Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Regional Banks +2.0% 2) Homebuiders +1.6% 3) Semis +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FBRX, STAA, YSS, WOLF, BF/B, MPLT, INBX, CAL, AXTI, WSR, GLXY, TPB, GBX, AEHR, JBIO, BWAY, PSIX, STZ, AVBP, PVLA, KODK, INFQ, ELVN, WULF, INSP, ADTN, VRDN, MESO, CTS, NBIS, INFQ, MYRG, CROX, URGN, AMZN, PWP, UCB, CRWV, SSSS, EXTR, HUT, MRVL, APLE, TH, AXIA, LEVI, ASND, BDC, DBD, RHLD, MDA, FOXA, RPM and HLIO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BB 2) SPIR 3) NN 4) PRMW 5) SOXX 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) EOSE 2) STAA 3) FBRX 4) WSR 5) BF/B

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLI 3) IGV 4) XLK 5) XLY

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST 

• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for March.
• The CPI MoM for March is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.3% gain in Feb.
• The Core CPI MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Feb. 

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Feb. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.1% gain in Jan.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Jan.
• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for April is estimated to fall to 51.5 versus 53.3 in March.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for April is estimated at +4.2% versus prior expectations of a +3.8% gain.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for Feb.  

2:00 pm EST

• The Federal Budget Deficit for March is estimated at -$153.3B versus -$160.5B in Feb. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Cleveland CPI MoM for March, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -8.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.9 +.7
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 60.6% of Issues Advancing, 37.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.60 -14.0%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$153.5M
  
• 122 New 52-Week Highs, 39 New Lows
• 54.9% (+1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 61.1 +1.3

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 70+ days 64.0% +4.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 9.0% unch.
• Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30th 49.0% +10.0 percentage points 
• US Invades Iran before 2027 30.0% -4.0 percentage points
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 55.0% +6.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 107.2 +.7%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 94.0% +2.0 percentage points
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 512.5 +16.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 249.7 -.3%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 136.6 -.8%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 36.0 (FEAR) +6.0
• 1-Day Vix 13.0 -21.1%
  
• Vix 19.8 -5.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .98 unch.

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.0 -2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 45.0 -5.0 basis points
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.7 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%. 
• Crude Oil 97.0/bbl. +2.7% 
• Gold 4,737.0 USD/t oz. -.9%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.64 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.7 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 108.3 +.8%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.30% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.65% +4.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.3 +1.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.09%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.14%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.23%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and transport shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (NEOG)/.06
• (SMPL)/.40
• (WLTH)/.12 

After the Close: 

• (BB)/.04
• (WDFC)/1.41 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST 

• Personal Income for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Jan.
• Personal Spending for Feb. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in Jan.
• The Core PCE Price Index MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Jan.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 210K versus 202K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1829K from 1841K prior.
• 4Q GDP estimate revisions. 

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.5% gain in Jan. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, 30Y T-Bond auction, WASDE report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, Dallas Fed PCE for Feb., weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (DOW) general meeting and the JPMorgan Retail Round Up Forum could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +23.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.2 -6.9
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 83.7% of Issues Advancing, 15.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 2.08 +50.7%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$146.6.0M
  
• 93 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 54.1% (+11.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.8 +11.9

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 70+ days 60.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 9.0% unch.
• Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30th 39% +31.0 percentage points 
• US Invades Iran before 2027 34.0% -16.0 percentage points
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 49.0% +11.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 107.2 +3.4%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 92.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 493.5 -26.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 251.7 +1.3%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 138.6 +2.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 30.0 (Moved to FEAR from EXTREME FEAR) +8.0
• 1-Day Vix 13.7 -57.0%
  
• Vix 20.8 -19.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .99 +6.5%