Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deal Optimism, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Energy/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.9 +4.8%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .34 -55.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 72.0 -2.4% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.74 -.04%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 186.2 +.27%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.96 -2.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.9 -.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 143.0 +5.0

• Total Put/Call .86 +13.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.21 -8.33%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$60.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.5 -.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 375.0 -4.0%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 210.0 -8.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.6 -.5%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 138.7 -.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 91.0 basis points -1.0 basis point

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.70 -1.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.2 -1.3%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 97.2 -.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.87 +.4%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.25 basis points unch.

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 6.25 basis point -1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 unch.
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 152.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 606.0 +1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 56.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.03% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.47% -1.0 basis point
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 94.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.6 euros/megawatt-hour -2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.3 +.9 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.7 +1.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.8 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(499 of 500 reporting) +12.7% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.46 +.01:  Growth Rate +9.2% unch., P/E 21.7 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.23% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +33.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 430.68 +.17: Growth Rate +15.3% unch., P/E 32.8 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .46 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.53 +8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.4 -.4
• US Yield Curve 46.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 38.4% +1.1 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.65% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.74 -3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting:  85.5% (+2.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 53.6%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +313 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -72 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +32 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Education -2.3% 2) Foods -2.2% 3) Gold & Silver -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TIC, SMR, HWM, NBIS, FTK, DOGZ, MBX, XYF, GE, GLXY, VERX, AGX, CCJ, LENZ, RBRK, LOAR, XMTR, IOT, RKLB, SYM, SEZL, BTSG, UNFI, SMLR, KEP, INOD, RDW, ETOR, UTHR, LTBR, SJM, CVGW and AAON

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CRCL 2) INSM 3) GTLB 4) IRBT 5) SVXY

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DBI 2) SJM 3) UTHR 4) CODI 5) HIMS

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLP 3) XLV 4) MAGS 5) IYF

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +3.5% 2) Homebuilding +3.1% 3) Energy +2.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ARAI, INSM, MTSR, CASY, NVCR, SEDG, PBF, LEGN, NBR, SBET, OUST, MESO, YPF, MESO, MAGN, VKTX, ACLS, INTC, SUPV, NVO, BBAR, APPF, DNLI, ARCT, VG, EGBN, AEHR, TDW, RNA, NX, HUN, STLA, CSTM, TFII, TXG, WLK, LYB, NUVL, LHIG, HAL, JOE, QUBT, TGT, ACHC, TSLA, EOG, BMA, A, CRMD, SWBI, CRSP, WIX and LNW

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BAX 2) CRCL 3) DK 4) HUN 5) MOMO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) INSM 2) CASY 3) SEDG 4) PLUG 5) KSS

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) XLI 3) XLF 4) ARKK 5) XLC

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CHWY)/.17
• (VSCO)/.30 

After the Close: 

• (ORCL)/1.64
• (OXM)/1.82 

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for May.
• The CPI MoM for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in April.
• The CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in April.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,268,860 barrels versus a -4,304,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +672,430 barrels versus a +5,219,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +514,000 barrels versus a +4,230,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.13% versus a +3.2% gain prior. 

2:00 pm EST

• The Federal Budget Deficit for May is estimated at -$314.5B versus $258.4B in April. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Cleveland CPI MoM for May, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for June, Morgan Stanley US Financials Conference, Oppenheimer Consumer Growth/E-Commerce Conference, Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference, (NXPI) annual meeting, (DKS) annual meeting, (CAT) annual meeting, (AAL) annual meeting, (ANF) general meeting, (CMG) annual meeting, (IDCC) annual meeting, (TGT) annual meeting, (WSM) annual meeting, (DUOL) annual meeting, (ULTA) annual meeting and the Wells Fargo Industrials/Materials Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 22.8 +6.3
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 64.2% of Issues Advancing, 33.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.2 -9.1%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$156.1M
  
• 47 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 46.7% (+4.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.1 +.3

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.4 -2.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 243.0 +.04%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 163.2 -2.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (GREED) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 11.5 -6.6%
  
• Vix 16.9 -1.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .86 +13.2%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Trade talks between the US and China will continue into a second day, according to a US official, as the two sides look to ease tensions over shipments of technology and rare earth elements.
• China’s despondent solar manufacturers face a new threat — an imminent drop-off in demand for their products.
• High inflation and economic discontent are hammering Lula’s approval. Allies say the real problem is a 79-year-old president who’s stuck in the past.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's everything new coming to iPhones, iPads and Macs later this year.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• California sued to protect itself from the Trump administration’s threats to pull federal funding over a state law that allows transgender high school athletes to compete in female sports.
• The US government could run out of enough funds to meet its financial obligations in a timely manner between mid-August and the end of September, the Congressional Budget Office said Monday.
• House Speaker Mike Johnson said he’s pressuring Senate Republicans to refrain from changing a deal to increase the state and local tax deduction cap to $40,000, pushing back on President Donald Trump’s willingness to scale back the write-off. 
• Morgan Stanley is reaching out to a broader pool of investors to shore up demand for a $5 billion debt sale for Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI.
• President Donald Trump reiterated his desire to end his public spat with Elon Musk, telling reporters he would retain Starlink internet service at the White House.
• A federal appeals court is closer to ruling on whether to keep most of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs in place longer while the legal battle over them continues.
• A political group backed by megadonor George Soros is redoubling its effort to make the reliably red state of Texas more Democratic.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @ZeroHedge

