Monday, June 30, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @ZeroHedge 
  • @CNBC 
  • @FoxNews
  • @GatewayPundit
  • @WallStreetApes 
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @LawrenceSellin
  • Chinese Fifth Column. In addition to her alleged criminal activities, Linda Sun (Sun Wen 孙雯), former Deputy Chief of Staff to NY Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul, has been deeply involved with Pro-CCP Chinese-American groups and the Chinese Consulate. There are many like her.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.75 +.25 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 50.0 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 94.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.21%.
  • Polymarket: US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 54.0% unch. 
  • Polymarket:  Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 44.0% -16.0 percentage points
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.03 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.17 +.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.4 -1.1%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.21% -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 +.5%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.15%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.03%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deal Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 +.3%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.23% -5.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.27% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 94.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.11%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.9 euros/megawatt-hour -2.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.4 -1.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.3 +.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.6 -4.5 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +2.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 280.44 +.27:  Growth Rate +10.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% +14.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 445.85 +.77: Growth Rate +19.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.6 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .49 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .96 -41.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.9% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 46.7% +2.4 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 75.0% (+.2 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 59.9%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Polymarket:
  • US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 54.0% unch. 
  • Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 60.0% -15.0 percentage points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -97 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -137 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +163 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Shipping -1.8% 2) Retail -.5% 3) Energy -.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • JHX, APOG, OPFI, VICR, MRC, FLNG, TTAM, YPF, SPRY, ARQQ, BJ, NXT and FTV
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DLR 2) CFG 3) AEO 4) CZR 5) STNE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CHE 2) PROK 3) VSTS 4) LPRO 5) ENPH
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLC 2) XLE 3) GDX 4) XLY 5) IGV

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy +1.9% 2) Social Media +1.7% 3) I-Banking +1.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DNA, BUR, JOBY, MGNI, NMAX, GMS, HNGE, HPE, NEON, HOOD, SG, GLXY, METC, BULL, AMR, DAVE, JNPR, RGTI, SEZL, SOUN, FSLR, INDV, CAVA, BE, QUBT, HCC, SOFI, CRNC, BTU, BLCO, BKSY, LIF, RIOT, NPCE, RDDT, WNS, SEDG, IREN, TIC, SERV, CELC, AEHR, EGBN, OSCR, ACHR, ENVX, AEVA, ORCL, SYM, CLBR, NU, PRVA, WHR, CYD, INOD, FTK, APP, CAE, MARA, AVAV, SMCI, NVMI and CLSK
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) JMIA 2) VOR 3) CFG 4) AXP 5) STNG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PLUG 2) VOR 3) GMS 4) RUN 5) HPE
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) VGT 3) XLK 4) IYF 5) IFRA
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (MSM)/1.03
After the Close: 
  • (STZ)/3.31
  • (GBX)/.98 
Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

  • ISM Manufacturing for June is estimated to rise to 48.8 versus 48.5 in May. 
  • ISM Prices Paid for June is estimated to fall to 69.3 versus 69.4 in May.
  • Construction Spending MoM for May is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.4% decline in April.
  • JOLTS Job Openings for May is estimated to fall to 7300K versus 7391K in April. 
10:30 am EST
  • Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for June.

Afternoon

  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for June is estimated to fall to $15.3M versus $15.65M in May. 

Upcoming Splits

  • (APG) 3-for-2
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for July, Texas Services Sector Outlook for June, weekly API crude oil stock report and the (SIG) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +6.8% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.2 -3.1
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 52.2% of Issues Advancing, 45.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .87 -25.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$178.3M
  • 101 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
  • 47.1% (-.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 +3.2
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 74.4 -.6%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 248.4 +.03%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 172.0 +.97%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (GREED) +3.0
  • Polymarket: US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 52.0% -2.0 percentage point
  • Polymarket:  Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 67.0% -8.0 percentage points
  • 1-Day Vix 10.1 -17.4%
  • Vix 17.2 +5.2%
  • Total Put/Call .80 +8.1%