Thursday, September 18, 2025

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge    
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful  
  • @BasedMikeLee 
  • The Biden Admin paid Reuters over $300 million in government contracts. 11 different Biden government agencies targeted Elon's businesses. All 11 agencies paid millions to Reuters. Reuters then won the Pulitzer Prize for "their work on Elon Musk and misconduct at his businesses". This is what fascism looks like. (pic)
  • @newstart_2024
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @ElonMusk 
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @wideawake_media
  • @DocAhmadMalik
  • @uncensoreddotai
  • Trump posted a picture of him and Charlie Kirk hugging in front of an American and Israeli flag the day after Kirk’s assassination titled ‘Shlomo perl.’ What does Shlomo perl mean? (pic)
  • @jakeshieldsajj
  • @ProjectConstitu
  • @SpeakWithDeeDee
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.75 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 33.75 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.97 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 -.2%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 84.6 +.6%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.11% +1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.7 -.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.04%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on AI-Induced Corporate Profit Margin Expansion Hopes, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Tech/Construction Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.58 -.13%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.10% +2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.97% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.0 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.6 +4.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.3 +.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.6 -.3 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 500 reporting) +5.7% +.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.83 +.12:  Growth Rate +11.8% unch., P/E 22.7 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 487.17 +.23: Growth Rate +19.1% unch., P/E 33.5 +.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .88 -16.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.0 +.3
  • US Yield Curve 53.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 38.3% -1.8 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.73 -3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 82.3% (+.8 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 51.9%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +430 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +20 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +50 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/tech/industrial/financial sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Electric Vehicles -.9% 2) Energy -.7% 3) Restaurants -.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ARM, CTRI, TME, COCO, COKE, VIST, WDS, IRS, SKE, PAM, NUE, CBRL, SPGI, TGS, DRI, BMA, YPF, SGHC, GGAL, RCAT, FDS and EPSM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DLO 2) XLP 3) SPXU 4) DRI 5) EWC
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NUE 2) REPL 3) CBRL 4) STUB 5) DOW
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) ARKK 2) IBB 3) IGV 4) XLY 5) GDX

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +2.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Semis +3.5% 2) Alt Energy +3.1% 3) Construction +2.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ETNB, NTLA, INTC, METC, TIC, RGTI, CLSK, SLDE, OKLO, CRWD, FORM, CAMT, FORM, SMR, SKYT, SNPS, SLNO, MKSI, SEI, QBTS, AMPX, AMSC, RDN, STEP, RMBS, SNDK, ICHR, AEIS, SERV, CEVA, QUBT, KLAC, NVO, GPRE, AMAT, ASML, BMNR, IONQ, CCRN, SOUN, AKRO, JEF, ACMR, SAP, LULU, GRRR and NEWT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) QSI 2) COMP 3) CNQ 4) NTLA 5) XLI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) INTC 2) NTSK 3) CRWD 4) SNPS 5) CDLX
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLK 2) XLC 3) SMH 4) BAI 5) XLF
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases 
  • None of note

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly US Baker Hughes rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +4.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.9 +3.4
  • 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
  • 65.0% of Issues Advancing, 32.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.01 +31.2% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$136.6M
  • 128 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
  • 61.8% (+3.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 68.4 +1.3
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 84.7 +1.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 260.3 +.3%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 163.2 +1.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 63.0 (GREED) +5.0
  • 1-Day Vix 11.5 -22.2%
  • Vix 15.4 -1.8%
  • Total Put/Call .76 -28.3%