Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Escalating Iran Tensions, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Transport/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 +.14% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.41% -6.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.35% +2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 94.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.9 euros/megawatt-hour +3.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.5 -7.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.4 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.8 -1.0 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(499 of 500 reporting) +12.7% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.56 +.10:  Growth Rate +9.2% unch., P/E 21.8 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.23% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +33.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 431.04 +.36: Growth Rate +15.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.1 +.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .48 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.39 -14.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.1 -.3
• US Yield Curve 46.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.0% -1.4 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% -7.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.61% +21.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 -12.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting:  81.3% (-4.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 58.6%(+5.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +54 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -105 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -63 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/utility sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -3.2% 2) Steel -1.7% 3) Homebuilding -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IREN, GGAL, INGM, KNF, LQDA, LMT, HP, SUPV, AAON, UPWK, DFH, CWAN, MP, GTLB, CHWY and AMSC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PCG 2) GTLB 3) CRCL 4) JETS 5) CAPR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RFL 2) CHWY 3) JILL 4) VRA 5) MP

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) FENY 2) XLI 3) ARKK 4) IHI 5) ITA

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Restaurants +1.8% 2) Energy +1.5% 3) Shipping +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• QSG, QUBT, OUST, OKLO, SMR, SAIL, PLAY, SBET, NNE, RGTI, FTK, BILI, FLR, INSM, GPCR, VRNA, TLN, SEZL, FUTU, RDW, LENZ, XYF, FLYW, LEU, PZZA, FLYW, LTBR, NU, ADNT, ACHR, COOP, MDGL, CLS, RKT, SHOP, GKOS, SHOP, SBUX, EOLS, SBET, CNTA, TPC, CRDO, OSIS, ALAB, TIMB, HOND, MNR, THC, APGE, SOFI, LASR, SDGR and CCJ

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BAX 2) CRCL 3) DK 4) HUN 5) MOMO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) QUBT 2) OUST 3) PLAY 4) SAIL 5) TLN

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLU 2) XLE 3) XLC 4) XLF 5) SMH

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (LOVE)/-.81

After the Close: 

• (ADBE)/4.97
• (RH)/-.09 

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.5% decline in April.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.4% decline in April.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 242K versus 247K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1910K versus 1904K prior. 

12:00 pm EST

• The Household Change in Net Worth for 1Q. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Cleveland Fed CPI MoM for May, 30Y T-Bond auction, WASDE report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Wells Fargo Industrials Conference, (CAH) investor day, (CPNG) annual meeting, (LYV) annual meeting, (IR) annual meeting, (GNRC) annual meeting, (TKO) annual meeting, (HIMS) annual meeting, (MSTR) annual meeting,  and the (BLK) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 21.6 -1.2
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 67.1% of Issues Advancing, 30.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.39 +26.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$203.6M
  
• 51 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 47.3% (+1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 67.3 +2.2

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.5 +2.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 243.7 +.2%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 165.6 +1.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (GREED) +2.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.2 -36.1%
  
• Vix 16.5 -2.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .66 -22.4%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• The US and China have agreed in principle to a framework for deescalating trade tensions by implementing the consensus they reached in Geneva.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio rebuked five allies over sanctions they imposed on two members of Israel’s cabinet as fissures between the US and its partners widen over the war in Gaza.
• Defense contractor Voyager Technologies raised $383 million in an upsized US IPO Tuesday, pricing its shares above a marketed range. 
• Deere expects sales of machinery such as tractors and combines to Brazil will overtake those to Europe in the next five to 10 years, eventually making it the company’s second-biggest market.
• The US and Mexico are closing in on a deal that would remove President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on steel imports up to a certain volume.
• General Motors plans to invest $4 billion in its US manufacturing plants over the next two years to boost output of electric and gas-powered vehicles.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge 

• Appeals Court Keeps Trump's Tariffs In Place For Now.
• Mexican Senate President Revives Territorial Claims Amid Los Angeles Civil Unrest. (pic)
• Mapping Out Welfare Shockwave By Retailer If SNAP Cuts Passed.
• US, China "Agree In Principle On Framework For Implementing Geneva Consensus".
• China Taps $1.5 Trillion Fund To Offer Cheap Mortgages, Boost Housing Demand.
• Dr. Naomi Wolf: War On Ranchers And Erosion Of Food Freedom.
• The threat from the radical left is clear: Don’t enforce immigration laws. If you do, left-wing street militias will burn down cities, and Democratic politicians will back the rioters. The president is absolutely right to reject this threat.
• *BESSENT: HAVE TO GO BACK TO DC TO TESTIFY BEFORE CONGRESS. *BESSENT: TALKS ARE ONGOING. *BESSENT: US OFFICIALS WILL BE CONTINUING WITH CHINESE OFFICIALS. *BESSENT: WE HAD TWO DAYS OF PRODUCTIVE TALKS. 
• Rogue NGOs Prepare For Nationwide Color Revolution; Walmart Heiress Calls For "Mobilization".
• 'Tremors' - Momo Meltdown Quietly Accelerates As Bonds, Bitcoin & Bullion Tread Water. 

• @CNBC

• 2025 CNBC Disruptor 50: See the full list of companies leading new era of AI breakthroughs and riches.
• Elon Musk says Tesla robotaxi rides in Austin 'tentatively' set to begin June 22.
• Zuckerberg makes his biggest AI bet as Meta nears $14 billion stake in Scale AI, hires founder Wang.
• Casey's General Stores CEO on why consumers are focused on value.

• @WSJ

• Chatbots are replacing Google searches, eliminating the need to click on blue links and tanking referrals to news sites. As a result, traffic that publishers relied on for years is plummeting. 
• Congressional lawmakers made hundreds of stock trades as markets tanked following President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs in early April. (graph)

• @MarioNawful   

• Stores boarding up for those.... “peaceful protestors” as L.A. approaches nightfall. (video) 
• CHICAGO ICE PROTESTS: ARRESTS MADE AS HUNDREDS GATHER IN FEDERAL PLAZA. Hundreds of protesters gathered in Chicago’s Federal Plaza to rally against ICE enforcement nationwide. As the demonstration escalated, Chicago Police made arrests to clear the streets. The protests are part of a growing wave of nationwide dissent over federal immigration policies, with Chicago now joining other cities in the spotlight. Tensions are high, with scenes of confrontation playing out downtown. (video)
• VIOLENCE AND LOOTING SPREAD ACROSS LOS ANGELES AS PROTESTS ESCALATE. Looters ransacked medical marijuana dispensaries, shoe, electronics, and jewelry stores in Los Angeles, with police quickly moving in. At least 150 arrests have been made since Friday as protests intensify. Mayor Karen Bass called out the agitators, rejecting claims that violent actors support immigrant communities. In Santa Ana, a peaceful protest turned violent as demonstrators hurled fireworks, rocks, and bottles at police, who responded with tear gas and rubber bullets.
• CATHIE WOOD: TESLA IS THE LARGEST AI PROJECT ON EARTH. "Tesla is the largest AI project on Earth. I posted that on X and Elon liked it, so it must be true, but it is true. If our research is correct, we believe that the entire ecosystem associated with autonomous taxi networks is going to be worth eight to 10 trillion dollars in terms of revenue generation in the next five to 10 years. And if you want to put that in context, the entire GDP of the world today is about 130 trillion dollars. So 10 trillion is going to move the needle." (video)
• TRUMP: I SPOKE TO NEWSOM FOR 16 MINUTES AND TOLD HIM TO GET HIS ACT TOGETHER. "I spoke to him for over 16 minutes and I told him to get his act together. But he hasn't been able to do that.” (video)

• @LauraLoomer 

• Ironically, Christy Walton doesn’t even live in the US. She literally lives in MEXICO where she is taking out anti-Trump ads. I’m told by a source that other members of the Walton family, which owns @Walmart, begged her not to take the ad out but she didn’t listen. She is supporting the pro-illegal alien riots all the way from her mansion in Mexico. Maybe she should just let the illegals move into her multiple mansions in Mexico. Thank you @Walmart for releasing a statement!

• @GatewayPundit

• Greg Gutfeld Explains Why the Media is Actively Avoiding Interviews With Los Angeles Rioters (VIDEO).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 -.5 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 43.75 -1.75 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 94.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 71.3 +1.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.46% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.2 +.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.35%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.28%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.29%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.