Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +38.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.6 unch.
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 50.9% of Issues Advancing, 47.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.74 +87.1%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$55.6M
  
• 44 New 52-Week Highs, 77 New Lows
• 48.4% (-1.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.4 -2.9

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.6 -3.8%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 236.1 -1.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,570.3 -1.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 22.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -8.0
• 1-Day Vix 13.9 -7.7%
  
• Vix 20.0 +5.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .95 -4.0%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk   

• JUST IN: Anti-Trump Judge Hit With Articles Of Impeachment. It’s time to fire fake judges who place political activism above the law!
• EXCLUSIVE: @GrossmanHannah and I have obtained logs from the NSA’s secret transgender sex chatroom, in which NSA, CIA, and DIA employees discuss genital castration, artificial vaginas, piss fetishes, sex polycules, and gangbangs—all on government time. This is insane. Well … at least we know what they did last week.

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: House Speaker Mike Johnson just said that Elon Musk is "inside" the federal agencies with new algorithms crawling through spending transactions. Tech bros are going to save our budget. JOHNSON: “Elon has cracked the code. He is now inside the agencies, he's created these algorithms that are constantly crawling through the data and as he told me in his office, the data doesn't lie." “Elon is in the middle. He is in the belly of the beast.” (video)

• @EndWokeness

• NEW Harvard-Harris Poll:  Trump approval: 52% (+9)  Trump disapproval: 43%. 58% say he is doing better than Biden. 81% support deporting criminal aliens. 76% support eliminating fraud, waste. 76% support closing the U.S. border. 70% support merit-based hiring. 61% support reciprocal tariffs. 60% think DOGE is helping.
• India - 1 day to count 640M votes. Germany - 8 hours to count 50M votes. Argentina - 6 hours to count 27M votes. California - 4 weeks to count 16M votes.
• German exit polls suggest that right-wing parties have been won a majority of the German people, with AFD in 2nd place. Sounds good, right? Wrong. All major parties conspired to block AFD. That means they cannot join a coalition. Germany just voted for change… Instead, they will get more of the same.
  

• @BehizyTweets

• BREAKING: A whistleblower just revealed that the FBI is deleting massive amounts of evidence so Kash Patel & Dan Bongino can't use it. "The FBI is working day and night to destroy files on these servers... I'm sure there's info about Epstein and subversion against Americans." This needs to be stopped ASAP. The agents doing this must be charged with treason. (video)

• @Artemisfornow

• GERMANY - The Globalists win again. New chancellor Friedrich Merz is their perfect pick. Ex Chairman of Blackrock GermanyDedicated to deeper EU integration member of the WEF’s Board of Trustees regular atendee WEF in Davos attended Bilderberg Group meetings supported Covid vaccine passports Wanted restrictions on unvaccinated advocated for digital ID in Germany supported EU-wide asylum policies supports carbon trading markets The penetration of the cabinets continues. You cannot help the people if the people will not help themselves. Good luck Germany.

• @WallStreetApes

• The truth keeps coming out. Illegals in Arizona have been receiving US social security cards. Immigration attorney in Florence, Arizona says “One our clients got detained by ICE this morning — HE HAD HIS SOCIAL SECURITY CARD”. Just imagine how many illegals voted in Arizona. (video)

• @ThomasSowell

• Update on the $500B Apple investment. The company plans to hire 20,000 American workers. New Houston AI Server Factory. New Detroit Manufacturing Academy. Doubling R&D Fund to $10B. This is the largest ever capital spend in the US in company history. (video)

• @VigilantFox

• DISTURBING: Yale researchers have found that some COVID jab recipients show signs of a depleted immune system and continue producing spike proteins YEARS after the shot. Dr. Robert Malone was right about everything. What was once called a “conspiracy theory” is now backed by science: vaccine spike proteins can linger in the body for years, potentially causing chronic inflammation and long-term health problems. (video)

• @P_McCulloughMD

• BREAKING: Insurance Data Reveals U.S. Mortality Crisis Persists—Mass COVID-19 "Vaccination" Likely to Blame. Sharp rises in young cardiac, neurological, and cancer-related deaths persist in the wake of the mass COVID-19 mRNA injection campaign. Population mortality should go down after a pandemic--not up. Implies the mass vaccination campaign has backfired and is contributing to mortality from multiple causes.

• @amuse

• UKRAINE: Two years ago Zelensky was singing a very different tune agreeing to repay the US for aid. Now he's pretending that he only got half of the promised aid and that it was a grant, not a debt to be repaid. Zelensky isn't a honest partner. (video)

• @megynkelly

• This was the nation’s top drug regulator last month. Immediately hired by
  @ScottGottliebMD. DISGUSTING and why we need RFKJ. (pic)
• SAME. GO F YOURSELVES EAGLES. My husband is a fan so I got onboard but F this BS.

• @RealJamesWoods

• Speaking of which, buried in the foreign aid reports last year, I discovered something - we give foreign aid to CHINA. So the US government is so dumb, it is literally borrowing money from China, to give it back to China, while paying interest on it. This takes the cake. If this doesn’t make it clear to the Democrat critics of DOGE, then convincing them is fruitless and a waste of time. Let’s ignore these grifters and get the job done.

