Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Escalating US Trade Tensions, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Technical Selling, Homebuilding/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.7 +7.9%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.48 -1.0%.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 68.3 -4.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.1 -.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.8 +4.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.4 +8.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 -4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .91 +4.6%

• NYSE Arms .86 -43.8%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$145.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.0 +.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 284.7 +.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 169 +3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.2 +2.7%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 145.5 +2.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.7 +4.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 160.0 -.08%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 85.4 +.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.9 +.06%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.75 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 5.0 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 137.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 607.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 46.0 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 +.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.20 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 53.8 euros/megawatt-hour +1.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 16.8 +7.4 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 1.6 +1.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.5 +7.0 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(181 of 500 reporting) +7.8% -4.7 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.54 -.20:  Growth Rate +15.9% +.5 percentage point, P/E 21.8 -.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.11% -9.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +17.2% -9.3 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 402.67 +2.47: Growth Rate +30.2% +2.2 percentage points, P/E 33.3 -.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.80 -1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve 28.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.89% +62.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.0% -2.3 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.52% -31.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.85% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 +7.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 65.4% (+4.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 44.6%(-2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +350 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +8 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -2.6% 2) Airlines -2.2% 3) Alt Energy -2.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GOOS, ARLP, GM, HONE, LC, HUBB, MANH, MUR, BNS, DB, VRT, HAE, VC, DECK, BEP, RRX, STLA, DOW, SUPN, CNI, WHR, TSSI, BLK, CP, FWRD, CM, TITN, AHCO, PDD, BEN, FTRE, SPRY, FDX, BBIO, MGA, BOOT, PKX, TTEK, PII and NSSC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ZI 2) AVIR 3) SABR 4) EQNR 5) CMCSA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NSSC 2) OMI 3) WBA 4) CROX 5) GM
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) XLE 3) XLC 4) SOXX 5) FDN

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.8% 2) Computer Services +1.0% 3) Healthcare Providers +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TGI, ZSPC, SSYS, KC, GDS, IDXX, FTAI, PTCT, MMYT, TPX, OKLO, TEM, VRNA, HIMS, SILV, DRD, ENPH, TLN, PAAS, EAT, AGI and ABBV
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CHGG 2) SYF 3) AGI 4) ETHR 5) APTV

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GHRS 2) IDXX 3) SSYS 4) TPX 5) TXRP
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) ITB 2) XLF 3) XLV 4) IYZ 5) VOX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ADM)/1.14
• (BERY)/.98
• (CNH)/.19
• (CMI)/4.69
• (ENR)/.65
• (EL)/.32
• (RACE)/1.95
• (FOXA)/.68
• (IT)/3.25
• (HUBB)/4.02
• (J)/1.27
• (MRK)/1.61
• (PYPL)/1.12
• (PEP)/1.94
• (PFE)/.47
• (REGN)/11.36
• (SPOT)/1.99
• (TDG)/7.67
• (UBS)/.29

After the Close: 

• (AMD)/1.08
• (GOOG)/2.13
• (DOX)/1.64
• (AMGN)/5.08
• (CSL)/4.42
• (CMG)/.24
• (CRUS)/2.04
• (COLM)/1.89
• (EA)/3.06
• (FICO)/6.09
• (HRB)/-1.65
• (IEX)/2.02
• (JNPR)/.57
• (KLIC)/.28
• (MTCH)/.55
• (MAT)//.20
• (MOD)/.79
• (MDLZ)/.66
• (OI)/-.08
• (PRU)/3.24
• (SPG)/3.42
• (SNAP)/-.04
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for Dec. is estimated to fall to 8000K versus 8098K in Nov.
• Factory Orders for Dec. is estimated to fall -.7%  versus a -.4% decline in Nov.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for Dec. 
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Jefferson speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, US weekly retail sales reports, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, weekly API weekly crude oil stock report, Evercore ISI Travel/Transport Conference, (DLB) annual meeting, (IBM) investor day, (TXN) business update call, (BEN) annual meeting, (EMR) annual meeting and the Guggenheim SMID Cap Biotech Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +44.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.1 +1.0
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 30.9% of Issues Advancing, 67.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .95 -37.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$186.8M
  
