Monday, September 15, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @ZeroHedge    
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful
  • @newstart_2024
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @infolibnews
  • @Defence_Index
  • @annvandersteel
  • @HealthRanger
  • @VigilantFox
  • @BennyJohnson
  • DNI Tulsi Gabbard delivers powerful remarks at Charlie Kirk’s Kennedy Center prayer vigil: “Ultimately, for every one of us, the time that we have in this world is temporary. Our time will come, sooner or later. And so the critical question that we have for ourselves is, whatever time we have, what are we doing with it? How are we making the most of every day that we have?” “Charlie Kirk, every single day, carried out his mission, motivated by his faith in Jesus Christ and his unwavering dedication to defending Our God-given freedoms enshrined in our Constitution and Bill of Rights.” (video)
  • @OwenShroyer1776
  • @NicetryMYAH
  • @benwehrman
  • @In2ThinAir
  • @BrittRooted
  • @IV_Musketeer
  • @dom_lucre
  • BREAKING: Disturbing footage of liberal children wishing death on prominent conservatives Donald Trump, JD Vance, and Elon Musk when their mom told them that she had ‘the best news ever’ only to be surprised with news of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce getting married. Dear God it is far worse than I ever imagined… (video)
  • @VladTheInflator
  • @RyanMattaMedia
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.0 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 36.5 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.96 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 83.1 +.5%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.04% unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.2 +.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%. 
  • S&P 500 futures unch. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.7 +6.0%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .26 +15.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 83.2 -.4% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.96 +.25%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 195.73 unch.
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.75 -1.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.1 +.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 202.0 +39.0
  • Total Put/Call .87 +10.1%
  • NYSE Arms .96 -18.0%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$113.7M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.0 -1.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 350.0 -.7%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 210.0 -11.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.0 -1.8%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 118.5 -1.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 78.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.9 +.9%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 139.4 -.6%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 75.6 -.9%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.57 +.24%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.0 basis points +.25 basis point
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -41.25 basis points -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.55 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 116.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 588.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 50.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 +.2%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.04% -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.99% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.2 USD/Metric Tonne +1.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.2 euros/megawatt-hour -1.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.7 -3.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.9 -1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.3 -5.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +8.3% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.44 +.52:  Growth Rate +11.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 22.6 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 486.22 +1.13: Growth Rate +18.9% +.3 percentage point, P/E 33.3 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 +8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.47 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.6 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 49.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.1% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.6% -1.0 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 +3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 74.8% (-5.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 68.2%(-5.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -68 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +49 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Energy -.3% 2) Shipping unch. 3) Utilities unch.
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • PR, TXN, MAZE, IDR, NEGG, PHR, OCSL, GBDC, MENS, ARCC, CTVA, LRN and FVRR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NAKA 2) BITF 3) GRAB 4) AR 5) SBSW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) HAIN 2) ATYR 3) LRN 4) RELY 5) CTVA
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) IGV 2) KRE 3) XRT 4) SOXX 5) VGT

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives +4.1% 2) Nuclear +3.2% 3) Computer Hardware +2.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RMBS, OKLO, ORLA, CSIQ, PONY, SKYT, LMND, UPBD, SITM, HROW, SA, STX, AAOI, NNE, LI, VSAT, JKS, CVLT, CRC, TNK, ALB, KRYS, RVLV, JACK, CRWV, BILI, ZIM, DQ, REAL, OTEX, ASML, GTM, AI, SEI, PACS, ASC, SEI, SKE, SNDK, GILT, CHWY, NSSC, FIVE, PGY, AFRM, PSTG, TSLA, PSTG, CIEN, STNG, WBTN, INOD, LASR, OPRA, WDC, PLAY, HL, DLO, SPT, STM, LINC, NX, FRO, DRD, TLK, SCCO, VECO, DHT, BRKR, GOOG, CPNG, GSAT, KVYO and SVV
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) NAKA 2) REI 3) FSLY 4) OPI 5) LAZR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) GLUE 2) ATLC 3) UPBD 4) CRWV 5) STX
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLP 2) XLF 3) ARKK 4) XLK 5) BLOK
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (FERG)/3.01
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.5% gain in July.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in July.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Aug. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in July.
  • NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for Sept.
  • The Import Price Index MoM for Aug. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.4% gain in July.
  • The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in July.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for Aug. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.1% gain in July. 

9:15 am EST

  • Industrial Production MoM for Aug. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.1% decline in July.
  • Manufacturing  Production for Aug. is estimated to fall -.2% versus unch. in July.
  • Capacity Utilization for Aug. is estimated to fall to 77.4% versus 77.5% in July.

10:00 am EST

  • Business Inventories for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in June.
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to 33.0 versus 32.0 in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, 20Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, JPMorgan All-Stars Conference, Scotia Bank Back to School Conference, Wells Fargo Consumer Conference, DA Davidson Industrials/Services Conference, (RL) investor day, RBC Communications Infra Conference, (WDAY) analyst day, RBC  Industrials Conference and the BNP Paribas Power Up Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -2.7% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.2 +1.0
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 84.7% of Issues Advancing, 15.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.07 -8.6% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$157.9M
  • 133 New 52-Week Highs, 24 New Lows
  • 60.8% (+.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 65.1 +2.1
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 82.5 -1.3%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 258.0 +.8%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 165.6 +1.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 57.0 (GREED from NEUTRAL) +3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 7.4 -36.1%
  • Vix 15.4 +4.1%
  • Total Put/Call .85 +7.6%