Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 6,016.6 -1.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 43,451.4 -2.9%

• NASDAQ 19,542.0 -2.0%

• Russell 2000 2,198.7 -3.7%

• NYSE FANG+ 13,369.7 -4.4%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 193.5 -5.9%

• Wilshire 5000 59,599.5 -2.0%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,074.6 -2.7%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,892.9 -1.1%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 906.6 -.3%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 240.9 -3.5%
  

• NYSE Technology 5,782.8 -2.5%

• Transports 16,034.9 -2.2%

• Utilities 1,022.5 +.92%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 133.39 +2.4%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 44.8 +1.6%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 223.18 +1.8%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 117.37 +.35%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 542,411 +.22%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.3 +44.0%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 83 -491

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -27.0 +5.5%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 220,004 -4.5%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,788,275 +1.3%

• Total Put/Call .86 +19.4%

• OEX Put/Call .92 +5.4%

• ISE Sentiment 169.0 -29.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.08 -27.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 75.4 -1.4%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .82 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.39 -21.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 18.7 +23.2%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .71 +117.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 14.5 +21.6%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.2 +1.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.74 -2.5%

• Smart Money Flow Index 21,300.2 +2.3%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  91.5 +15.9

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.914 Trillion -.14%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$4.624 Million

• AAII % Bulls 29.2 +2.8%

• AAII % Bears 40.5 -14.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 43.0 (FEAR) -1.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 316.58 +1.6%

• Crude Oil 70.39/bbl. -1.3%

• Reformulated Gasoline 202.9 -3.5%

• Natural Gas 4.26 +17.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.2 euros/megawatt-hour -7.3%
  

• Heating Oil 243.9 -.37% 
• Newcastle Coal 106.2 (1,000/metric ton) -.05%
  

• Gold 2,936.4 +2.1%
• Silver 32.6 +1.9%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 468.2 +2.5%

• Copper 453.9 -4.9%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 358.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.40 USD/Metric Tonne +2.4%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 10,475.0 USD/metric tonne -2.1% 

• CME Lumber  619.50 +2.6%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,530.7 +.9%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 298.5 USD/Short Ton +1.2%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +2.34% unch.

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.0% -.7 percentage point

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.16 -14.6%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 358.0 +54.0%
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(429 of 500 reporting) +10.8% +.4 percentage point

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.30 +.31:  Growth Rate +16.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 22.2 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.86% +5.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 406.46 +1.93: Growth Rate +31.4% unch., P/E 33.9 -.7
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.8 -7.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.3 +6.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.1 -4.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 2.5%(-.5 percentage point) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 97.5%(+.5 percentage point) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 3/19
  

• US Dollar Index 106.6 -.41%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,752.0 +.18%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 96,036.0 -.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.4 -2.3%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 22.25 unch.
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.41% -6.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.736 Trillion -.47%
  
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $3.086 Billion -3.5%
• Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $.188 Billion -3.6%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.0 -.2%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 207.3 -.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 109.0 unch.
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.6 -3.5%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.6 -.2%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 167.7 +.5%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 87.4 -.3%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.2 -5.0%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.23 +.55%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 116.79 +.31%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +4.1% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.5% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.5% unch.
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.2% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.82% +1.0 basis point
  
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.11% +13.0 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -.75 basis point -.25 basis point
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.25 -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .25 +1.0 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 48.1 +3.2%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 177.0 -1.0% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 162.0 -18.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 56.1 -.3%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 134.7 -1.8%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 155.3 +2.8%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 131.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 593.0 -9.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .46 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +3.9% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,281.3B +1.8%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 216,000 -.46%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.1 -5.0%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.15% +22.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 214,900 -6.6%

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.8% +50.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -1.0% +73.0 percentage points
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross $87.5M n/a

• Nationwide Gas $3.16/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 941.0 +18.8%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,794.8/40 ft Box -9.7%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,318.7 -4.9%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 +7.7%
  
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 56.2 -4.8%

• Rail Freight Carloads 271,524 -4.4%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,465,900 +14.2%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -1.1%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -3.2%

Leading Sectors

• Disk Drives +7.8%

• Computer Hardware +6.7%
• Pharma +2.7%
  

• Video Gaming +2.2%
  

• Steel +1.9%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Gold & Silver -4.3%
  

• Construction -4.9%
  

• Education -4.9%

• Cyber Security -5.2%
  

• Retail -5.2%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (42)

• CELH, PONY, SEI, VICR, TME, WKC, INOD, VKTX, ZLAB, MELI, AMN, IRTC, HSAI, AXSM, ATRO, APLD, RYI, ELF, NVO, PDD, BABA, BILI, BEKE, XPEV, LI, CWAN, PRMB, ONC, FNF, HSY, LBRT, VRNA, OLED, EXEL, KVUE, KC, BF/B and CSTM

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (62)

• FVRR, ARHS, LAND, GMED, CCJ, TFII, XPO, FDX, VTLE, CTO, SG, FSLR, DRS, BLDR, EPAM, DUOL, ENVX, RNG, SEM, DAVA, BROS, KVYO, LAUR, TLN, UNH, GAMB, OSW, CVNA, FRPT, EGO, SM, SAIA, NRDS, ODFL, HRI, TEM, CAVA, EXPI, GEV, RELY, VRT, WSC, BCC, TDOC, GH, ABR, MNSO, CENX, NBIS, DBX, GKOS, WEAV, CARG, XYZ, SFM, NU, AKAM, HIMS and GLOB

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, China Manufactured Pandemic Fears, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Consumer Discretionary/Commodity Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 -.3%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.2 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.8 -7.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.3 -10.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.1 -1.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(429 of 500 reporting) +10.8% +.3 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.30 +.06:  Growth Rate +16.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.86% -2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 406.46 +.23: Growth Rate +31.4% unch., P/E 33.5 -.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .82 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.39 -13.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 22.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.34% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.0% +.4 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.82% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 -3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 67.0% (-10.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 47.7%(+3.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -641 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -8 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -108 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/financial/industrial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DPZ)/4.91
• (FDP)/.37
• (KBR)/.82
• (OC)/2.91
  

After the Close: 

• (BYON)/-.73
• (BWXT)/.81
• (CHGG)/.17
• (CLF)/-.61
• (FANG)/3.35
• (HIMS)/.11
• (MYGN)/.03
• (PSA)/4.24
• (SBAC)/3.39
• (TREX)/.04
• (ZD)/2.63
• (ZM)/1.30
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Jan.
  

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Feb.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, 2Y T-Note auction, JPMorgan Leveraged Finance Conference, BMO Metals/Mining/Critical Minerals Conference, Oppenheimer Emerging Growth Conference and the (CYBR) investor day could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.75 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 44.25 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 109.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 -.2%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 78.0 +.2%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.1 +.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.05%.

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and tech shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tariff Concerns, Yen Strength, Consumer Discretionary/Financial Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 +.4%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.06%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.5 euros/megawatt-hour -1.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.2 -.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.4 +.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.3 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(420 of 500 reporting) +10.5% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.24 +.10:  Growth Rate +16.1% unch., P/E 22.2 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.88% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 406.23 +.30: Growth Rate +31.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.8 -.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .85 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.52 -13.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 23.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.34% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.6% +.7 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.82% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 77.6% (-9.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 53.4%(-5.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -98 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +45 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +83 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/financial/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long