• 20 New 52-Week Highs, 92 New Lows
• 53.5% (-3.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.6 -11.3
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.6 -4.0%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 255.2 -.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,054.8 -.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 44.0 (FEAR) -3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 15.2 -8.0%
  
• Vix 18.1 +10.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .91 +4.6%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• USAID essentially functions as one of many money laundering machines for Democrats in DC. Here’s how it works: • Activists create obscure NGO • Dems fund it lavishly • NGO does bare minimum (or actively hurts the United States) • Activists get paid and donate to Dems Not only that but USAID helped spread their gender ideology nonsense and brought millions of illegals into our country. That’s why Democrats are freaking out about the possibility that USAID’s being shut down by President Trump. It needs to be done. True.
• Why did USAID pay $20 million to hit piece journalists to dig up dirt on Rudy Giuliani and use that dirt as the basis to impeach the sitting US President in 2019? Great question!
• BREAKING: USAID Senior Officials put on Leave after Physically Trying to stop DOGE from accessing Agency Systems. Two USAID officials, John Voorhees and his deputy, were put on leave late Saturday night after refusing to allow DOGE members access to USAID systems. The DOGE members threatened to physically call the police after being refused entry. They were trying to access the security and personnel files. USAID is a criminal organization. Time for it to die.
• Ultimately, I doubt the cartels can be defeated without US Special Operations. 
• MARC ANDREESSEN: NGOs ARE THE GOVERNMENT’S HITMEN .“The government outsources to these NGOs the things that it's not legally allowed to do, like violation of First Amendment rights. So, if you want to censor American citizens, what you do is you fund an outside organization. A lot of this traces into the White House.” 100%!. (video)

• @GenFlynn
  

• FINAL WARNING: THIS IS MY FINAL WARNING AS IT RELATES TO CONFIRMATIONS OF @realDonaldTrump‘s NOMINEES. IF THERE ARE PEOPLE INSIDE OF THE ODNI, THE CIA, OR THE FBI THAT ARE WORKING TO SUBVERT THE NOMINATIONS OF @TulsiGabbard , @Kash_Patel or @RobertKennedyJr , I AM WRITING TO LET YOU KNOW, YOU BETTER STOP NOW AND THINK BEFORE YOU GO ANY FURTHER. THERE ARE SO MANY PEOPLE THAT ARE READY TO BE WHISTLEBLOWERS AND THERE IS SO MUCH REPORTING CURRENTLY FLOWING OUT (NOT CLASSIFIED LEAKS!), BUT LEAKS OF SUBVERSIVE AND TREASONOUS BEHAVIOR. THIS HAS TO END AND TRUST IF IT DOESNT, YOU WILL BE CAUGHT AND YOU WILL BE PROSECUTED TO THE FULLEST EXTENT OF THE LAW. 
• I can show you a few places to look inside the U.S. intelligence community. (pic)

• @WarClandestine

• Now that Trump is in office and the charade is over, Zelensky admits he did not receive over $100 billion of our tax dollars. He says he “does not know where all the money is”. Meaning Ukraine was a massive money laundering operation, and the Biden regime never actually cared about defending Ukraine or preserving democracy. All of the pro-Ukraine propaganda was a psyop to garner American support, so the People would willingly send our tax dollars to “defend democracy”, and it worked on millions.
• Trump speaks on the USAID! He says it’s run “by a bunch of radical lunatics”, and that we are “getting them out”. Trump is digging in the exact area the Deep State do not want him to dig. The USAID holds the paper trail that proves their criminality! (video)
• Observe the timeline: -Trump begins purge at USAID -Trump fires USAID officials after resisting DOGE from accessing agency systems -Elon unleashes barrage of posts about USAID corruption after DOGE gains access to said systems -Zelensky claims $100+ BILLION is missing Sounds like Elon and Trump found something when auditing the paper trail. They found that the money is not going where it’s supposed to be going, and Zelensky knows the jig is up. The USAID claims they sent $30+ Billion in direct budget support, and $23+ Billion in humanitarian aid to Ukraine since 2022, amongst a plethora of other projects and contracts in Ukraine. Where is all the money? TREASON!
• BREAKING NEWS! Memo reveales the offshore US-funded biolab network is ALREADY under investigation via the DoD Inspector General, and has been since at least May, 2024! Biden’s Metabiota is under the microscope in relation to the origins of C19! MUST READ! (pic)