• @WesternLensman

• Hakeem Jeffries confronted with BRUTAL Democrat poll numbers — — after Hakeem attempts to spin with lies about Medicare and Social Security, gets nuked by Jake Tapper of all people: TAPPER: "Congressional Democrats polling is at about 20%. So, that's an issue for you." (video)

• @TimRunsHisMouth

• A federal employee went on CNN to cry that she only had 48 hours to reply to Elon/ DOGE’s email…Sooo… she had time to get herself booked on CNN and go on TV, but not reply to an email about her actual job…. Got it. (video)

• @dr_ericberg

• Egg prices are NOT an accident. Bird flu is back in the headlines. But what’s actually happening? Here’s the simplest way to understand it: They’re using the COVID playbook again. This time, it’s about controlling your food. Let me explain.

• @BurrikksM

• Susan Collins votes Left 80% of the time. She's got to go. And who would like to see Nancy Mace take Graham's seat? (pic)

• @MDBreathe

• Did you know the mRNA shots being given to babies are still under EUA status? Do you think pediatricians are telling parents there are over 3400 peer-reviewed published studies documenting severe adverse reactions from these shots?

• @ShadowofEzra

• RFK Jr.'s former running mate, Nicole Ann Shanahan, records a video showing geoengineering in the sky above her. She describes seeing planes flying overhead and states that the trails left behind were too thick to be contrails. She says this needs to end immediately. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.0 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 46.0 +1.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.7 USD/Metric Tonne -1.6%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.6 -1.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.2 -1.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.31%.

• S&P 500 futures +.21%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by consumer and tech shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.9 -1.7%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.10 -37.7%.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 77.7 +.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 175.5 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.9 +.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.9 +.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 150.0 -10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .97 +9.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.17 unch.
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$2.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.2 -.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 303.2 +.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 170.0 +8

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.6 +.9%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 134.9 +.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 114.0 basis points +5.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.9 -.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 155.2 +.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 86.8 -.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.23 +.17%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.0 basis points -1.5 basis points

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -3.0 basis point -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 0.0 +.5 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 131.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 592.0 -2.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 47.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 +.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.1 euros/megawatt-hour -.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.5 +2.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.2 -2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.4 +.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(431 of 500 reporting) +11.8% +1.0 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.54 +.24:  Growth Rate +16.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.9 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.79% -7.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 406.89 +.43: Growth Rate +31.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.5 -1.0
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 -17.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.51 +12.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 23.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.34% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.5% +.5 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.82% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 73.5% (+5.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 49.0%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -621 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -103 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -29 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some 
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Social Media -2.6% 2) Video Gaming -1.6% 3) Road & Rail -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AMPL, VICR, CCRN, TFII, CRDO, OPRA, NTES, HRI, ANET, STRL, ATAT, FPI, EH, SEI, BKSY, CEG, CORZ, JD, DOCN, WEAV, RDW, RIVN, XPOF, PLTR, NBIS, VNET, FUTU, PDD, HSAI, ECG, BABA, TME, BILI, GDS, VKTX, SMMT and PONY

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LW 2) VRNA 3) ZM 4) KVUE 5) IRM

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PLTR 2) KOS 3) GTE 4) LCID 5) SMMT

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) SMH 3) KRE 4) XLI 5) ARKK

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Insurance +2.0% 2) Pharma +1.3% 3) Gold & Silver +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GRAL, GOOS,  FRPT, HCC, CENX, ZETA, SUI, PRCT, TEM, RGA, SG, AB, PBI, RVLV, NKE, ZIM, EGO, OSCR, SHAK, WEN, PRTH, EAT, EQH, YY, HIMS, KRNT, IART, CRL, GLOB, KALV, ALHC, LMND, FVRR, BEAM, SPNT, MGPI, LIVN, JXN, ARHS, MMYT, TEO, NCLH, FND, HMY, NICE, FOUR, WBD, PRKS, GFI, TNET, NU, WST, GRND and CSGS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BAX 2)RILY 3) MOMO 4) GFI 5) PRMW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NKE 2) BRK/A 3) LINC 4) STLD 5) GH

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLU 2) XLP 3) FDN 4) PPH 5) IDU

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AMT)/2.36
• (AWI)/1.38
• (BMO)/1.68
• (CRI)/1.92
• (ELAN)/.15
• (HD)/3.04
• (IGT)/.18
• (ITRI)/1.06
• (LGIH)/2.18
• (PLNT)/.62
• (SEE)/.67
  

After the Close: 

• (AMC)/-.18
• (AXON)/1.40
• (CZR)/-.13
• (CAVA)/.07
• (CPNG)/.01
• (EXLS)/.41
• (FSLR)/4.75
• (CART)/.38
• (INTU)/2.57
• (JACK)/1.69
• (SPXC)/1.51
• (WDAY)/1.78
• (ZIP)/-.11
• (DDS)/9.75
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity for Feb.
  

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Dec.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Dec. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.41% gain in Nov.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Feb. is estimated to fall to 102.5 versus 104.1 in Jan.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to -2 versus -4 in Jan.
• Dallas Fed Services Activity for Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, 5Y T-Note auction, M2 Money Supply MoM for Jan., the API weekly crude oil stock report, weekly US retail sales reports, (AAPL) annual meeting, (PYPL) investor day, Scotiabank Energy Conference, BofA Ag/Materials conference, Wolfe Research Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, BMO Metals/Mining/Critical Minerals Conference, Barclays Communications/Content Symposium and the Oppenheimer Emerging Growth Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST