Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.7 +.4%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.1 +1.4% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.36 -2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.3 +1.7%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 149.6 -.6%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 56.1 -2.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 -.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.8 +1.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.4 +1.5

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -64.80 +2.6

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.5 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(484 of 500 reporting) +27.7% +.3 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 360.96 +.81:  Growth Rate +23.0% +.3 percentage point, P/E 21.0 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.48% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +67.2% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 889.13 +4.18: Growth Rate +124.6% +1.1 percentage points, P/E 21.0 +.7 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.14 +6.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 42.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 188.81 +1.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.2 euros/megawatt-hour +4.8%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.0% +.2 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% -.8 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.47% +3.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.68 +4.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 93.0% (-.2 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 77.7%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +490 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -162 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/energy sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -2.0% 2) Pharma -2.0% 3) Gold & Silver -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TM, CME, SSTK, WSE, CELC, ASTS, KRMN, PNTG, EQX, DXYZ, CEG, CBOE, CRSR, FLY, UMAC, SMMT, JBIO, NUVL, VSAT, ALHC, GRAL, WOLF, SOC and OCS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWJ 2) ANF 3) BHC 4) WEN 5) ROST

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WSE 2) RDW 3) QCOM 4) GOSS 5) CEG

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) XLV 3) BAI 4) FTEC 5) XLE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gambling +6.5% 2) Computer Services +6.5% 3) Software +6.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FLNC, ELMT, TMHC, ALMU, ALOY, SKM, MRAM, MDB, TWLO, NBIS, HUBS, BRUN, KVYO, ARM, CRWV, MNDY, APPN, EWTX, TNDM, OKTA, ERAS, SAIC, PURR, ADEA, INFQ, DDOG, ZETA, CNK, PATH, ZM, NOK, MNTN, ZS, CLYM, EC, CRM, EC, CMPS, GLBE, SNOW, GPRK, NOW, DELL, NET, ORCL, RILY, MEC, INOD, VSH, S, HNGE, FRSH, HIMX, IBM, CXDO, HPQ, GTLB, CIB, IBM, RBRK, AI, TEM, CIB, DSGX, WDAY, USAR, NICE, VEEV, LYFT, HPE, NCNO, SHIP, QFIN, AMBA, QUBT, CGNT, NNE, FPS, SAIL, PK, PTRN, RCAT, PGY, RVMD, TBBB, PDD, TTEK, OKLO, ESTC, LOMA, SYM, IIV and CRESY

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GEHC 2) BRZE 3) FINV 4) CXDO 5) SIG 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MGM 2) SPCE 3) FLNC 4) OPTU 5) ARM 

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) PSI 2) DRAM 3) IGV 4) NASA 5) SMH

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DG)/1.89
• (ODD)/-.03
• (SIG)/1.38
• (VSCO)/.32 
• (DCI)/1.05 

After the Close: 

• (GTLB)/.21
• (PANW)/.79
• (ULTA)/6.89 

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for April is estimated at 6866K versus 6866K in March. 

Afternoon

• Omdia Total Vehicle Sales for May is estimated to rise to 16.0M versus 15.92M in April. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Hammack speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, Baird Consumer/Tech/Services Conference, Evercore TMT Conference, William Blair Growth Stock Conference, (JOBY) annual meeting, (HOOD) annual meeting, (GM) annual meeting and the BofA Tech Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.25 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 39.5 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%.
• Crude Oil 89.50/bbl. +2.4%
• Gold 4,572.7 USD/t oz. -.44% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.64 +.18%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.31 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 123.5 +.7%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.47% +3.0 basis points. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.94% +1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 +.33%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.26%.
• S&P 500 futures +.23%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.47%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% Net Long heading into the week.

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.25 +.5 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 40.0 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.08%. 
• Crude Oil 87.93/bbl. -1.1% 
• Gold 4,545.5 USD/t oz. +.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.60 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.33 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 123.9 +.%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.44% -1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.95% -3.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 +.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.18%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.06%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.20%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.