• @WallStreetApes

• BREAKING: The “Conspiracy theorists” were right. Elon Musk just CONFIRMED USAID used US taxpayer money to fund COVID 19 development. This also CONFIRMS why Joe Biden chose the year 2014 for the Anthony Fauci pardon, that’s when Barack Obama and Fauci took over the Ukraine Biolabs and started working on these bio weapons. This is Crimes Against Humanity and that can’t be pardoned. 2014 was the year The CIA took over the Ukraine Government... (video)
  
• Big things happened today - Rand Paul said to Abolish USAID and end all foreign aid - Donald Trump ended the USAID Website and X account - Elon Musk confirmed less than 10% of foreign aid actually goes to people in need Billionaire Dan Pena says that number is closer to 0% Billionaire Dan Pena reveals that all the money pledged to impoverished countries “gets stolen” He says the wealthiest countries get together every year, “They pledge between $100-$500 million. How much money has been given (to those in need)? $0.” “We could solve poverty in the entire world with the stroke of a pen. And you know why they don't do that in Africa, Ethiopia, wherever? Because of corruption”. (video)
  

• @StillGray
  

• Mike Benz: USAID is not about aid. It’s about coordinating clandestine operations through foreign left-wing NGOs. With a $50 billion budget, it even surpasses the budgets of the CIA and State Department combined. (video)
• Completely on brand for New York City. You’d never see anything like this in Dubai. (video)

• @BehizyTweets

• WATCH: Tens of thousands of Brits packed the streets of London, blasting & dancing to YMCA in honor of President Trump. Many wore bright red MEGA hats: "Make England Great Again." Trump really made YMCA the world's anthem for freedom. (video)

• @bennyjohnson
  

• BREAKING: Panama's President has ended the country's Panama Canal deal with China, immediately following a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho
  

• “Where are all the insects?” “What is going on - there is something definitely happening”. Farmers are noticing a steep decline in insects, bees & birds - The Farmers know. I was speaking with the Park Rangers at Rutland Nature Reserve - they said they have also noticed an obvious steep decline in the number of Birds & Insects they monitor in the last several years - they have no idea what’s causing it - I didn’t tell them. (video)
• When The CIA Director talks about blocking out The Sun & for the last few years now you have barely seen The Sun. You do the maths….. (video)
• “It’s happening in The United States & across Europe - attacking Farmers”. “Maybe there’s a bigger Anti-Human Agenda at work”. “Clearly there’s an effort to reduce the Human Population”. (video)

• @LauraLoomer
  

• Ah. The helicopter pilot was a social aid to Biden and his degenerate White House, helping to “plan” his events. No wonder why they wanted to hide her identity. So yes, DEI was very much involved in this crash. Trump was right. (pic)
  

• @TonySeruga

• Just love how uneducated both Americans and Canadians truly are. Here are just some historic tariffs Canada hits America with. Milk: 270% Cheese: 245% Butter: 298% Chicken: 238% Sausages: 69.9% Barley seed: 57.8% Bovine/meat: 26.5% Cars: 25% HVAC: 45% Vacuums: 35% Cable boxes: 35% TVs: 45% Steel: 25% Aluminum: 45% Copper: 48%. Take a guess how much financial aide the U.S. sends Canada EVERY YEAR and how much military defense $$$$ we provide?
• Every year, well over 300,000 Americans DIE from fentanyl and we’ve had enough of it. Two smugglers were caught accidentally in Alberta, Canada this week with enough fentanyl to kill over 10 million people, and then there’s this fentanyl super lab in Vancouver BC busted five weeks ago only because of American law-enforcement. ENOUGH CANADA! Stop being twatwaffles and do the right thing!
  

