fire Department chief Kristin Crowley lists amount of out of service LA Fire Department equipment: - 40 fire engines - 36 rescue ambulances - 10 of our trucks also out of service - Close to 15%-20% of our fleet. How could Gavin Newsom and Karen Bass let this happen? (video)
  • @CollinRugg
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @MarioNawful
  • @ImMeme0
  • @houmanhemmati
  • @TomHoman_
  • @EndWokeness
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @TaraBull808
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @catturd2
  • @catsscareme2021
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.0 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 61.25 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.79 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.2 +.8%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.7 -1.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.64%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.26%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.39%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Rotation into Value, Bargain-Hunting, Healthcare/Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.1%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.3 euros/megawatt-hour +7.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.1 -1.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.6 -1.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.3 +.6 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(22 of 500 reporting) +20.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 273.11 +.06:  Growth Rate +14.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.2 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.59% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 395.31 +.54: Growth Rate +26.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.3 -.4
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .63 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.53 +4.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 39.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.73% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 19.5% -4.0 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 79.8% (+4.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 68.5%(+5.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -465 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -48 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +168 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Regional Banks -2.8% 2) I-Banks -2.6% 3) Alt Energy -2.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • URBN, SONO, RDNT, PCG, CRSP, WGS, SSTK, CRNX, TTGT, DYN, SUPV, MMYT, SHAK, SRDX, CEG, RCKT, MCY, TMDX, VERA, FTAI, PENG, NUVL, MRUS, KNSA, RXST, ORKA, SWTX, INSP, EIX, MDGL, NIR, KROS, IONQ, TEM, CSTL, ANF, SERV, MRNA, NNE and ESTA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SPLV 2) CSIQ 3) EIX 4) RSP 5) AMKR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) QBTS 2) MRNA 3) EIX 4) QUBT 5) HUMA
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLC 2) SMH 3) XLI 4) XLE 5) XLB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Healthcare Providers +2.7% 2) Steel +2.5% 3) Energy +2.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ITCI, SIBN, BNED, BBIO, OPCH, BPMC, ALHC, AXSM, ATEC, HHH, ENFN, ARIS, FRO, CVS, DCTH, X, STLD, VLO, VITL, TNK, BBVA, WIX, KTOS, PENN, RYAN, BRKR, RPRX, UTZ, STZ, NTES and DINO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) EIX 2) BBIO 3) GERN 4) NTR 5) CF
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SAGE 2) ITCI 3) DJT 4) AXSM 5) CVRX
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) IGV 2) XLK 3) IAI 4) IBB 5) ITA
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (PGR)/3.57
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to 102.1 versus 101.7 in Nov.

8:30 am EST

  • PPI Final Demand MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Nov.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Nov.

2:00 pm EST

  • The Federal Budget Deficit for Dec. is estimated at -$80.0B versus -$366.8B in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

  • (RLI) 2-for0-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Schmid speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for Jan., EIA short-term energy outlook report, weekly API crude oil stock report, ISI Retail/Consumer Summit and the (CMC) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +19.4% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.1 +.3
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 46.1% of Issues Advancing, 52.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .84 +7.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$137.4M
  • 10 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
  • 45.6% (-1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 35.3 +1.6
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.7 +1.5%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 255.8 +.8%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,396.0 -1.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 26.0 (FEAR) -2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 15.0 -8.4%
  • Vix 19.4 -.7%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 +1.0%