NYSE Composite Index:
- Volume Running +26.2% Above 100-Day Average
- Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.4 +3.5
- 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
- 78.7% of Issues Advancing, 19.8% Declining
- TRIN/Arms 1.37 +3.7%
- Non-Block Money Flow +$234.1M
- 146 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
- 57.0% (+4.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
- Average 14-Day RSI 64.5 +5.0
Other:
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.3 -1.5%
- Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 257.1 -.3%
- Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,256.6 +.5%
- CNN Fear & Greed Index 42.0 (FEAR) +4.0
- 1-Day Vix 10.2 -3.6%
- Vix 15.1 -4.2%
- Total Put/Call .73 +1.4%
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.25 -1.5 basis points.
- China Sovereign CDS 57.25 -.5 basis point.
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.1%.
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.3 -2.1%.
- Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.1 -.8%.
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.21%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%.
Morning Preview Links
BOTTOM LINE:
Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial
shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally
into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio
is 100% net long heading into the day.
Around X:
- President Trump needs the full story on Penny Schwinn’s education history in TN. I really hope he reconsiders her nomination.
Penny says her core value is "Equity for all… no matter what." On her
watch TN’s Department of Education even embraced DEI for hiring
teachers. She may be a very nice person but naming her Under Secretary
of Education at this critical juncture isn’t a good idea when she’s been
a believer in this toxic DEI ideology. Penny also backed the
authoritarian idea of the state coming into homes doing wellness checks
on kids during COVID and she backed the masking of kids. Despite being
in a very red state where parents did everything we could to eliminate
CRT and pornographic books, her department was a constant roadblock.
I’ve been receiving texts from upset Moms in Tennessee all day who
simply can’t fathom her as Under Secretary of Education. It feels like
failing upwards after trying to advance DEI in a red state. I pray she’s
had a change of heart on these issues but she should not be promoted
after her tenure here. (video)
- You voted Democrat your whole life.
They told you that carbon is bad and the climate was going to destroy
the Earth. They convinced you to buy Solar Panels (from China) to save
the Planet. Buy Electric Cars to cut down on your Carbon footPrint. They
filled our food with unhealthy substances and told you to stop eating
meat so you did...
Bloomberg:
- Had bullish commentary on (HSY).
CNBC:
MarketWatch.com:
NewsMax:
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Epoch Times:
Around X:
- EXCLUSIVE: TRUMP INAUGURATION MOVED INSIDE DUE TO “CREDIBLE” THREAT FROM CHINESE DRONES.
The 60th Presidential inauguration has been moved inside, not primarily
due to extreme cold weather forecasted to begin Sunday, but directly
because of a “credible” threat of civilian-grade DJI drones being used
as tools of assassination against the President, in-coming cabinet
members, and citizens supporters.
Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 unch.
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.13%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.9 euros/megawatt-hour +1.4%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.8 +8.4 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.9 -.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.6 +3.7 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(42 of 500 reporting) +21.9% -2.0 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 273.74 +.46: Growth Rate +14.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.9 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.36% -2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 396.33 +.49: Growth Rate +26.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.4 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .72 -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.63 -1.0 basis point
- US Yield Curve 34.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.99% +3.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.8% +1.8 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.83% unch.: CPI YoY +2.82% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 71.6% (+5.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 55.6%(+5.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +409 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +45 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +115 open in Germany
- Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Pharma -1.6% 2) Shipping -1.1% 3) Road & Rail -.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- STT, SYM, LUCK, AGYS, NVO, JBHT, ARQQ, SUPV, FLNC and CECO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) IVZ 2) LAC 3) NU 4) EQT 5) FITB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) WOLF 2) SYM 3) ZETA 4) NXT 5) HUMA
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow: - 1) KRE 2) OIH 3) VIS 4) VHT 5) XLV