• @officer_Lew

• BREAKING: Acting FBI Director Driscoll has acknowledged in a LEAKED internal memo that a significant portion of the FBI was involved in INVESTIGATING Trump and his supporters, stating, “We understand that this encompasses thousands of employees who took part in these investigations, including myself and Deputy Director Kissane.” (pic)
  

• @OcrazioCornPop

• BREAKING: Bishop Mariann Budde's Episcopal Migration Ministries (EMM) collected $53 million from Govt programs in 2023 for "Immigrant Resettlement". Now we know why she gave Trump the Multi-Cultural Marxist lecture - she warned him because money was on the line. The "Immigrant Resettlement" programs are much larger and more profitable than even Gavin Newsom's "Homeless Resettlement" programs. Has this program been deleted from Federal Govt spend yet?

• @MilaLovesJoe

• BREAKING: Its been revealed that Senator Lindsey Graham accepted money from GEORGE SOROS. Could this be the reason he is a “No” On Tulsi Gabbard and RFK? Trump won S. Carolina by 20 points, but Graham is obligated to vote however Soros commands. This guy is a TRAITOR.

• @RapidResponse47

• Fentanyl is now the number one killer of Americans ages 18-45. Its ingredients are produced in China. Mexico and Canada aren’t stopping its flow across our borders. Until they cooperate to stop the flow of poison into our country, they will all pay a tariff.

• @newstart_2024

• Nicole Shanahan: " I was wrong to ever trust these people. And many Democrats are opening up to this acceptance that they were wrong, they were misguided, they were lied to, and it's all this bait and switch and that's what the party has been and that's what, and nobody in their right mind can continue to support that." (video)

• @rawsalerts
  

• Los Angeles police, dressed in riot gear, are in a standoff as thousands of protesters march against ICE deportations. (video)
• #BREAKING: Emergency crews declared a level 2 hazmats situation after a massive fire has broken out at the Martinez refinery plant. (video)

• @itscarterhughes

• HOLY COW: The World Bank "MISPLACED" $41 BILLION in climate change funds and no public records detailing where the money is has been found by investigators in October.

• @NicHulscher
  

• COVID-19 gene therapy injections are neurotoxic. They have been shown to increase your risk of: 1. Ischemic stroke (+44%) 2. Hemorrhagic stroke (+50%) 3. Transient ischemic attack (+67%) 4. Myelitis (+165%) 5. Myasthenia gravis (+71%) 6. Alzheimer’s (+22.5%) 7. Cognitive impairment (+137.7%) 8. Depression (+68.3%) 9. Anxiety disorders (+43.9%) 10. Sleep disorders (+93.4%)

• @patrickbetdavid
  

• Who needs who more? Canada GDP $2.14 trillion. US GDP $27.36 Trillion. If Canada were a  state it would be #4 in GDP. Another terrible move by Trudeau. (video)

• @tedcruz

• Serious question: How does ANYONE—no matter how Left-wing—vote against informing parents that their child has been sexually assaulted at school? Utter insane. (pic)

• @stocktalkweekly

• Mexico exports to U.S. as a percentage of GDP: 35% Canada exports to U.S. as a percentage of GDP: 22% U.S. exports to Canada as a percentage of GDP: 1.5% U.S. exports to Mexico as a percentage of GDP: 1.2%. America is in charge.

• @MidwesternDoc
  

• Over the last few days the public has become aware @SenSanders took 1.5 million from Big Pharma and others like @SenWarren took over a million. This is incorrect. The Dems attacking RFK are actually getting 7 times what's being reported. This is the complete chart which covers each type of payment they received (e.g., from health insurance, hospitals, medical devices, pharmaceutical manufacturing, physician lobbyists). (table)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -2.5% to -1.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.5 +2.25 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 57.0 +1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.22%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 71.5 unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 +9.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -2.8%.
• S&P 500 futures -2.1%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -2.7%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open sharply lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.