• The LA Unrest Poses A Pressing National Security Threat To The US.
• China's Need For US Chemicals Greater Than US Need For Rare Earths.
• Here's Gavin Newsom in June of 2024 telling Republicans to stop playing politics and to send some National Guard to California to help with the border. It was election time so it was time to pretend to be for law and order. (video)
• NDX seasonality is about to kick in. Stocks above the 200-day? Still low. New 52-week highs? Basically none. The upside pain? Very real. (graph)
• Wokeness will seem such a joke in retrospect that many people won't believe it was ever a serious problem. Even many of the participants will forget. But it really was a big problem.
• Sen. Tuberville Blasts Zelensky For Seeking To 'Lure NATO' Into A War Ukraine Is 'Losing'. 
• Robotaxis Enter Commercialization Phase In North America With Hyperscaling Next.
• Retailers Offer Goldman A Consumer Reality Check As One Thing Remains Clear.
• In case it’s not glaringly obvious already, if Democrats win the House back in 2026 they’re going to use Trump’s response to the LA riots as pretext to impeach him again. Remember that as you watch a Republican-controlled Congress drag its feet on codifying Trump’s EOs.
• Stock Rally Fizzles As Momentum Slumps, Apple Dumps But Silver, Oil Meltup Continues. 

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: If U.S.-China talks go well, analysts think the S&P 500 could hit new high. 
• Disney to pay Comcast $438.7 million to take full control of Hulu, ending lengthy valuation process.
• FDA approves Merck’s RSV shot for infants, ramping up competition with Sanofi and AstraZeneca.

• @MarioNawful  

• BREAKING: LAPD FIRE PROJECTILES, PUSH BACK ANTI-ICE PROTESTERS IN L.A. Police are rushing crowds and firing flashbangs to disperse anti-ICE protests near LA’s federal building. (video)
• A.G. PAM BONDI: WE HAVE FOUND THE CINDER BLOCK-THROWING SUSPECT. “The case where the guy was breaking up cinder blocks and throwing them at police cars has turned serious. A federal officer injured his hand during the incident. The FBI has identified the suspect. That guy has just been identified, and they’re executing a search warrant on his house right now. His name is Reyes, and he is going to be on the most wanted list.” (video)
• L.A. IN TURMOIL: TEAR GAS AND TROOPS DEPLOYED. LAPD’s rolling out tear gas to push rioters off the streets after they declared the protests an unlawful assembly. The National Guard’s tightening their hold around the ICE facility too, making sure no one breaks through. With troops and tear gas in play, the city’s turning into a pressure cooker fast. 
• STARLINK HITS 6 MILLION USERS, AN UNSTOPPABLE RISE. Elon’s Starlink just hit 6 million global users, adding an average of 9,900 new customers per day in the past 100 days. The network has grown from a few hundred thousand users in 2021 to millions today. From 4.6 million in December to 5 million in February and now 6 million, Starlink’s growth is relentless. (graph)
• When “peaceful protesting” involves throwing bricks at LAPD. (video)
• LAURA INGRAHAM: THIS IS WHAT YOU'RE VOTING FOR. “This is what you're voting for. And if Republicans lose the midterms and a year from now, a year and a half from now, this is gonna start blowing up everywhere. House Democrats will begin nonstop investigations into Trump world. And if Hakeem Jeffries becomes Speaker of the House, he'll encourage more of this stuff with his pronouncements about Trump the dictator.” (video)

• @LauraLoomer 

• Things are looking very bad in Texas for ⁦@JohnCornyn⁩. He is trailing ⁦@KenPaxtonTX⁩ by 17 points!
• Looks like @GavinNewsom used an AI photo to smear President Trump! 

• @GatewayPundit

• Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs Trial: ‘Jane’ Says Rapper Continued Having Drug-Fueled Sex Marathons After Feds Raided His Houses – His Defense Files Motion to Dismiss Over Alleged Witness Perjury.
• BREAKING: GOP Rep Mark Green Abruptly Announces Retirement From Congress Before End of Term, Leaving Republicans with Razor-Thin Majority.
• U.S. Health Secretary RFK Jr. Fires Entire CDC Vaccine Advisory Panel in Stunning “Clean Sweep”.
• FBI Arrests ANOTHER University of Michigan Scholar From China For Smuggling Pathogens Into US.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.25 -2.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 45.5 -2.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 94.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 -.18%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.08 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.1 +.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.48% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.09%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.44%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.57%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.