Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +28.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.3 -1.1
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 48.2% of Issues Advancing, 49.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.26 -25.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$138.0M
  
• 92 New 52-Week Highs, 24 New Lows
• 57.1% (+1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 64.0 +2.6
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.5 +1.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 253.6 +.02%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,180.4 +.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 41.0 (FEAR) +2.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.9 +7.2%
  
• Vix 15.5 -1.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .78 -2.5%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.75 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 57.75 +1.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.2 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 71.0 +.8%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.5 -.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.44%.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.1%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Long-Term Rate Plunge, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.16 +.24%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.30 USD/Metric Tonne +.44%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 53.4 euros/megawatt-hour +2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.2 -1.1 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.0 -4.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.0 -.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(245 of 500 reporting) +12.0% +3.0 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 273.92 -.60:  Growth Rate +15.6% -.3 percentage point, P/E 22.0 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.91% -19.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +19.7% +2.5 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 401.91 -.83: Growth Rate +30.0% -.2 percentage point, P/E 34.1 +.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .74 +5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.76 +20.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve 23.25 basis points (2s/10s) -6.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +3.88% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.1% +2.5 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.52% unch.: CPI YoY +2.85% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 60.3% (-2.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 46.6%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +120 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -1 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +132 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth unch.
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail -1.8% 2) Airlines -1.6% 3) Agriculture -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NNE, ARCC, ARES, OMC, AMPL, PRU, CLMT, NXT, TROW, AFG, EQNR, EL, WGS, COLM, SNAP, CVRX, AMD, GOOG, MTCH, DAY, CSL, MKTX, GHRS, UBER, VRNS, IEX, NYT, CPRI, ALGT, RXO and FMC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FBTC 2) TKO 3) TPR 4) CFLT 5) BBAI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FMC 2) AMD 3) MTCH 4) CPRI 5) ALGT
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) XLK 3) XLY 4) PAVE 5) XLP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +4.0% 2) Biotech +2.7% 3) Computer Hardware +2.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AVNW, NGNE, CRTO, MRCY, DNA, MAT, ERJ, MWA, NOV, ICHR, ORIC, JCI, SKE, AMTM, AGX, GAMB, GFF, ARVN, GSK, VSH, SMCI, FI, SWTX, LB, KD, IESC, SLAB, ETNB, OKLO, CRUS, OPRA, CLS, SMR, TDOC, ASTS, OI, ARM, WDAY, SDGR, AMGN, EA, ASND, DOCN, ODFL, CGNT, HLNE, MIRM, CNK, MOD, ADTN, TECH, VOYA, ASND, PSIX, VYX, OSCR, AAON, XPO, KC, NVO, NEM, IBKR, RELY, TM, CDW, NVS, ELAN, CIEN, PSIX, COHR, SIMO, WU, PRTH, KGC, ESS, LITE, KMPR, PX, SITM and HAS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BCRX 2) JCI 3) CGC 4) BBAI 5) WGS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AVNW 2) SKY 3) CRUS 4) JCI 5) AMGN
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLB 3) ITB 4) IGV 5) KRE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AMG)/6.01
• (AGCO)/1.90
• (APD)/2.86
• (AB)/.86
• (MT)/.49
• (AZN)/1.04
• (BDX)/2.98
• (BWA)/.96
• (BMY)/1.46
• (GOOS)/1.09
• (COP)/1.83
• (LLY)/5.06
• (HSY)/2.37
• (HLT)/1.68
• (HON)/2.32
• (IDCC)/4.07
• (ITT)/1.47
• (LH)/3.39
• (BTU)/.42
• (RL)/4.53
• (RBLX)/-.45
• (TPR)/1.75
• (XPO)/.62
• (YUMC)/.29
• (ZBH)/2.30
  

After the Close: 

• (AFRM)/-.16
• (AMZN)/1.49
• (BYD)/1.79
• (NET)/.18
• (DOCS)/.34
• (ELF)/.76
• (EHC)/1.02
• (EXPE)/2.08
• (FTNT)/.61
• (ILMN)/.92
• (MCHP)/.28
• (MHK)/1.85
• (ONTO)/1.41
• (PINS)/.34
• (POST)/1.52
• (POWL)/2.61
• (SYNA)/.86
• (TTWO)/.58
• (WERN)/.21
• (FE)/.71
• (GT)/.30
• (ICE)/1.49
• (LEA)/2.58
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for January. 
  

8:30 am EST

• 4Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +2.2% gain in 3Q.
• 4Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +3.4% versus a +.8% gain in 3Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 214K versus 207K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1870K versus 1858K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kugler speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, Fed's Logan speaking, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, (ACN) annual meeting, (BZH) annual meeting and the (PSMT) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST