Sunday, April 20, 2025

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • @LauraLoomer 
  • @MarioNawfal
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @EYakoby
  • Hamas: “we will repeat the October 7 massacre time and again, 1M times if we need to, until we end the occupation.“ Journalist: “occupation of Gaza?” Hamas: “no, all of Israel.” (video)
  • @TheInsidePaper
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • People who think it’s normal to take 5 experimental vaccines for a virus you have to test to know you have, also think these skies are perfectly normal too. Truly insane. (video)
  • @WallStreetApes
  • California Democrats continue to shut down family farms, now expanding to more counties. “Now there's a fight going on in Point Reyes. They just shut down a dozen farms. They really doubled down on those farmers — They put a gag order on them so they couldn't even ask the community to stand up for them” “They can't even have cows or anything. They've got to move off the property. — Our local RCD even came up with money to upgrade the ranches if needed. And the environmental group said, no. They wanted to take the land over. And so they forced these farmers to sign an agreement that are pushing them all out.” “So we're going to lose half of our dairies in Marin county and a bunch of the beef ranches that provide local food.” (video)
  • RESTORE THE SMITH–MUNDT ACT. Scott Bessent “When I was on the other side of the wall, I never really liked the term fake news. Now that I am on the inside and I can see what they're reporting, I think the term fake news probably isn't strong enough. It's really not”. (video)
  • @DC_Draino 
  • I’ll be honest, I don’t think Covid-19 leaked from a Wuhan lab. I’m serious. I actually think it was intentionally unleashed. A carefully engineered bioweapon designed to cripple the booming American economy, facilitate orwellian medical tyranny, and provide cover for mass mail-in ballots that would help Democrats steal the 2020 election. And I’m not alone.
  • @amuse
  • @WarClandestine
  • @MikeZaccardi
  • @annvandersteel
  • @Kylenabecker 
  • @catturd2
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @TRHLofficial
  • @WesternLensman
  • @EndWokeness
  • @matt_vanswol
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @TexasRepublic71
  • @ValerieAnne1970
  • @bennyjohnson
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.5% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.75 -2.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 69.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.0 +.55% 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 +.1%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 52.6 -2.6%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.35% +3.0 bps
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.0 +.9%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures -.49%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.43%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Friday, April 18, 2025

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 5,282.7 +.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 39,142.2 -1.1%
  • NASDAQ 16,286.5 -.6%
  • Russell 2000 1,880.6 +2.7%
  • NYSE FANG+ 11,111.6 -1.4%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 149.5 -.8%
  • Wilshire 5000 50,114.4 +.5%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 3,441.5 -.6%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,736.0 +1.6%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 902.8 +3.2%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 219.6 -3.4%
  • NYSE Technology 4,685.4 -.11%
  • Transports 13,438.7 +.9%
  • Utilities 1,020.5 +3.9%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 126.3 +5.8%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 42.1 +4.0%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 211.61 -.14%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 121.62 +1.96%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 531,172 +1.1%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 5.6 -21.2%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 13 +267
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -15.5 +19.2%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 139,595 -16.8%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,991,545 +8.4%
  • Total Put/Call .91 -19.5%
  • OEX Put/Call .94 -14.0%
  • ISE Sentiment 113.0 unch.
  • NYSE Arms .80 -35.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.0 +9.5%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.47 +42.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .68 +2.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 29.7 -27.2%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.38 -55.0%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 40.2 -6.1%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.91 -12.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.11 -11.0%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 22,165.4 +9.3%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  35.2 -21.9
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.881 Trillion -1.8%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$26.336 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 25.4 -10.9%
  • AAII % Bears 56.9 -3.4%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 21.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +2.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 296.38 +4.0%
  • Crude Oil 64.68/bbl. +7.4%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 209.88 +6.7%
  • Natural Gas 3.25 -7.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.7 euros/megawatt-hour +7.1%
  • Heating Oil 215.2 +4.8% 
  • Newcastle Coal 99.1 (1,000/metric ton) unch.
  • Gold 3,326.9 +4.7%
  • Silver 32.5 +4.3%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 432.4 +1.3%
  • Copper 473.9 +7.9%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 359.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.2%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 9,725.0 USD/metric tonne -5.1%
  • CME Lumber  573.0 -.6%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,458.1 +1.4%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 317.5 USD/Short Ton +.3%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast -2.2% +70.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.9% +3.1 percentage points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.5 -18.6%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 432.2 -27.9%
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $150.0 Billion($980.39 Savings Per Taxpayer) +$10.0 Billion
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(59 of 500 reporting) +6.8% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.95 +n/a:  Growth Rate +12.3% +n/a, P/E 19.1 -n/a
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.45% -5.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +23.7% +n/a percentage point
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 416.88 +n/a: Growth Rate +20.6% +n/a, P/E 26.7 -n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.8 -6.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index .6 -10.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.8 +10.9 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 9.1%(-9.7 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 90.9%(+9.7 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 5/7
  • US Dollar Index 99.2 -.5%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,770.3 +.76%
  • Bitcoin/USD 84,435.0 +1.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 181.79 -.5%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.95 -.1%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 52.25 unch.
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.33% -16.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.680 Trillion -.01%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.781 Billion +18.3%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 53.9 -.9%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 311.0 -2.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 118.0 -6.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.0 -3.0%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.8 -7.6%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 197.4 -1.1%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 109.4 +8.2%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 35.2 -1.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.49 +1.6%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 118.3 +1.7%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.9% -10.0 basis points
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.4% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.0% +40.0 basis points
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.2% -70.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.54% -14.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.38% -11.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.21% -7.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +1.0 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 1.0 basis point +2.0 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.0 +1.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 +1.5 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 70.0 -4.0%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 283.0 -9.9
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 296.0 -17.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 77.4 -7.8%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 183.6 -8.8%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 208.2 -4.1%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 159.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 643.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .73 +3.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +3.9% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,393.5B +.8%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 220,750 -1.1%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% -10.0 basis points
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.2 +1.2%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.93% +23.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 267,500 -8.5%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +6.6%+100.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +17.0% +9.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $102.3M +2.6%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.16/gallon -.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,261.0 -.6%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,192.0/40 ft Box -3.2%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,110.7 +.33%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 +9.1%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 85.0 +9.0%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 274,342 +.2%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,357,678 -14.0%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +3.2%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -.6%
Leading Sectors
  • Oil Service +9.5%
  • Gold & Silver +8.0%
  • Pharma +5.8%
  • Energy +5.7%
  • Biotech +5.1%
Lagging Sectors
  • Restaurants -.3%
  • Internet -.6%
  • Software -1.4%
  • Semis -1.6%
  • Healthcare Providers -7.2%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (60)
  • QURE, GPCR, CAPR, CAR, LLY, MGNI, DJT, MTSR, TRML, BMI, PLAY, BHVN, FIS, DLTR, SDRL, FIVE, VIST, VTLE, SMMT, EOLS, CLPT, HRTG, MRC, DAN, AMX, TIGO, VNOM, OZK, KRUS, FANG, LBRT, RTO, IDYA, NOG, HAL, GAP, AMR, SMG, PR, JHX, FWRG, CERT, NRIX, WHD, AEO, ASNDD, TSEM, EVER, STX, HDB, PHH, KROS, ZENE, IBN, SIBN, VTMX, BAX, LEVI, TTD and VRE
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (27)
  • MOH, DVAX, PENG, SKBL, WST, PGR, CORT, TECH, BRKR, SFNC, AOSL, FMS, ALGM, NSP, MMC, RHI, YUMC, ALHC, SG, AA, HUM, NVO, QXO, SNA, GPN, MAN and UNH
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change