Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +32.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.2 +.6
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 50.0% of Issues Advancing, 46.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .87 -16.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$15.9M
  
• 24 New 52-Week Highs, 81 New Lows
• 48.9% (-.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.9 +.1

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.7 +.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 240.1 +.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,536.0 -.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 22.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 15.6 -23.8%
  
• Vix 19.0 -.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .67 -27.2%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 -1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 45.0 -1.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.0 +1.0%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.1 -.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.75%.

• S&P 500 futures -.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.1%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, Tariff Concerns, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Healthcare Provider/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 -.05%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.3 euros/megawatt-hour -6.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.5 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.9 +.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.5 +2.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(456 of 500 reporting) +12.0% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.70 +.03:  Growth Rate +16.3% unch., P/E 21.8 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.80% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 407.43 +.24: Growth Rate +31.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.4 +.8
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .54 -6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.57 +6.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 17.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.34% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 29.1% +.3 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.83% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 -2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 73.9% (-.3 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 53.6%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -107 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -131 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/utility/financial sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and then added them back
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -2.0% 2) Healthcare Providers -1.8% 3) Energy -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• OC, RVLV, VRSK, LMND, CBZ, SIBN, CNK, MFIC, RXST, HSIC, DY, RACE, SUPN, STLA, BKV, VNET, YOU, YY, DK, KEYS, FSS, KTB, PARR, SHOO, HRMY, COCO, CART, ZETA, UTHR, DAWN, APP, AAP, ODP, GO and FLYW

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) COMM 2) LCID 3) AAP 4) FBTC 5) VRNA

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) APP 2) LCID 3) MODV 4) GERN 5) AAP

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IAI 2) XLF 3) KRE 4) XLP 5) JETS

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +2.1% 2) Alt Energy +2.1% 3) Gambling +1.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ACMR, ZI, CEVA, MDGL, LNTH, AXON, BASE, INVX, NNE, JACK, SKYT, SMCI, EYE, INTU, SPXC, NRG, MASI, INOD, OKLO, FSLR, MXL, PRCT, ASTS, AAOI, LNW, VICR, VCYT, PDFS, DOCN, VRT, DLO, WDAY, AHCO, TRIN, ITRI, VST, BURL, EME, VITL, CPNG, GEV, HOOD, TEM, UTI, STRL, WK, DRVN, CVNA, ARQT, STAA, COHR, DASH, RYTM, KALV, FLUT, FCX, RIGL, U, SFM, MAN, CHRD, BOOT, SMMT, SGT, ANET, GM, BCO, FARO, SOFI, DSP, BWXT and BCO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NLY 2) GERN 3) DLO 4) RILY 5) ZI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ZI 2) ACMR 3) ASTE 4) HURN 5) SMCI

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) XLV 3) XLK 4) IDU 5) XLU

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BBWI)/2.04
• (CARS)/.56
• (HRL)/.38
• (SJM)/2.37
• (LTH)/.15
• (NCLH)/.11
• (PZZA)/.50 
• (PENN)/-.36
• (TGLS)/1.02
• (TD)/1.38
• (VITL)/.16]
• (WRBY)/.03
  

After the Close: 

• (ADSK)/2.14
• (DELL)/2.52
• (DUOL)/.48 
• (EIX)/1.09
• (HPQ)/.75
• (MTZ)/1.25
• (MNST)/.40
• (MOS)/.57
• (NTAP)/1.91
• (RDFN)/-.24
• (SOUN)/-.10
• (TLN)/.60
• (TDW)/.93
• (AES)/.35
• (DLTR)/2.20
• (EOG)/2.58
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• 4Q GDP revisions.
• Durable Goods Orders for Jan. is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a -2.2% decline in Dec.
• Durables Ex Transports for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 221K versus 219K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1871K versus 1869K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Jan. is estimated to fall -.9% versus a -5.5% decline in Dec.

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for Feb. is estimated to rise to -4 versus -5 in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Harker speaking, Fed's Hammack speaking, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Citi Medtech/Life Sciences Access Day, BofA Animal Health Summit and the Susquehanna Tech Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST