Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +1.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Pharma +4.8% 2) Oil Service +4.6% 3) Energy +3.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• QURE, GPCR, LLY, MGNI, CAR, CAPR, GJT, MTSR, FIS, BMI, VIST, DLTR, WHD, CLPT, RTO, OZK, SMMT, AMX, JHX, TIGO, PR, PBR, MTDR, IBN, HRTG, KRUS, HDB, DAN, FNB, SMFG, LOVE, PUK, STT, JBHT, DHI and HBAN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HTZ 2) UNH 3) HBAN 4) QURE 5) CSX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HTZ 2) LLY 3) BMI 4) VNOM 5) GTE

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLK 3) XLU 4) XLB 5) XLV

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BOH)/.89
• (CMA)/1.16
  

After the Close: 

• (AZZ)/.98
• (CALX)/.13
• (MEDP)/3.07
• (WRB)/.98
• (WAL)/1.78
• (WTFC)/2.49
• (ZION)/1.19
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for March is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.3% decline in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The IMF meetings, weekly US retail sales reports, (ADBE) general meeting, (FSS) annual meeting and the (CHTR) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.4 -4.7
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 76.6% of Issues Advancing, 21.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.0 -34.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$81.2M
  
• 12 New 52-Week Highs, 30 New Lows
• 23.8% (+.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.2 +.6

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 53.1 +3.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 219.9 -1.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,368.2 -.38%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 19.0 (EXTREME FEAR) unch.
• 1-Day Vix 25.3 -27.7%
  
• Vix 31.7 -2.9%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.0 -2.9%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Disgusting. (pic)

• @LauraLoomer

• Now that President Trump is back in the White House, it’s time to clean out the Biden holdovers still running and funding the @NIH-funded torture labs. I spoke with
  @JustinRGoodman, the Senior VP of @WhiteCoatWaste about the sick taxpayer experiments still happening: addicting puppies to cocaine, overdosing mutilated “transgender” lab animals on GHB, and forcing THC edibles into pregnant monkeys. Over $20 BILLION of US Tax Payer funds go toward funding animal testing in labs here in the US, and abroad in places like China. These horrors were approved under Nora Volkow, a 40-year NIH bureaucrat who should’ve been fired on Day One of the Trump admin. Volkow is the Director of the National Institute on Drug Abuse at the
  @NIH. (video)

• @MarioNawful

• CFPB PIVOTS FROM PENALTIES TO PAYBACKS | CONSUMER WATCHDOG CHANGES COURSE. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's new strategy: focus on getting your money back instead of slapping companies with fines. CFPB Chief Legal Officer Mark Paoletta prioritizing "tangible harm" remedies over heavy-handed penalties.
• BREAKING: DOMESTIC VIOLENCE ALLEGATIONS AGAINST ABREGO GARCIA DETAILED IN WRITTEN STATEMENT…FROM HIS WIFE. In a handwritten 2021 statement, Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s wife accused him of repeated domestic violence, saying: “At this point, I am afraid to be close to him.” She claimed he punched and scratched her eye, threw her laptop, and ripped off her clothes during a separate outburst. Photos and videos allegedly document the abuse. She described two previous incidents in 2020: one where she says he struck her with a work boot, and another that left her with a black eye. 
• TRUMP HALTED ISRAELI STRIKE ON IRAN | OPTED FOR NUCLEAR DEAL TALKS INSTEAD. Trump Administration was divided as Israel proposed May attack on Iran's nuclear facilities that would've required U.S. military assistance. Vice President Vance, DNI Gabbard, and Defense Secretary Hegseth expressed doubts about the plan while Netanyahu pushed hard for approval. Trump told Netanyahu during White House visit: no American support while negotiations with Tehran continue.
• BRETT BAIER: TRUMP DOJ MOVES TO STRIP HARVARD’S TAX-EXEMPT STATUS. “The Trump Justice Department and the administration has asked the Internal Revenue Service to revoke Harvard University's tax-exempt status. This comes after President Trump suggested that move on Truth Social earlier this week, that Harvard should lose its tax-exempt status.” (video)
• NISSAN GOES ALL-IN ON AMERICAN FACTORIES TO DODGE TRUMP'S TARIFF HAMMER. Tariffs got teeth—and Nissan’s biting back. With Trump’s 25% auto import penalties in full swing, Nissan’s new Americas boss Christian Meunier is flipping the switch on full-throttle U.S. production. The Smyrna, Tennessee mega-plant (capacity: 640K cars/year) is gearing up to run at max to avoid pricey imports from Japan and Mexico. 
• MOTHER OF MURDERED MARYLAND WOMAN: "WHY THE SPECIAL TREATMENT FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS?" Patty Morin, the mother of Rachel Morin—brutally murdered by an illegal immigrant—is heartbroken and stunned. She says her senator barely acknowledged her daughter’s death, yet used taxpayer money to fly to El Salvador to advocate for someone who isn’t even an American citizen. Rachel left behind five children and a grandchild who will never know her. Patty’s question is simple—and devastating: “Why does that person have more rights than my daughter, or my grandchildren?” (video)

• @zerohedge 

• Texas Track Meet Killer's Family To Tap $400k Support Fund For New Home.
• To Fly, You'll Soon Need A REAL ID: What To Know.
• "The Nuclear Option": Here's What Will Happen When Trump Orders Delisting Of Chinese Stocks.
• *TRUMP: BIG PROGRESS MADE WITH JAPANESE DELEGATION.
• "The Autism Epidemic Is Running Rampant" - RFK Jr Addresses Latest CDC Report Showing 1-In-20 Boys Diagnosed.
• Gold Soars To New Record High; Stocks & Bond Yields Tumble As Powell Dismisses Fed Put.

• @JackPosobiec

• MARYLAND MAN HOAX, WIFE HAS RESTRAINING ORDERS ON HIM. SHE DOESNT WANT HIM HOME, SHE JUST WANTS GOFUNDME DONATIONS. (video)

• @JimFergusonUK

• DR PHIL ASKED TRUMP THE QUESTION THAT TERRIFIES THE ESTABLISHMENT. “How bad is Chinese infiltration of America?” Trump didn’t hesitate. “WORSE THAN ANYONE KNOWS.”

• @DC_Draino 

• A massive transformer was seized by Trump’s feds in 2019 and they may have discovered a secret backdoor switch that could turn it off remotely. The transformer was made by China. Trump issued an EO to stop these CCP transformers, Biden rescinded it his 1st day. Now we have almost 492 CCP transformers that threaten our energy grid and thus our national security. China owned the Bidens and now we are at risk. (video)

• @Songpinganq

• Now, tens of thousands Chinese people are becoming homeless. ——Because they are Blacklisted by Social Credit System. Once you are blacklisted, immediately authorities freeze your bank account and Digital wallet WeChat, which makes it hard for you to find a job. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.75 -.75 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 69.0 +2.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.01%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.95 -.23%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 52.5 +2.0%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.29% +2.0 basis points
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.7 -3.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.12%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.34%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.48%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on US/China Trade War Escalation, Fed Chairman Powell's Hawkish Commentary, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 31.0 +2.8%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .99 +10.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 53.2 -5.0% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.96 +.69%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 181.72 +.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.38 +.54%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 40.8 +1.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 118.0 unch.

• Total Put/Call .95 -5.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.13 -19.3%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$314.8M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.2 +1.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 516.6 -.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 304.0 +4.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.5 +.07%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 185.0 -.13%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 119.0 basis points +1.0 basis point

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.75 +1.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 210.3 +1.6%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 110.2 -2.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.46 -.2%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.0 basis points -.5 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -4.0 basis points unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.0 +2.5 basis points
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 157.0 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 647.0 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 72.0 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.83 +.22% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.29% -5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.3 euros/megawatt-hour +2.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -19.5 -.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 1.3 -.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.2 +6.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(43 of 500 reporting) +6.5% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.60 -.44:  Growth Rate +12.6% -.2 percentage point, P/E 19.3 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.47% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.02 -.19: Growth Rate +20.9% unch., P/E 27.2 -.8
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.50 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .75 +2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 49.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.2% +.2 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.1% +3.1 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.54% unch.: CPI YoY +2.38% -4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.05 -4.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 -2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 61.2% (-1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 51.1%(+4.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +70 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -77 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -2.0%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -4.1% 2) I-Banks -1.6% 3) Software -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WEN, VSEC, TSM, SDGR, CALM, ZLAB, MDGL, QFIN, JD, REVG, PLTR, ASML, OMC, IPG, ALGM, GDS, GKOS, HOOD, AMD, JBHT, NVDA, HSAI, IBKR, ARWR, KC and CYD

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RIG 2) NVAX 3) MP 4) IAU 5) LYV

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) IBKR 2) NVDA 3) AMD 4) SOUN 5) GRRR

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XOP 2) KXI 3) XLP 4) XRT 5) XLF

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume