Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 6,597.0 +1.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 45,927.0 +1.2%

• NASDAQ 22,177.9 +2.1%

• Russell 2000 2,407.2 +.6%

• NYSE FANG+ 16,015.0 +1.9%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 228.7 +3.5%

• Wilshire 5000 65,352.0 +1.7%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,636.4 +2.6%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,993.3 +.7%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 891.01 unch.

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 255.6 +.1%
  

• NYSE Technology 6,787.5 +5.1%

• Transports 15,696.9 -.1%

• Utilities 1,102.6 +2.1%

• MSCI Europe Banks 98.7 +4.1%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 52.2 +3.5%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 238.75 +.47%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 126.5 +.24%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 579,961 +.92%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.1 +123.8%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 2,114 +1,554

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -12.9 +2.5%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 102,428 -6.4%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,987,861 +3.94%

• Total Put/Call .79 +8.3%

• OEX Put/Call 1.22 -4.4%

• ISE Sentiment 169.0 +11.0

• NYSE Arms .72 -44.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 84.4 +4.0%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .71 +10.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.51 +8.0 basis points 
  

• Volatility(VIX) 14.6 -4.0%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .21 -84.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 13.5 -14.7%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.7 -4.5%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.9 -2.7%

• Smart Money Flow Index 23,031.5 +2.7%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  86.1 +5.5

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.303 Trillion +.6%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$2.706 Million

• AAII % Bulls 28.0 -14.4%

• AAII % Bears 49.5 +14.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 55.0 (NEUTRAL) +3.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 300.3 -.01%

• Crude Oil 62.62/bbl. +1.2%

• Reformulated Gasoline 198.42 +.99%

• Natural Gas 2.94 -2.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.9%
  

• Heating Oil 228.99 -.05% 
• Newcastle Coal 100.7 (1,000/metric ton) -7.0%

• Gold 3,649.0 +1.7%
• Silver 42.3 +3.1%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 474.2 +2.0%

• Copper 465.5 +2.5%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 337.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.0%

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.09%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 10,900.0 USD/metric tonne unch.

• CME Lumber  587.0 +.3%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,393.9 +1.6%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 337.5 USD/Short Ton unch.

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.1% +.1 percentage point

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.1 -2.9 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.24 +2.3%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 353.0 -28.2%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.7 -17.2%
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $206.0 Billion($1,279.50 Savings Per Taxpayer) +$1.0 Billion
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(497 of 500 reporting) +12.6% unch.

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.15 +1.9:  Growth Rate +11.5% +.7 percentage point, P/E 22.6 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.4% +.5 percentage point
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 485.62 +8.75: Growth Rate +18.8% +2.2 percentage points, P/E 32.9 +.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.1 -8.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.1 -1.0 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.5 -.4 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 92.5%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 9/17

• US Dollar Index 97.61 -.15%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,842.7 +.33%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 116,202.0 +4.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 195.6 +.3%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.95 +.2%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 50.5 -7.25 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.06% -2.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.558 Trillion +.06%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $4.777 Billion +1.9%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.0 -.1%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 195.6 -1.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 81.0 -3.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.7 -1.7%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.1 -7.1%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 132.8 -3.0%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 76.3 +2.1%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.7 -6.6%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5 +.4%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 125.6 +.3%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.8% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.8% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.2% +30.0 basis points
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.5% -10.0 basis points
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.0% +5.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.0% +16.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 +9.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 unch.

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -36.0 basis points +1.5 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -25.25 -2.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.25 +.5 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 47.9 -4.1%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 200.0 -1.6% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 221.0 +22.0 
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 53.9 -6.7%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 120.5 -4.6%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 140.2 -2.9%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 124.0 -6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 589.0 +7.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .49 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.8% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,400.8B -.2%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 240,500 +4.2%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 51.4 -1.8%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.54% -5.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 297,700 +9.3%

• Weekly Retail Sales +6.6% +50.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +6.0% -2.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $92.0M -10.2%

• Nationwide Gas $3.19/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,111.0 +6.7%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,043.6/40 ft Box -2.9%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,125.3 -2.1%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 47.5 +35.7%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 63.9 +3.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 253,497 -11.6%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,610,879 +35.8% 
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 48.0% unch.

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +2.5%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +.1%

Leading Sectors

• Disk Drives +10.7%

• AI/Innovation +5.6%
• Education +4.9%

• Computer Hardware +4.9%
  

• Gold & Silver +4.4%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Restaurants -1.8%

• Foods -1.8%
  

• Medical Equipment -1.9%

• Homebuilding -2.3%
  

• Gambling -3.1%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (33)

• IONQ, QSG, WBD, RGTI, BTDR, KMTS, AMRK, DFDV, SERV, BKSY, RKLB, QBTS, QUBT, TSLA, DAKT, BMNR, INOD, CIFR, CENX, PGY, APLD, MARA, BILI, PSKY, MU, EH, JMIA, AA, SMCI, SLG, CAMT and JOBY

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (14)

• PFE, SNPS, DKNG, LULU, RH, RBRK, KALV, BMA, SLNO, TARS, RIVN, FERG, MRNA and BNTX

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Fed Rate-Cut Optimism, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -183 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my financial/tech/utility sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (HAIN)/.03

After the Close: 

• (PLAY)/.91

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Sept. is estimated to fall to 4.5 versus 11.9 in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The BofA Financials CEO Conference, Wells Fargo Consumer Conference and the RBC Industrials Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day

• @ZeroHedge    

• Mexico's 50% Tariff On Chinese Cars Will Set Off Global Butterfly Effects.
• US Deficit Explodes In August Despite Rising Tariff Revenues As Government Spending Soars.
• Exodus: Affordability Crisis Sends Americans Packing From Big Cities.
• Brazilian Supreme Court Issues Harsh 27-Year Sentence For Bolsonaro, Trump Responds.
• EU To Resist Trump Pressure To Hit China & India With 100% Tariffs.
• US State Department Warns Visa Holders Against Cheering Charlie Kirk's Assassination.
• 77% of Republicans believe it is always unacceptable to feel joy at the death of someone they oppose, while only 38% of Democrats share this view (YouGov).
• BREAKING: Per multiple federal sources to @FoxNews, the suspect arrested in the grisly machete beheading of a motel manager in Dallas, TX yesterday is a Cuban illegal alien who was released into the US by the Biden admin in January despite having an active deportation order. I'm told YORDANIS COBOS-MARTINEZ was released from ICE custody by the Biden admin on 1/13/2025, one week before Trump took office, due to "no significant likelihood of removal in the forseeable future".
• BREAKING: The Secret Service and NYPD Counterterrorism Task Force have a manhunt underway for a person who has made threats against President Trump, who is attending tonight's game at Yankee Stadium. The FDNY and NYPD have issued alerts to their members to use caution.
• *OPENAI EQUITY STAKE IN PUBLIC BENEFIT CORP VALUED AT $100 BLN.
• *MICROSOFT, OPENAI REACH PRELIMINARY UNDERSTANDING ON ALLIANCE. 
• Of Buggy Whips And AI Chips In PA.
• "He Was Definitely Murdered": Watch Sam Altman Squirm As Tucker Grills Him Over Whistleblower Death. 
• *SUPERMICRO BEGINS VOLUME SHIPMENTS OF NVIDIA BLACKWELL ULTRA.
• Father Of Ukrainian Girl Brutally Murdered In US Missed Funeral Due To Martial Law. 
• They want to dehumanize us, so they can demonize us. They want to demonize us, so they can kill us. The mainstream media is 100% complicit in Charlie Kirk’s death. (video)
• Calm Consumer Prices Send Rate-Cut Odds Soaring As Gold Tops Inflation-Adjusted Record High.

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to trade higher, tracking Wall Street gains.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
• Stock futures are flat after rate-cut hopes send market to new highs: Live updates. 
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Adobe, RH, Super Micro Computer & more. 

• @TheTranscript 

• "Microsoft & OpenAI have signed a non-binding MOU for the next phase of our partnership. We are actively working to finalize contractual terms in a definitive agreement". $MSFT: +2% AH.
• Adobe CFO: "[We] delivered record Q3 revenue, with strength in subscription revenue across both Digital Media and Digital Experience segments. We’re raising our FY25 total revenue and EPS targets..." $ADBE: +3% AH. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.5 -2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 39.5 -1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.94 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.47 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 83.5 +1.0%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.03% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.11%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.06%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rallying into Afternoon on Falling Long-Term Rates, Surging Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 +.15%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.02% -1.0 basis point
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.02% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.3 euros/megawatt-hour -2.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.9 -8.3

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.4 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.4 -1.1 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(497 of 500 reporting) +12.6% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 291.92 +.13:  Growth Rate +11.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.6 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.4% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 485.09 +.52: Growth Rate +18.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.0 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.47 -7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.6 -.1
• US Yield Curve 48.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.1% +10.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.6% -1.4 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.95% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.69 unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 86.0% (+12.1 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 80.5%(+12.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +262 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +72 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -.3% 2) Shipping unch. 3) Utilities unch.

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AMN, VIRT, NAMS, WAY, TVTX, CCRN, ATRO and RNA

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BITF 2) XME 3) CVE 4) SNDK 5) KGS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SOC 2) VRA 3) HOFT 4) LSAK 5) UNCY

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) GDX 2) XLV 3) XLP 4) XLU 5) IYW

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume