Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (T)/.49
• (SOFI)/.04
• (BOH)/.84
  

After the Close: 

• (BRO)/.77
• (CR)/1.20
• (GGG)/.76
• (NUE)/.64
• (SANM)/1.36
• (WRB)/.96
• (WAL)/1.90
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Dec. is estimated to rise to 670K versus 664K in Nov.
  

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 2/5Y T-Note auctions, (VVV) annual meeting and the (SMG) annual meeting could also impact global on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.5 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 55.25 -1.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 74.6 +.4%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.6 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.25%.

• S&P 500 futures -.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Trump Policy Initiatives, Short-Covering, Road & Rail/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.8 -2.3%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .42 +2.2%.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 73.8 +.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 181.4 -.27%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.2 -.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 11.5 +.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 172.0 +7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .74 -2.6%

• NYSE Arms .67 -50.7%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$17.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.9 -.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 276.5 +.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 184 -7
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.55 -.13%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 144.84 +.42%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.5 +1.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 157.1 -.4%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 89.0 +.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.97 -.15%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.0 basis points unch.
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 3.75 basis points unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 137.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 609.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 43.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.01%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.1 euros/megawatt-hour +.84%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.7 -1.1 point
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -24.9 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.9 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(70 of 500 reporting) +18.9% +.4 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.28 +.07:  Growth Rate +15.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% -2.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +97.6% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 398.63 +1.44: Growth Rate +27.1% +.4 percentage point, P/E 34.5 -.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .87 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.76 +1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve 35.0 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.99% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.4% -1.0 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.83% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 73.6% (-1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 54.2%(-2.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -48 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +10 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +172 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/financial/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Electric Vehicles -1.1% 2) Semis -.9% 3) Gold & Silver -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• QGEN, DCOM, VEEV, PRGS, FLYW, BAH, AGYS, SAIC, CACI, RLI, TXG, ARM, AAL, GOLF, PSN, ROAD, ASTS and EA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EA 2) SLM 3) EXPE 4) SABR 5) ALK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EA 2) ROAD 3) ASTS 4) GOLF 5) AAL
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) VGT 3) KRE 4) GDX 5) XLV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail +2.1% 2) Healthcare Providers +1.4% 3) Agriculture +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NNE, HIMX, WNS, TAL, HZO, OKLO, OSIS, SMR, ETON, TRIP, GWRE, ARWR, FTAI, TKO, CON, GE, TEM, GDS, CIEN, EDR, KNX, MMYT, LOGI, ARLP, BKV, BEP, ABT, VST, NWG, BEPC, HXL, ALK and PDX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EA 2) TRIP 3) LTBR 4) KOPN 5) PGEN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) XCUR 2) LYTS 3) WNS 4) TAL 5) VNCE
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLK 3) IYW 4) XLU 5) XLP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AXP)/3.03
• (HCA)/6.13
• (NEE)/.53
• (VZ)/1.09
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Jan. is estimated to rise to 49.8 from 49.4 in Dec.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI for Jan. is estimated to fall to 56.5 from 56.8 in Dec.
• The S&P Global US Composite PMI for Jan. is estimated to rise to 55.6 from 55.4 in Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Jan. is estimated at 73.2 versus 73.2 in Dec.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations for Jan. is estimated to fall to a +3.2% gain versus a +3.3% gain in Dec. 
• Existing Home Sales for Dec. is estimated to rise to 4.2M versus 4.15M in Nov.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Bloomberg US Economic Survey for Jan., weekly US Baker Hughes Oil rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning report, (SBH) annual meeting and the (ENR) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST